IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on Czech Republic provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for Czech Republic’s wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 1Q2011. Operators covered for Czech Republic include: Telefonica O2 Czech Republic, T-Mobile International AG, and Vodafone Group Plc. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.

IEMR’s Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.

Executive Summary

Subscriber growth has increased slightly in Czech Republic's wireless market
+3.0% industry average subscriber growth in 1Q.2009

ARPU levels declined at T-Mobile and Vodafone in the latest quarter
-4.4% industry average ARPU growth in 1Q.2009

Minutes of Use per Subscriber are increasing
+8.6% industry average MOU/Sub growth in 1Q.2009

Significant EBITDA declines across operators in the latest quarter
Industry average EBITDA growth rate was -15.0% in 1Q.2009

So what is IEMR’s Forecast?

Total wireless subscribers in Czech Republic to reach 14.7 million in 2013

• We forecast that total wireless subscribers in Czech Republic will increase from 13.1 million in 2008 to 14.7 million in 2013.
• We expect that all of the operators will see their numbers of subscribers increase over the next five years. Our model predicts that the largest operator, T-Mobile, will see its subscriber base increase from 5.4 million in 2008 to 5.9 million in 2013.
• We also forecast that Telefonica will have 5.3 million subscribers and Vodafone will have 3.4 million subscribers in 2013.

• T-Mobile will continue to lead the Czech Republic in market shares. We forecast that T-Mobile's subscriber market share will decline slightly from 36.6% in 2008 to 36.4% in 2013. T-Mobile's share will also decline from 41.3% in 2008 to 40.5% in 2013.
• Instead, Vodafone's subscriber market share will be increasing from 22.0% in 2008 to 23.1% in 2013.

• Our model predicts that the industry average ARPU will decrease from CZK 526 in 2008 to CZK 480 in 2013. We forecast that T-Mobile's monthly ARPU will decline to 448 while that of Vodafone declines to 456 in 2013.
• However, we expect that Telefonica's ARPU level will increase from CZK 518 in 2008 to CZK 532 in 2013.

• We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will fall from 45.3% in 2008 to 41.8% in 2013.
• At the operator level, we expect that Telefonica's EBITDA margin will fall from 45.3% to 38.4% and Vodafone's margin will fall from 38.3% to 30.5% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
• However, we expect that profitability at T-Mobile will improving in the coming years. Our model forecasts that T-Mobile's EBITDA margin will increase from 49.6% in 2008 to 52.3% in 2013.