While new vehicle sales in Australia were down by over 20% for 4M09, there are signs that thegovernment's stimulus plan and tax rebates are beginning to take effect. Sales for April were upmarginally on March in seasonally adjusted terms, rising by 1.7%. The potential for increased demandhas prompted Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries (FCAI) CEO, Andrew McKellar, to suggest thatpassing legislation for tax breaks sooner rather than later should boost new car sales. The current pace isslightly below BMI's forecast for a 13% decline by year-end to 855,562 units. However, the passing oflegislation for tax breaks on car purchases would provide a sufficient boost to meet this projection. Wemaintain our view that sales will begin to pick up from 2010 with annual growth of around 5%.
Meanwhile, government incentives for 'green' cars continue to encourage investment fromcarmakers. Ford Australia has taken a step towards significantly improving the fuel-efficiency of itsvehicles with the opening of its Advanced Centre for Automotive Research and Testing (ACART). Builtin conjunction with the Victorian state government and Melbourne University, the US$20mn centre willfeature what is claimed to be the most powerful wind tunnel in the Asia Pacific region as well as anenvironmental testing lab, an engine dynamometer unit, and multi-fuel emission test cells. Ford will allowthe centre to contribute to its business commercially by opening up the facility to other carmakers andsuppliers, which should help to support the long-term development of the industry as a whole.
Such government support is an important factor in attracting investment to Australia, which ranks secondto China in BMI's Business Environment Ratings for the Asia Pacific autos industry with a score of 65.3out of a possible 100. The developed nature of the country means that it is at a disadvantage due to thenear-saturation of its market, which reduces growth potential. On the other hand, a high GDP increasespurchasing power, while market risks are reduced by low levels of corruption and a strong legalframework. This is reflected in the market's high score for its Risk to Realisation of Returns.
Although those who have invested in local operations still have the advantage in terms of market share,the economic slowdown is creating opportunities for other brands. According to Hyundai spokesperson,Ben Hershman, 'value becomes important' in times of financial uncertainty. This, along with a strongportfolio of new products such as the i30, the iLoad, and the iMax, contributed to company growth of12.3% in April. While staying in second and third place, GM Holden and Ford saw sales drop by 23%and 17%, respectively. Toyota Motor held on to the overall lead with sales of 13,033 units.
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