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Home > Business/Finance > Diversified Services > Shipping & Logistics
Australia Freight Transport Report Q3 2008
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The Australian Competition & Consumer Commission (ACCC) in late April 2008 finally gave the greenlight for Newcastle Port and Donaldson Coal to operate a quota or ‘capacity balancing’ system atNewcastle Port, Australia and the world’s largest thermal coal export terminal. The ACCC said itremained concerned that the system might be anti-competitive, and therefore extended its authorizationonly until the end of 2008. Mining companies and port operators have argued that some form of slotallocation at the port is necessary to reduce the large queue of ships waiting to load. But ACCC chairmanGraeme Samuel said he remained concerned that the system might reduce incentives to invest inexpanding capacity. ‘The ACCC considers that this may ultimately result in several billion dollars of lostexport revenue’ he warned. For that reason authorization had been extended only to the end of December2008, placing the onus on the private sector operators to come up with a better long-term solution. BMI’sAustralia Freight Transport Q308 report predicts that shipping freight carriage will rise by an annualaverage of 5% per annum in 2008-2012.
According to our latest estimates, transport and communications GDP rose by 4.8% in 2007, ahead ofoverall GDP. For the 2008-2012 forecast period, we expect the transport and communications sector tocontinue outpacing the economy as a whole. It will achieve average annual growth of 3.8%, versus 3.6%for overall GDP. The total value of transport and communications GDP will rise to US$69.7bn in nominalterms by 2012, representing 5.7% of Australia’s GDP.
In advanced economies, freight transport tends to grow at roughly the same pace as the economy as awhole. In Australia, however, we believe there is continuing upside potential in the freight sector,reflecting the size of the country’s infrastructure development opportunities and the strong potential forthe continuing growth of mineral exports. Airfreight, as a result of renewed competition, will see 7.1%average annual growth in freight carried. We now expect rail freight to grow by 3.6% per annum, on theback of strong mining exports and infrastructure development. Road haulage freight carried will achieveaverage annual growth of 4.3%. We see this number reflecting very strong demand, which will, however,be constrained by capacity limits. Although new investment in road will be forthcoming, it will not do sofast enough to alter the picture radically before 2012.
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