In BMI’s Q309 Business Environment Ratings (BER) for the 14 major markets of Central and EasternEurope (CEE), Bulgaria slipped from the previously occupied 10th to the last place of the matrix, mostlydue to its rapidly deteriorating economic outlook. Despite a considerable upward revision by theBulgarian National Statistical Institute to Q308 GDP, we hold to our view that economic growth willslow markedly in 2009. Indeed, with the eurozone heading deeper into recession, credit remaining tightand the private sector under pressure to clean up its balance sheet, we see growth collapsing to 1.1% froma projected 6.4% in 2008. To this end, in the 2009-2013 period, we are forecasting a 14.4% reduction (inlocal currency terms) in Bulgaria’s food expenditure. Therefore, the country is likely to remain at or nearthe very bottom of the BER matrix for the next few quarters, especially given its modest population size.
Nevertheless, the above situation will provide a growth opportunity for retail operators offering discountand private-label products. In fact, a number of such players have recently announced expansion intoBulgaria’s mass grocery retail (MGR) sector. In the month of March 2009, French MGR giant Carrefouropened its first hypermarket in Burgas, Serbian Delta opened its first outlet in Plovdiv, while GermanLidl secured land in Bulgaria’s northern town of Pleven. All three plan further store openings in thecountry, although the rate of this expansion may have to be moderated in the face of a deterioratingeconomic environment. In the meantime, the rising prominence of cheaper food and drinks offerings willcontinue to support our negative food consumption forecasts.
Nevertheless, there have been some positive developments in the country’s food and beverages market.For example, one of the leading Bulgarian fruit and vegetables processors, Nash Dom Bulgaria AD,posted a strong increase in both its 2008 turnover and profit, although much of the performance wasboosted by the recent sale of its subsidiaries. Still, around the same time, Bulgarian meat processorDelicates 2 Ltd inaugurated its second manufacturing facility, with plans to increase its export potential.
Foreign players are also expanding in Bulgaria, with Fornetti - the leading bakery firm in Hungary - dueto open its local franchise in Q309, in order to eliminate its reliance on imports of baked goods for theBulgarian market.
Similarly, UK-based spirits heavyweight Diageo prolonged its eight-year partnership with Bulgaria-baseddistribution company Avendi, with the signing of a five-year contract. The renewal comes despite a sharpplunge in the country’s economic outlook, indicating some companies’ belief in market potential. Avendiis a highly valued partner of Diageo’s, having been honoured as Diageo’s CEE partner of the year in2006. Indeed, Diageo’s products have climbed to among the top selling spirits labels in Bulgaria, with itsJohnny Walker brand being particularly popular, despite strong competition from imported beers, whichhave risen in popularity following the EU accession.
|
0 items
