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Home > Communications > Telecommunications > General Telecom
Caribbean Telecommunications Report Q4 2009
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Cuba remains a market to watch owing to the possible changes that a renewed relationship with the UScould bring. With considerable potential and low penetration rates it is a market that would benefit fromcompetition and closer links to other countries. Already mobile growth looks set to take off afterrestrictions were lifted on mobile ownership and the number of net additions each quarter continues toincrease, indicating a voracious appetite for mobile services in the market. Further growth can beexpected across the market. Even with upgrades to our forecasts the Cuban market has the ability to groweven faster but BMI believes that affordability remains a key issue for many Cubans, holding the marketback.
The Caribbean’s only other monopoly market, Bahamas, looks set to finally see privatisation take placeby the end of 2009 if government plans are to go ahead. Earlier failed attempts to sell 51% of theBahamas Telecommunications Company (BTC) may have put off some potential investors and thealready high penetration rate will make the market a challenge for any new entrants but the relativelywealthy population makes this an attractive prospect. Competition for the mobile market is not set to enteruntil two years after privatisation takes place and the prospects for growth for any new entrant are low butBMI still believes there are opportunities to grow and the market will welcome new competitors.
BMI has revised the forecasts for Trinidad and Tobago considerably following the release of 2008subscriber numbers putting the penetration rate at 138%. This is the highest in the region and BMIexpects further growth to be minimal with a decline beginning in 2012. While there have been cases ofmobile markets continuing to grow, way past 138%, bmobile is already losing subscribers and BMI doesnot believe that the market can sustain much more growth.
With such a range of markets in the Caribbean it is hard to draw any generalisations but the overall trendsfor the region see decline for the majority of fixed-line markets owing to the already high penetrationrates for mobile services. The mobile market is often the most competitive market and this has driven fastgrowth in the past. Future increases will come from offering advanced services such as mobile broadband,maintaining interest in mobile services.
The strongest growth patterns will be seen in broadband services with expectations of strong growth to beseen across the region. Haiti and Cuba will continue to report the lowest levels of broadband subscriptionsas pricing and availability remain key issues.
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