One of the biggest developments in the Central Asian telecoms markets in past few months was theannouncement that VimpelCom’s Uzbek mobile unit had been awarded a UMTS licence. The licencewas awarded to VimpelCom’s subsidiary Unitel in November 2007 and, although the operator has not yetindicated when it intends to launch its 3G service, the development will allow it to compete more directlyagainst market rival MTS, which was awarded a UMTS licence in 2006.
BMI continues to be excited about the future development of Uzbekistan’s mobile market. Not only is it alarge country with over 27mn people, but penetration is still relatively low, at just 19% at the end of 2007.Furthermore, growth is expected to be solid over the next few years, and we are predicting thatpenetration will rise to over 61% by the end of 2012. In addition to MTS and VimpelCom, the Uzbeksector has another major regional player in the form of TeliaSonera. TeliaSonera entered the Uzbekmobile market in July 2007, when it purchased third-ranked Coscom from MCT Corporation of the US.TeliaSonera and VimpelCom also compete head-to-head in Tajikistan, following TeliaSonera’sacquisition of Tajikistan’s second largest mobile operator, Indigo-Somoncom in September 2007.
By the end of 2007, mobile penetration in Kazakhstan had surpassed 71%. BMI expects to see continuedsolid growth over the next five years and, by the end of our revised forecast period in 2012, penetration isexpected to be over 121%. Kazakhstan now has four mobile operators, following the launch ofNeoTelecom by fixed-line incumbent Kazakhtelecom in February 2007. In November 2007, reportswere circulating which suggested that Kazakhtelecom was considering the sale of a stake in one of thethree mobile operators in which it has an interest. This news revived speculation that Russia’s MTS mightmake a bid for the operator's 51% stake in NeoTelecom; however, it is also thought that TeliaSonerawould welcome the opportunity to increase their stake in market leader K-Cell, should the opportunityarise. MTS has reportedly been pressing to be allowed to buy or invest in NeoTelecom since February2007, although Kazakhtelecom has continually said that the business is not up for saleAfter Kazakhstan, the Central Asian market with the highest mobile penetration rate is Kyrgyzstan; at theend of 2007, Kyrgyzstan had a penetration rate which was in excess of 33%. One of the chief factorsbehind the rapid growth of cellular telephony in Kyrgyzstan appears to be the competition which resultedfrom MegaCom’s launch of GSM services in early 2006. Competition between MegaCom and marketleader Bitel has helped to propel a dramatic rise in subscribers in 2006 and 2007.
Finally, in this latest update on the Central Asian telecoms markets, we have introduced a new set ofbusiness environment rankings, as well as a new methodology for calculating individual country ratings.Turkmenistan now in first place, with this score reflecting the enormous potential which exists inTurkmenistan for future growth; at the end of 2007, the country’s mobile penetration stood at just 5.3%.
|
0 items
