Chile’s state-owned railway company Empresa de Los Ferrocarriles del Estado (EFE) posted a net loss
of CLP38.325bn (US$71.3mn) in 2006, compared to a net loss of CLP25.4bn (US$47.3mn) in 2005, the
company reported in March. The main reason for the increased loss was a lower level of sales, linked to
infrastructure problems near Chillan. Cargo transported by EFE fell by 3.1% to 9.8mn tonnes. While the
state company’s problems are casting something of a shadow over the rail freight sector, there are other
reasons for optimism. Ferrocarriles Antofagasta Bolivia (FCAB), the privately-owned rail freight
company which forms part of the Antofagasta mining group in northern Chile, reported increased
volumes last year. Some of the world's leading infrastructure concession groups have acquired the tender
rules and regulations for the bilateral rail project for Chile and Argentina known as the Ferrocarril
Trasandino Central, designed to link Los Andes, Chile, and Mendoza, Argentina. Renewing this rail link
is seen as vital, since much of the US$5bn in yearly trade between the two countries is transported by
truck through a mountain pass that snowstorms shut down for more than a month every winter. The
railway will run for 225km and will cost almost US$300mn. Companies showing interest thus far include
OHL and Dragados of Spain, Japan's Marubeni, Germany's MAN Ferrostaal, and Chilean groups
Iacafal and Besalco. The tender was opened at a ceremony attended by Argentina's President Nestor
Kirchner and his Chilean counterpart Michelle Bachelet to revive the rail link, which was closed in 1984
after being used for 74 years. Our latest Chile Freight Transport Report, BMI concludes that the
country’s rail freight traffic will grow at an annual average of 4.0% in the 2007-2011 forecast period (the
new trans-Andean rail link will not be operational until around 2010).
Various factors support this prediction. In the past, rail has been one of the slowest-growing freight
transport modes in the country. Growth will nevertheless be underpinned by GDP expansion of 4.2% over
the next five years, and by Chile’s strong mining export performance. It will, however, lag a little behind
the average annual growth in freight turnover across all modes, measured in mn tonnes-km (mntkm),
which will reach 4.7% in 2007-2011. For the five-year forecast period and across the freight sector as a
whole, BMI’s view is that good export-oriented growth, coupled with a favourable business environment
and ‘catch-up’ infrastructure investments, all point to a good performance. Airfreight will lead (growth of
6.1% per annum), followed by road (5.4%) and maritime freight (4.7%), reflecting the strength of Chile’s
international trade, particularly with Pacific Rim countries. Chile is at the top end of our Latin American
freight transport business environment matrix. It scores particularly well on long-term political and
economic risk and on the regulatory and competitive environment. Freight and transport infrastructure
growth are comparable to those of counties in the peer group such as Brazil and Argentina. Chile is again
out in front on the transport intensity index, a measure of the dynamism of its foreign trade.
According to our latest estimates, the total value of transport and communications GDP will rise to
US$15.4bn in nominal terms by 2011, representing 7.9% of Chile’s GDP. The transport and
communications sector employed an estimated 506,800 people, or 8.6% of the labour force in 2006. We
see this rising to 546,000, and 8.7% of the total by 2011.
|
0 items
