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Home > Business/Finance > Diversified Services > Shipping & Logistics
Chile Freight Transport Report Q4 2008
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In June Chile said it was exploring new ways to grant land-locked Bolivia better access to the PacificOcean. The issue has been a major source of disagreement between the two countries ever since Chileannexed large swathes of land from both Bolivia and Peru after defeating both countries in the 1879-1883War of the Pacific. Although successive Chilean governments have refused to consider ceding territoryback to Bolivia, in June the administration of President Michelle Bachelet said it would allow Bolivia toimport goods on its own authority, without the intervention of Chilean customs, though the formerBolivian port of Iquique. Alejandro Foxley, Chile’s Foreign Minister, said there were ‘other measures toimprove Bolivia’s access to the sea that have been discussed in very general terms.’ While they wouldrequire technical studies, he added, that ‘we are not going to discuss them publicly for obvious reasons.’Because of the dispute the two countries have not had full diplomatic relations for the last three decades,but nevertheless appear to have been edging closer to a potential deal. A number of analysts note thateach has something the other one wants: Chile can offer Bolivia access to the Pacific, while Bolivia canoffer energy-poor Chile abundant natural gas. Our latest Chile Freight Transport Report, BMI notes thatthe country’s maritime freight traffic will grow at an annual average of 5.2% in the 2008-2012 forecastperiod.
Various factors support this prediction. Chile remains one of the most open economies in the Americas,and relies on shipping for much of its trade. Ocean trade with Pacific Rim countries will remain dynamic.Growth will be underpinned by GDP expansion of 4.3% over the next five years, and by Chile’s strongmining export performance. It will, however, lag marginally behind the average annual growth in freightturnover across all modes, measured in mn tonnes-km (mntkm), which will reach 5.4% in 2008-2012. Forthe five-year forecast period and across the freight sector as a whole, BMI’s view is that good exportorientedgrowth, coupled with a favourable business environment and ‘catch-up’ infrastructureinvestments, all point to a good performance. Airfreight will lead (growth of 7.1% per annum), followedby road (5.7%). Chile is at the top end of our Latin American freight transport business environmentrating with a composite score of 72.1. It scores particularly well on long-term political and economic riskand on the regulatory and competitive environment. Freight and transport infrastructure growth arecomparable to those of counties in the peer group such as Brazil and Argentina.
According to our latest estimates, the total value of transport and communications GDP will rise toUS$22.8bn in nominal terms by 2012, representing 8.2% of Chile’s GDP. The transport andcommunications sector employed an estimated 514,500 people, or 8.6% of the labour force in 2006. Wesee this rising to 553,200, and 8.7% of the total by 2012.
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