The newly published Chile Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 5.45% ofLatin American regional power generation by 2013. BMI’s Latin America power generation estimate for2008 is 1,130 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 2.5% over the previous year. We areforecasting growth in regional generation to 1,320TWh by 2013, representing a rise of 16.9%.
Latin American thermal power generation in 2008 is estimated by BMI at 453TWh, accounting for 40.0%of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2013 is 523TWh, implying 15.5% growth,trimming the market share of thermal generation to 39.6% - in spite of environmental concerns thatshould be promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear power. Chile’s thermal generation in 2008was around 34.3TWh, or 7.58% of the regional total. By 2013, the country is expected to account for6.98% of thermal generation.
For Chile, in 2008 oil was the dominant fuel, accounting for 60.5% of primary energy demand (PED),followed by hydro at 19.5%, gas at 8.4% and coal at 11.6%. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach726mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2013, representing 14.5% growth. Chile’s 2008 market share of4.38% is set to rise to 5.02% by 2013.
Chile is now ranked second, having this quarter overtaken Colombia, in BMI’s updated power sectorBusiness Environment Ratings, thanks to its power consumption growth prospects, privatisation progress,competitive landscape and regulatory framework. Country risk factors are generally supportive, but thesingle-point gap between the respective scores of Chile and Argentina means that the latter couldchallenge for second place over the longer term.
BMI is now forecasting Chilean average annual real GDP growth of 2.48% between 2009 and 2013, witha decline of 0.9% forecast for 2009. The population is expected to expand from 16.9mn to 17.9mn overthe period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to increase by 38% and1%, respectively. The country’s power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 46.2TWhin 2008 to 49.4TWh by the end of the forecast period. This results in a theoretical supply surplus,assuming average annual growth in electricity generation of 3.1%.
Between 2008 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Chilean electricity generation of 39.7%, whichis mid-range for the Latin America region. This equates to 17.6% in the 2013-2018 period, down from18.8% in 2008-2013. PED growth is set to fall from 31.1% in 2008-2013 to 14.3%, representing 49.8%for the entire forecast period. An increase of 52.5% in hydro-power use during 2008-2018 is one keyelement of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 30.0% between 2008 and2018. More details of the longer-term BMI power forecasts can be found later in this report.
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