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Home > Business/Finance > Diversified Services > Shipping & Logistics
China Freight Transport Report Q1 2008
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China’s economy continues to power ahead, driving trade and demand for freight transport. Our latest
estimates put GDP growth at 11.5% this year, easing a fraction to 10.4% in 2008. China’s foreign trade
will continue booming: up by 23.9% in 2007 and 21.5% in 2008. This double-digit trade growth
continues to create massive demands on the country’s shipping, ports and infrastructure capacity.
BMI’s China Freight Transport Report concludes that maritime and inland-waterway freight traffic
will be a fast-growing transport mode in 2007-2012, with an average annual expansion rate of 14.9%.
The driver for shipping growth is an economy that will grow by an average of 9.6% each year until
2012, as the country exports, manufactures and imports increasing volumes of key commodities such as
oil, coal, gas and grains. Given this state of affairs, prospects for shipping and the wider freight
transport industry are very encouraging over the forecast period. Our forecast is that freight carried
across all modes in 2007-2012 will expand at an annual average of 13.9%, expressed in billion tonnekm
(bntkm). As our figures indicate, the freight sector will continue to grow at a significantly faster rate
than the economy as a whole, in line with intensifying demand for transport at this stage in the
development of the Chinese economy.
Underpinning the optimistic outlook is a supportive operating environment. BMI has given China’s
freight-industry business environment a rating of 56 (out of a theoretical maximum of 70), which places
it right up at the top of the Asia Pacific region. Extremely high scores for freight growth and transport
intensity (a measure of foreign trade dynamism) more than offset a weaker showing for political risk
and the regulatory framework. By transport modes, growth will be led by oil and gas pipelines (at an
average rate of 17.0% per annum), air freight (16.5%), shipping and inland waterways (14.9%), road
haulage (14.4%) and rail freight (11.1%).
For the 2007-2012 forecast period we expect the transport and communications sector to continue
outpacing the economy as a whole. It will achieve average annual growth of 10.7%, versus 9.6% for
overall GDP. The total value of transport and communications GDP will rise to US$336bn in nominal
terms by 2012, representing 6.1% of China’s GDP. The transport and communications sector employed
21.7mn people, or 2.8% of the labour force, in 2006. We see those figures rising to 23.2mn and 2.9% by
2012.
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