Croatia Telecommunications Report Q2 2008: Industry Research Report

Croatia Telecommunications Report Q2 2008

Published Date: April 2008

Published By: Business Monitor International

Page Count: 50

Order Code: R302-2785

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Croatia has a telecoms industry similar to many other developing markets in Central & Eastern Europe.

Liberalisation has intensified competition in the fixed line telephony market with a number of alternativeoperators and cable TV operators challenging the incumbent in the fixed line telephony, broadband andIPTV space. The country’s mobile market is becoming crowded with official penetration in excess of100% (although the number of inactive users means that actual penetration is probably closer to 90%) andmultiple SIM-ownership becoming more common. Also, like other markets, such as Romania andBulgaria, a third mobile operator - in the shape of Tele2 in Croatia - is making huge strides in stealingmarket share away from its larger and more established rivals. Invariably, this tends to lead to an erosionin tariffs and a general fall in ARPU rates. A common trait also for many developing markets in the CEEregion is the relatively slow introduction of 3G mobile telephony. Both the market leader T-Mobile andsecond-ranked Vipnet have launched next-generation networks, but as yet take-up has been slow.

With an approximate 85% share of the fixed line market and a 90% market share of Croatia’s growingbroadband market, T-Hrvatski Telekom still dominates Croatia’s telecoms market. In addition to this, itsmobile subsidiary T-Mobile is the market leader with 47% of the country’s subscribers. BMI thinks thatby the end of 2008, Croatia’s alternative telcos could between them control a 20% share of Croatia’sfixed line market, lead by Optima Telekom following its successful IPO in December 2007, from which itmanaged to raise HRK140mn, allowing the alternative operator to continue deployment of advancedADSL, IP and WiMAX-based broadband networks across Croatia. It is also a good sign for the market asa whole that the government has announced 15 new operators are on a waiting list to receive a fixed linetelephony operating licence. Not only does this illustrate the growth in competition of Croatia’s telecomsmarket, but will have an impact on fixed telephony tariffs.

Despite reaching saturation levels, Croatia’s mobile market shows few signs of entering a period ofslowdown. The latest data available at the time of writing reveals that the number of mobile subscribersreached 4.8mn in September 2007, growing by 4% q-o-q, at a faster rate than the previous two quarters(3.4% and 2.4%). We estimate approximately 4.9mn subscribers at the end of 2007, which would mean12.5% growth over the year. However, there is likely to be a period of levelling out with the next fewyears seeing only smaller rates of incremental growth (an annual average growth rate of 3.7% over thenext five years until 2012). What growth there still is in the market will be sustained by a reduction intariffs, a growing number of users of advanced mobile services and the further intensification ofcompetition with Tele2 (and possibly a group of MVNOs in the future) stealing market share away fromits rivals.

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