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Home > Communications > Telecommunications > General Telecom
Germany Telecommunications Report Q2 2008
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During 2007, the number of German mobile subscribers grew by 13.4% to reach 97.151mn. In the final
quarter of the year, mobile subscriber growth amounted to 4.1%, making Q407 one of the most significant
growth quarters to date; it is notable that the 4.1% increase witnessed in Q407 was stronger than the 3.1%
rise in Q406. With a mobile penetration rate which is now approximately 117.5%, Germany continues to
have one of the highest mobile penetration rates in Western Europe. Furthermore, as mentioned in
previous updates on Germany’s mobile market, there is no real evidence from German subscriber figures
of any significant slowdown in growth. We believe that one of the most likely reasons for the increased
subscriber growth in 2007 includes the impact on Germany’s mobile sector of an increasing number of
mobile virtual network operators (MVNOs). However, it is also notable that major operators such as TMobile
continue to place a strong emphasis on prepaid growth. Both of these developments have
contributed towards increased multiple SIM ownership and an increasing number of inactive prepaid
mobile users.
Despite the strong customer growth reported in 2007, we continue to anticipate a slowdown in subscriber
growth in the near future, and we believe that this slowdown will be accompanied by market saturation
and consolidation in the MVNO market. Nevertheless, we have upwardly revised our subscriber growth
figures in light of the newly published data. We now predict that 2008 will see an 8.9% increase in
subscriber numbers and that, from 2009 onwards, the slowdown in customer growth will be more gradual.
We predict that the number of German mobile subscribers will rise to almost 132mn by the end of 2012,
an increase which would raise penetration to 159%. Although this is quite a bit higher than we previously
suggested, it is still in line with the actual and projected mobile subscriber growth rates of many other
European countries.
Meanwhile, Germany’s broadband subscriber base increased by an impressive 33.7% during 2007, taking
total subscriber numbers to 19.7mn (equivalent to 23.8% of the population). By the end of 2007, the
incumbent Deutsche Telekom accounted for nearly 64% of all German broadband connections,
significantly down from its end-2006 market share of nearly 70% and its end-2005 market share of almost
76%. At the end of 2007, 96% of all broadband internet connections were based on DSL technology,
while cable was thought to account for 3.5% of total connections.
Germany remains in third place in our new set of Business Environment Rankings table for Western
Europe. Despite receiving relatively strong scores for country risk, and for the state of its telecoms
market, its overall score remains compromised by its inadequate regulatory independence.
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