In the first six months of 2007, the number of Greek mobile subscribers grew by 8.7% to reach 15.305mn.Despite the already very high penetration rate, which is now over 137%, we envisage 2007 being anotherstrong growth year for the Greek sector. Although we originally predicted a growth rate of 7.45% for2007 as a whole, the higher than anticipated growth rates for Q107 and Q207 resulted in us makingsignificant revisions to our forecast. Our latest set of forecast figures envisage a total of 15.963mn mobilesubscribers by the end of 2007. This reflects a 2007 growth rate of 13.4%, which is similar to thatexperienced in 2006. By the end of 2007, Greek mobile penetration was expected to reach 143%.Nevertheless, the reported operator figures continue to contain a significant number of inactivesubscribers. Looking ahead, we anticipate that the operators may begin discounting inactive accountsfrom their figures, and this could lead to significant adjustments to our forecast data. In the meantime,prepaid customers continue to grow at a faster pace than postpaid subscribers, and this market featurecontinues to depress ARPU levels.
One of the biggest ongoing sagas in Greece’s telecoms market concerns the future ownership of nationalincumbent operator OTE. Following the successful placement, in June 2007, of a 10.7% stake in nationalOTE, Greece’s Finance Ministry announced in October 2007 that it would not ‘actively seek’ the furtherprivatisation of the former monopoly telco. The government’s attempts in early 2006 to attract a majorEuropean telecoms company to invest in OTE failed. However, at the end of September 2007, it wasreported that Greek company Marfin Investment Group (MIG) was considering making a bid to acquirea controlling stake in OTE. MIG was reportedly considering the launch of a bid in the region of EUR2bn(US$2.8bn) for a 20% stake in OTE, which would include some management influence. It was alsoreported that MIG might participate in the possible placement of part of the government’s 28% OTEstake. News reports have also mooted the possibility that MIG could seek a strategic partnership with aforeign telecoms operator, in order to gain overall control of the Greek incumbent.
Meanwhile, at the beginning of August 2007, it was reported that Greek electricity utility Public PowerCorp (PPC) had accepted a EUR175mn (US$240mn) offer from telecoms holding company WeatherInvestments, for the acquisition of its 50%-minus-one-share stake in Greek alternative telco Tellas. Theconclusion of deal ensures that Weather Investments, which is itself owned by Egyptian tycoon NaguibSawiris, gains 100% ownership of Tellas. It also paves the way for Weather to offer bundled fixed-lineand internet services, along with offerings from its recently acquired Greek mobile operator Wind Hellas(formerly TIM Hellas). Weather Investments previously paid US$3.4bn to acquire TIM Hellas and itssubsidiary Q-Telecom from private equity firms Apax Partners and Texas Pacific in February 2007.
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