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Home > Business/Finance > Diversified Services > Shipping & Logistics
Hungary Freight Transport Report Q3 2008
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In June Lajos Szucs, head of department at the ministry of transport was quoted by MTI news agency saying that the government would spend HUF2,000bn (US$12.4bn) on transport development in the next few years, an amount that would be partly covered from European Union resources. This would allow infrastructure investment spending to be maintained at around 2% of annual GDP. Szucs said that Romania and Bulgaria’s accession to the EU had led to a revitalisation of transport in eastern Hungary.
The country had placed a special emphasis on road building over the preceding decade, but in the long term it would be necessary to develop more environmentally friendly methods of transport. He added that Hungary was also pursuing a programme of railway modernisation, focusing initially on pan-European Corridors IV and V. In our newly released Hungary Freight Transport Report, BMI concludes that overall Hungarian freight traffic will grow by an average of 4.2% per annum in 2008-2012.
Our forecast is based on a number of factors. Despite Hungary’s current fiscal difficulties, which will lead to low economic growth in 2008, we still see GDP rising by an annual average of 3.5% in 2008-2012. As the central road-building policy is implemented, albeit at a reduced pace because of the fiscal crunch, and vehicle ownership continues to spread, road freight will see strong growth. We expect average annual growth for 2008-2012 to reach 4.7%. Supported by restructuring and a gradual rise in investment rail freight will grow by an annual average of 3%. Boosted by the boom in budget airlines, but with restructuring in prospect as the privatisation of national flag carrier Malév has finally been concluded, airfreight will experience an average annual increase of 5.4% during 2008-2012. Inland waterways will grow at the slowest average annual rate of 1.8%. Pipeline throughput will expand by an average of 4.4%..
Hungary scores a freight rating of 53.8 (out of a theoretical maximum of 100). An area where it could score better is the somewhat restricted competitive environment, as state-owned companies (some of which are loss-making) still dominate the transport sector. The total value of Hungarian transport and communications GDP will rise to US$17.5bn in nominal terms by 2012, representing 8.7% of Hungary’s GDP. The transport and communications sector employed 301,100 people, or 7.7% of the labour force, in 2007. We see the number of people employed in the sector falling marginally to 297,200 by 2012, although it will remain constant in relative terms at 7.7% of the total labour force.
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