Our latest Iran telecoms report confirms the positive view that we have long held on the mobile market.Based on data up to the end of September 2007, we believe that the market is well on track to meet ouryear-end target of 28mn subscribers. This would take penetration to 40%, double the 2006 figure.Encouragingly, state-owned MCI’s monopoly on the wireless sector is loosening, as MTN unit Irancellsteadily increases its market share. Competition between the two operators, and to a lesser extent Taliya,should help drive network coverage growth over the next few years, increasing the availability of servicesin rural and more remote areas. We are confident that Iran can emulate the penetration rates seenelsewhere in the Middle East and exceed the 100% mark by the end of our extended forecast period in2012. We are less bullish on the 3G market; licences have yet to be awarded and Irancell has made nocomment on the popularity of its GPRS data services to date. With licences unlikely to be sold until mid-2008 at the earliest, take-up is likely to remain extremely limited throughout the duration of our forecastperiod.
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