Kuwait’s pharmaceutical market is small in regional terms. Combined sales of over-the-counter (OTC)and prescription drugs reached a total of US$377mn in 2008, and we expect this to reach US$462mn by2013 - representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.17% in US dollar terms.Pharmaceutical spending will account for 0.27% of GDP, with per capita expenditure at US$136 by theend of the forecast period. We expect growth to be driven by the strong bias toward patented drugs, whichstill dominate the market.
With little or no enforced incentives for prescribers or dispensers to substitute for generics wherepossible, this looks likely to continue in the medium term. However, we note that import policies in theregion have all been affected by unfavourable currency fluctuations against the euro when procuring EUmedicines. We note that the Kuwaiti government is not actively encouraging a domestic manufacturingindustry, which restricts choices on imports and in addition means the country is heavily reliant on thosemedicines.
BMI’s Burden of Disease Database (BoDD) reveals that the number of disability-adjusted life years(DALYs) lost to communicable diseases in Kuwait will decrease from 29,836 in 2008 to 24,888 by 2030.Meanwhile, the DALYs lost to non-communicable disease will rise from 190,740 in 2008 to 258,306 by2030. The main driver for this growth is attributed to the rise in obesity and obesity-related disordersincluding hypertension, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease.
We note that chronic conditions pose a significant burden on healthcare services and directly lead to a risein prescription medication spending. This makes the patented drug market in these therapeutic areasparticularly attractive to multinational drugmakers looking for new export destinations in the Middle East.Generic drugs are slowly gaining market share, though government policy on substitution needs to bedrafted and implemented to encourage further growth in this sector.
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