BMI calculates the Latvian pharmaceutical market to have been worth LVL256mn (US$512mn) in 2008,and by 2013, drug expenditure is expected to reach a value of LVL352mn. In US dollar terms, however,as a result of the weakening lat, drug market spending will fall to US$428mn in 2009, before rising againto US$482mn in 2013 (a figure below the 2008 market value).
In BMI’s Business Environment Ranking matrix for Q309, Latvia is found in a lowly 16th position out ofthe 20 markets surveyed in the Emerging Europe region, sandwiched between Lithuania and Moldova. Inrelation to the previous quarter, Latvia has moved up one place. The country’s overall pharmaceuticalrating is below average, due to its small and falling population numbers that limit its overall size, and aneconomy that is highly exposed to external risk.
The volume of drugs sold in Latvian pharmacies decreased by 6-8% in April 2009, compared with March.A slowdown in the prescription drug market and the overall largely payer-driven pharmaceutical marketcould therefore be partially attributable to the economic downturn and the decline in disposable income.BMI notes that Latvia’s reimbursement system covers a relatively limited range of medicines, even byCEE standards, and remains hindered by a lack of government financing. BMI’s drug expenditureforecasts highlight a slowdown in the country’s pharmaceutical market growth in 2009 to 5.29% -compared to 10.25% in 2008 and a staggering 18.77% in 2007.
From March 2009, the cost for a general practitioner has increased to LVL1 (US$1.90) from LVL0.5(US$0.90), for healthcare specialists it has increased to LVL5 (US$9.50) from LVL2 (US$3.80) and forhospital fees to LVL5-12 (US$9.50-22.70). The increase in the healthcare fees is in line with BMI’s viewthat Latvia is committed to reforming its hospital sector in a bid to contain costs. According to the BalticCourse, people in the country go to hospitals twice as frequently and stay in hospitals twice as long. Thegovernment is emphasising the development of preventive medicine and homecare, and the decision toincrease fees may impact growing healthcare expenditure in Latvia.
Latvia’s pharmaceutical exports reached a value of US$256mn in 2008 and by 2013, we expect this torise to US$272mn, equating to a 1.18% compound annual growth rate (CAGR). Pharmaceutical importswere valued at US$470mn in 2008 and it is calculated that they will reach a value of US$497mn by 2013,equating to a CAGR of 1.12%. BMI believes that a greater focus on exports by Latvia’s smallerindigenous drugmakers could significantly raise the country’s export profile and provide substantialturnover gains for the domestic industry. Excluding the top two manufacturers - for which exportsaccount for 92.5% of turnover - the smaller drugmakers’ exports account for only 32.6% of totalturnover.
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