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Home > Healthcare > Pharmaceutical > General Pharmaceutical
Lithuania Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q4 2009
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BMI calculates that Lithuania’s pharmaceutical market reached a value of LTL1.70bn (US$0.70bn) in2008. By 2013, we expect the value of the prescription and over-the-counter (OTC) markets to reach avalue of LTL2.13bn, equating to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.61% over the forecastperiod. However, as a result of the weakening Lithuanian currency, drug market expenditure in US dollarterms will decline in 2009, to reach a value of US$0.526bn, before rising to US$0.528bn in 2010 andUS$0.61bn by 2013, equating to a negative CAGR of -2.75%. We also add that the growth in the drugmarket is modest, in line with other Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) countries.
In BMI’s Business Environment Ratings matrix for Q409, Lithuania is found in 16th position out of the20 markets surveyed in the CEE region, between Moldova and Latvia. In relation to the previous quarter,Lithuania has moved down one place. The country’s overall pharmaceutical rating is below average, dueto small and falling population numbers that limit its overall size and an economy that is highly exposedto external risk. Globally, Lithuania is 55th of the 71 markets within BMI’s pharmaceuticals andhealthcare market universe, ahead of Morocco and Latvia and behind Indonesia and Israel.
In company news, in August 2009 it was announced that Sicor Biotech’s turnover increased by 49%year-on-year (y-o-y) to LTL52.67mn (US$21.97mn) in H109. The results were attributed to sales of theoncology drug TevaGrastim, which is now registered for use in the EU. The company is planning toincrease its exports dramatically. BMI notes that Lithuania’s biotechnology sector has benefited fromstrong government support. A knowledge-based economy is a priority, and this has translated tosignificant improvements in GDP in recent years.
The Lithuanian pharmaceutical market has experienced considerable volatility in recent years, due to achanging regulatory environment and a changing reimbursement regime. Most recently, economicpressures, including falling consumer confidence, will result in lower market values over the comingmonths. Following the release of Q2 GDP data, which showed the economy contracting by 20.2% y-o-y,BMI’s Country Risk team has revised down the forecast for Lithuanian growth in 2009, and now projectreal GDP to fall by 15.9% - making the Lithuanian economy one of the worst performing in the worldthis year. With the authorities attempting to correct the economy’s external asymmetries through arelatively unprecedented internal devaluation, we caution that output, wages and prices are all set tocontract steeply. The consequences of the economic downturn have yet to be fully understood and despitethe demand for healthcare being relatively independent of the trends in the troubled wider economy, BMInotes that market figures for subsequent years may be even lower than forecast.
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