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Home > Communications > Telecommunications > General Telecom
North Africa Telecommunications Report Q2 2008
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As we move on through 2008, the broad themes and issues affecting the North African telecoms sectorremain in play.
In Algeria, despite much talk throughout 2007, the privatisation of Algerie Telecom hasstill to take place, although the Ministry of Posts and Communications has assured potential investors thatthe sale will get underway during 2008. Despite the delays, we expect that foreign investor interest willremain strong; following on from France Telecom and Portugal Telecom, who both declared an interestin 2007, the UAE’s Etisalat is the latest candidate to make its intentions known. This level of interest isnot surprising. The Algerian fixed-line market remains distinctly under-developed and we see plenty ofpotential for the internet sector as incomes rise and the non-oil sector of the economy develops.
Furthermore, Algerie Telecom owns a mobile subsidiary, Mobilis, which has a reported 10mn subscribersat the end of 2007. Although growth in the mobile market has slowed down considerably, we still seeroom for expansion. Even when penetration rates reach 100%, which we forecast them to do by 2012,there is the possibility of upgrading over 35mn projected subscribers from prepaid services to postpaidcontracts.
In Morocco, we have again highlighted the astounding growth of the fixed-wireless market, led by thecountry’s third licensed operator Wana. In the space of just over six months (services were first launchedin February 2007), the fixed-wireless sector has grown to account for almost half of the total fixed-linemarket at the end of September 2007, according to the latest figures released by the national regulator.Furthermore, fixed-wireless services are making headway in the internet market, leading to a drop in themarket share of incumbent Maroc Telecom’s ADSL offering. We are encouraged by all these trends,demonstrating as they do the level of competition in the Moroccan market and the positive effect thatservice innovation can have on growth levels.
The same cannot really be said of Tunisia, where the fixed-line market remains a monopoly underTunisie Telecom, which has only been partially privatised. The operator also dominates the mobilesector, facing competition only from Wataniya subsidiary Tunisiana. Nevertheless, growth in the mobilemarket was surprisingly strong during the first nine months of 2007 and we have upgraded our forecastsfor the sector. We now foresee penetration of almost 100% by the end of 2012, although this could begiven a boost should the government decide to go ahead with rumoured plans to license a new nationaloperator.
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