The new Pakistan Power Report forecasts Pakistan will account for 1.25% of Asia Pacific regional powergeneration by 2013, with a stable theoretical generation surplus before the country’s substantialtransmission losses are taken into account. BMI’s Asia Pacific power generation assumption for 2008 is7,116 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 3.2% over the previous year. We are forecastingan increase in regional generation to 9,149TWh by 2013, representing a rise of 28.6%.
Thermal power generation in 2008 totalled an estimated 5,590TWh, accounting for 78.6% of the totalelectricity supplied in the Asia Pacific region. Our forecast for 2013 is 7,046TWh, implying 26.0%growth that reduces the market share of thermal generation to 77.0%. This is thanks largely toenvironmental concerns promoting renewable sources, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation.
Pakistan’s thermal generation in 2008 was 64.6TWh, or 1.16% of the regional total. By 2013, the countryis expected to account for 1.06% of thermal generation.
For Pakistan, gas is the dominant fuel, in 2008 accounting for 50.8% of primary energy demand (PED),followed by oil at 29.0%, hydro-electric energy at 9.5% and coal with a 10.0% share. Regional energydemand is forecast to reach 4,862mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2013, representing 25.1% growthfrom the 2008 level. Pakistan’s 2008 market share of 1.71% is set to ease to 1.53% by 2013. Thecountry’s 1.9TWh of nuclear demand in 2008 is forecast to reach 4.5TWh by 2013, with its share of theAsia Pacific nuclear market rising from 0.36% to 0.69% over the period.
Pakistan is now ranked 11th behind Hong Kong in BMI’s enlarged and updated Power BusinessEnvironment rating, thanks to its relatively high level of renewables (mostly hydro) generation andhealthy power consumption/energy demand growth prospects. Several country risk factors offset theindustry strength, but the country is in a good position to keep clear of South Korea below and shouldeventually mount a challenge on HK’s position above it.
BMI forecasts Pakistan real GDP growth averaging 3.04% a year between 2009 and 2013, with the 2009estimate at 2.00%. The population is expected to expand from 160.9mn to 175.8mn, with GDP per capitaincreasing by 18% and electricity consumption per capita remaining unchanged. Power consumption isexpected to increase from an estimated 72.9TWh in 2008 to 79.6TWh by the end of the forecast period,which provides a relatively stable theoretical generation surplus (before transmission losses, etc.),assuming 2.6% annual growth in electricity generation.
Between 2008 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Pakistani electricity generation of 55.9%,which is mid-range for the Asia Pacific region. This equates to 29.7% in the 2013-2018 period, up from20.2% in 2008-2013. PED growth is set to increase from 11.6% in 2008-2013 to 26.4%, representing41.1% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 54% in hydro-power use during 2008-2018 is a keyelement of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 46% between 2008 and2018, with nuclear usage up 426% from a low base. More details of the long-term BMI power forecastscan be found at the end of this report.
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