The new Philippines Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for just 0.75% ofAsia Pacific regional power generation by 2013, with a modest generation surplus that provides atheoretical export capability. BMI’s Asia Pacific power generation assumption for 2008 is 7,116 terawatthours (TWh), representing an increase of 3.2% over the previous year. We are forecasting an increase inregional generation to 9,149TWh by 2013, representing a rise of 28.6%.
Thermal power generation in 2008 totalled an estimated 5,590TWh, accounting for 78.6% of the totalelectricity supplied in the Asia Pacific region. Our forecast for 2013 is 7,046TWh, implying 26.0%growth that reduces the market share of thermal generation to 77.0%. This is thanks largely toenvironmental concerns promoting renewable sources, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. ThePhilippines’ thermal generation in 2008 was 49.6TWh, or 0.89% of the regional total. By 2013, thecountry is expected to account for 0.81% of thermal generation in the region.
For the Philippines, oil is the dominant fuel, in 2008 accounting for 53.8% of primary energy demand(PED), followed by coal at 24.8%, gas at 12.5% and hydro-electric energy at 8.9%. Regional energydemand is forecast to reach 4,862mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2013, representing 25.1% growthfrom the 2008 level. The Philippines’ 2008 market share of 0.64% is set to rise to 0.65% by 2013. Thecountry’s 9.8TWh of hydro demand in 2008 is forecast to reach 11.5TWh by 2013, with its share of theAsia Pacific hydro market falling from 1.10% to 0.85% over the period.
The Philippines is ranked equal seventh with Malaysia in BMI’s enlarged and updated Power BusinessEnvironment rating, thanks to its relatively high level of renewables usage and healthy energy demandgrowth prospects. Country risk factors offset some of the industry strength, but the country should be ableto keep Thailand at bay and potentially challenge and overtake Malaysia during the next few quarters.
BMI is forecasting Philippines’ real GDP growth averaging 3.46% a year between 2009 and 2013, withthe 2009 estimate at 1.50%. Population is expected to expand from 89.7mn to 98.4mn over the period,with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to increase by 42% and 7%respectively. The country’s power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 51.8TWh in2008 to 60.5TWh by the end of the forecast period, leaving theoretical surplus generation rising from7.8TWh in 2008 to 8.2TWh in 2013, assuming 2.5% annual growth in electricity generation. Between2008 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in the Philippines’ electricity generation of 45.3%, whichis around the middle of the range for the Asia Pacific region. This equates to 26.0% in the 2013-2018period, up from 15.4% in 2008-2013. PED growth is set to decrease from 27.0% in 2008-2013 to 18.8%,representing 50.8% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 39% in hydro-power use during 2008-2018 is a key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 47% between2008 and 2018. More details of our long-term power forecasts are at the end of this report.
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