Poland still hoped that Russia would drop plans for the Nord Stream gas pipeline, economy ministerWaldemar Pawlak said in January 2008. The Nord Stream project involves circumventing Poland andother transit countries by building an offshore pipeline under the Baltic Sea that would link Russiadirectly to Germany. This pipeline could ultimately supply more than a quarter of European gas demand.Pawlak said however that Russia might be persuaded of the benefits of a land-based alternativeconnecting Russia to Germany via Poland and Belarus, to be known as Yamal-Europe-2. This, he said,would have lower transit costs, be more secure, and have none of the environmental risks that Poland andother Baltic countries say would be incurred by Nord Stream. Russia has however described the Yamal-Europe-2 plan as not economically viable. Gazprom, the Russian state-owned gas company, will have a51% controlling stake in Nord Stream, with German companies BASF and E.ON each having 20% andGasunie of the Netherlands holding a 9% stake. Either way, Poland faces a series of key decisionsaffecting its status as a transit country for oil and gas pumped through pipelines. As a traditional conduitfor Russian oil and gas moving west to European consumers, Nord Stream has to be counted as a definitethreat. To the south, it sees an opportunity: in alliance with Ukraine, it aims to reverse the current flow ofthe Odessa-Brody oil pipeline, opening up a route for non-Russian Caspian oil to be pumped throughPoland up to Gdansk and onwards to Western consumers. Overall, it is a complicated picture, but in ournewly released Poland Freight Transport Report, BMI concludes that oil and gas pipeline throughputwill grow by an average of 4.9% per annum in 2008-2012, a little down on the preceding period. Wethink there will be something of a transition period as Poland tries to diversify its oil and gas suppliesaway from excessive dependence on Russia.
Various factors underpin our forecast. While there is a high degree of volatility in what could be called‘pipeline geopolitics’, we think that it remains in Warsaw’s long-term interest to strike a deal with Russia,on the one hand, while diversifying pragmatically on the other. Poland’s own economy is expected togrow at an average of 4.7% per annum over the next five years, providing a base line of energy demandthat will also contribute to pipeline usage.
Our overall forecast for freight carried in Poland is for continuing moderate recovery based on thecountry’s good economic growth rate. The transport sector still has to play catch-up, however, giveninfrastructure limitations in road and rail. We expect annual average growth in freight carried across allmodes, measured in million tonne km (mntkm), of 4.3% during the forecast period of 2008-2012. We seethe best performing sector being airfreight, which with annual average growth of 9.3%, will benefit fromthe global recovery in the aviation industry, the spread of low-cost airlines and increasing integration withEuropean Union (EU) partners. Plans to privatise Poland’s national carrier, LOT Polish Airlines, mayalso attract new investment. In maritime freight we are forecasting that new investment in Gdansk portwill feed through. Freight traffic carried by ship will grow by an annual average of 7.0%. Road haulagewill grow by 6.4% per annum. Here, we think strong and growing demand for haulage will continue to beheld back by the slow rate of improvement of Poland’s highway network. Finally, rail freight will growby an annual average of 5.5%, as the process s of reform and deregulation gradually begins to take hold.Poland has a composite score of 63 (out of a theoretical maximum of 70) in our freight rating. Thecountry scores well on long-term political and economic risk, and on the regulatory and competitiveenvironment. On the other hand, freight transport growth and infrastructure are areas of relativeweakness. BMI forecasts that the total value of transport and communications GDP will rise toUS$50.7bn in nominal terms by 2012, representing 8.4% of Poland’s GDP. The transport andcommunications sector employed 823,000 people, or 6.0% of the labour force, last year. We see thatfigure staying roughly constant to 2011.
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