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Home > Industrial Markets > Energy > Oil/Gas
Poland Oil and Gas Report Q4 2009
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The latest Poland Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 9.94% ofCentral and Eastern European (CEE) regional oil demand by 2013, while providing less than 0.2% ofsupply. CEE regional oil use of 4.65mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to 5.41mn b/d in 2008. Itshould average 5.15mn b/d in 2009 and then rise to around 5.63mn b/d by 2013. Regional oil productionwas 8.83mn b/d in 2001, and in 2008 averaged 12.91mn b/d. It is set to rise to 14.37mn b/d by 2013. Oilexports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001,the region was exporting an average 4.18mn b/d. This total had risen to 7.51mn b/d in 2008 and isforecast to reach 8.74mn b/d by 2013.
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2008 consumed 592.7bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of663.4bcm targeted for 2013, representing 12.3% growth. Production of 754.6bcm in 2008 should reach906.1cm in 2013, which implies net exports rising from 161.9bcm in 2008 to 242.7bcm by the end of theperiod. Poland’s share of 2008 gas consumption was 2.34%, while it provides an insignificantcontribution to regional supply. By 2013, its share of demand is forecast to be 2.41%.
For 2009 as a whole, we are now assuming an average OPEC basket price of US$55.00 per barrel (bbl), a41.5% decline year-on-year (y-o-y). This represents an upgrade from the US$52 forecast we have stuckwith during the past three quarters. Our OPEC basket assumption delivers likely Brent, WTI, Urals andDubai prices of US$56.30, US$57.50, US$55.60 and US$55.60/bbl respectively. For 2010, we expect tosee a recovery to US$60.00/bbl for the OPEC price (up from our previous forecast of US$58), gainingfurther ground to US$65.00 in 2011 and to US$70.00/bbl in 2012. Our post-2010 forecasts are unchangedand we are continuing to use a long-term price assumption of US$70.00 for 2013-2018.
In 2009, BMI is now assuming a global average gasoline price of US$62.12/bbl, with the fuel havingpeaked in June. The overall y-o-y fall in 2009 gasoline prices is put at 40.0%. The BMI gasoil forecast isfor an average price of US$68.62/bbl, assuming a monthly high of US$92.49/bbl in December. The fullyearoutturn represents a 43.4% fall from the 2008 level. The annual jet price level for 2009 is forecast tobe US$65.17/bbl. This compares with US$124.95/bbl in 2008. The 2009 average naphtha price is put byBMI at US$49.06/bbl, down 43.9% from the previous year’s level.
Polish real GDP is now forecast by BMI to contract by 1.0% in 2009, compared with growth of 4.9% in2008. We are assuming 0.9% growth in 2010, 3.2% in 2011, followed by 4.0% in 2012 and 4.3% in 2013.A small but growing motor vehicle population and renewed economic activity should push oil demand to560,000b/d by 2013, representing annual growth beyond 2009 of around 1.5%. Given a bleak outlook forlocal supply, despite efforts by state explorer Polskie Górnictwo Naftowe i Gazownictwo (PGNiG) andsome international oil company (IOC) partners, the end-period import volume can be expected to reach547,000b/d. We are assuming gas consumption reaching 16.0bcm by 2013, requiring imports of 11.5bcm.
Between 2008 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Polish oil consumption of 17.1%, with importvolumes rising steadily from an estimated 529,000b/d to 593,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecastperiod. Gas consumption is expected to up from 13.5bcm to 18.5bcm by 2018, met by 14.8bcm ofimports. Refining capacity is expected to increase 51.0% between 2008 and 2018. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
Poland still occupies a surprising third place in BMI’s updated Upstream Business Environment rating(albeit well behind regional leaders Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan), in spite of its humble hydrocarbonspotential. Its licensing regime, privatisation progress and healthy country risk environment help offset amodest reserves position and limited output growth prospects. Russia is four points behind in the regionalupstream ranking, so Poland’s position may not be secure over the longer term. The country is at the topof the league table in BMI’s updated Downstream Business Environment rating, ahead of both Ukraineand Russia. It has some high scores that should protect it over the medium term from its rivals. The highlevel of oil demand represents a strong suit, along with healthy gas demand growth prospects and aregion-topping competitive landscape.
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