The new Poland Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 5.96% of Centraland Eastern European (CEE) regional power generation by 2013, and remain a net exporter of electricityto neighbouring states. CEE power generation in 2008 was 2,610 terawatt hours (TWh), representing anincrease of 1.35% over the previous year. We are forecasting a rise in regional generation to 2,884TWhby 2013, representing an increase of 10.51%.
Thermal power generation was around 1,342TWh, accounting for 51.42% of total electricity supplied inthe region, in 2008. Our 2013 forecast is 1,384TWh, or 3.11% growth that reduces thermal generation’smarket share only slightly to 47.99%, despite environmental concerns promoting renewables, hydroelectricityand nuclear generation. Poland’s thermal generation in 2008 was 151.7TWh, 11.30% of theregional total. By 2013 it is expected to account for 12.01% of thermal generation.
For Poland, coal is the dominant fuel, accounting for 61.0% of primary energy demand (PED), followedby oil at 25.5%, gas at 12.8% and hydro with a 0.7% share of PED. Regional energy demand is forecast toreach 1,518mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2013, representing 11.84% growth over the period.
Poland’s 2008 market share of 7.17% is set to ease to 7.04% by 2013. Poland has no operational nucleargenerating capacity and is not expected to build a new plant during the forecast period. It makes nocontribution to regional nuclear energy consumption.
Poland is now equal first with Turkey in BMI’s updated Power Business Environment rating, thanks toits power consumption growth outlook, substantial installed capacity and power generation, competitivelandscape and progress towards full power market deregulation. Country risk factors complement themany industry strengths. Kazakhstan in third place is a long-term threat to Poland’s regional leadership.BMI is now forecasting average annual Polish real GDP growth of 2.70% between 2009 and 2013,although the 2009 forecast is for a decline of 1.00%. Population is expected to slip from 38.0mn to37.9mn over the period, and GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita are forecast toincrease by 6.1% and 9.1%, respectively. The country’s power consumption is expected to increase froman estimated 137.5TWh in 2008 to 149.7TWh by the end of the forecast period, with theoretical exportcapability rising towards 22TWh, assuming 1.3% annual growth in electricity generation.
Between 2008 and 2018, we forecast an increase in Polish electricity generation of 26.33%, which ismiddle of the range for the CEE region. This equates to 13.69% in the 2013-2018 period, up from 11.11%in 2008-2013. PED growth is set to rise from 9.70% in 2008-2013 to 11.49% in the 2013-2018 period,representing 22.31% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 128% in hydro-power use during 2008-2018 is a key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 24% between2008 and 2018. More detailed long-term forecasts can be found towards the end of this report.
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