In this report, BMI forecasts that Qatar will account for 1.97% of Middle East and Africa (MEA) regionalpower generation by 2013, having a growing generation surplus throughout the period. BMI’s MEApower generation estimate for 2008 is 1,200 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 6.1% overthe previous year. We are forecasting an increase in regional generation to 1,561TWh by 2013,representing a rise of 30.14% between 2008 and the end of the period.
MEA thermal power generation in 2008 is estimated by BMI at 1,135TWh, accounting for 94.6% of thetotal electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2013 is 1,453TWh, implying 37.59% growth thatreduces slightly the market share of thermal generation to 93.1% - thanks in part to environmentalconcerns that should be promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Qatar’s thermalgeneration in 2008 was 19.7TWh, or 1.74% of the regional total. By 2013, the country is expected toaccount for 2.12% of thermal generation.
For Qatar, gas was the dominant fuel in 2008, accounting for 79.4% of primary energy demand (PED),followed by oil at 20.6%. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 887.6mn tonnes of oil equivalent(toe) by 2013, representing 20.7% growth over the period since 2008. Qatar’s 2008 market share of3.06% is set to ease to 3.02% by 2013.Qatar is now ranked third behind the UAE in BMI’s updated Power Business Environment rating, thankslargely to its market size, low level of energy import dependency and a particularly low proportion ofrenewables use. The power sector is competitive, with good progress towards privatisation. Theregulatory environment remains relatively unattractive. Qatar has the longer-term potential to challengethe UAE for second place.
BMI forecasts real GDP growth averaging 7.82% a year in 2009-2013, with the 2009 estimate being5.60%. The population is expected to expand from 1.45mn to 1.67mn over the period. GDP per capita isforecast to rise by 19% during 2008-13, and electricity consumption per capita is expected to increase by25%. The country’s power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 18.0TWh in 2008 to25.8TWh by the end of the forecast period, providing a growing generation surplus that should providethe basis for exports to other Gulf states - assuming 9.9% average annual growth in electricity generation.
Between 2008 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Qatari electricity generation of 112.3%, whichis one of the highest in the range for the MEA region. This equates to 35.0% in the 2013-2018 period,down from 56.5% in 2008-2013. PED growth is set to increase from 19.1% in 2008-2013 to 22.0%,representing 45.3% for the entire forecast period. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 112.3%between 2008 and 2018. More details of the longer-term BMI power forecasts can be found towards theend of this report.
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