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Home > Business/Finance > Diversified Services > Shipping & Logistics
Romania Freight Transport Report Q3 2007
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The issue for Romania is not whether it can find the money to develop its motorway infrastructure and
thereby help develop the road haulage industry - thanks to EU membership from the beginning of 2007,
there is no shortage of funds on offer from Brussels. The credits have been rolling in and some EUR5bn
in EU transport investment is expected over the next six-year period. The real issue is whether the
government can show that its spending is well planned and business is given to contractors according to a
transparent bidding process. Some progress has been made on this front, with the highly controversial and
uncompetitive US$2.8bn Bechtel contract now renegotiated, as well as double payments on a border
surveillance contract with aerospace group EADS removed. In our newly-released Romania Freight
Transport Report, BMI concludes that Romania’s road freight traffic, measured in million tonne-km
(mntkm), is likely to grow at an annual average of 9.1% over the next five years.
An expanded motorway network will play an important role in this strong rate of growth, but other factors
will also play a part. GDP growth is expected to surge ahead by an annual average of 5.1% in 2007-2011,
underpinning demand for haulage. Closer integration with the wider European economy will be
important, with trade growing strongly and physical links to the main European transport corridors
opening up. We are now predicting average annual growth in freight carried across all modes, measured
in mntkm, of 7.7% in 2007-2011, ahead of GDP growth. We estimate that rail freight traffic will continue
the moderate recovery it started in 2004, although there was a setback in 2006, due to floods. As
competition begins to increase and investments take effect, rail freight traffic should pick up. However,
for the 2007-2011 forecast period, the annual rate of growth in rail freight traffic will be 4.1%, slower
than overall economic growth. Inland waterway traffic will rise by an annual average of 6.1% as
bottlenecks are removed from the Danube. Maritime freight will grow by an annual average of 6.5%.
Airfreight will see strong growth of an annual average of 12.2%, boosted by the spread of low-cost
airlines across Europe. The total value of transport and communications GDP will rise to US$25.4bn in
nominal terms by 2011, representing 11.2% of Romania’s GDP. The transport and communications sector
employed 453,300 people, or 5.0% of the labour force, last year. We see that figure falling to 453,100 by
2011, although it will remain constant at 5.0% as a share of the total workforce.
Romania has a composite score of 44 out of 70 for its BMI freight transport business environment rating.
This places it in the upper range among its European peers. The country scores well for long-term
political risk, transport infrastructure growth and transport intensity (an indicator of the dynamism of
foreign trade). It does less well, however, in areas such as long-term economic risk and the regulatory and
competitive environments.
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