BMI forecasts that the Romania will account for 2.65% of Central Eastern Europe (CEE) regional powergeneration by 2013, and remain a net exporter of electricity to neighbouring states. CEE power generationin 2008 was 2,610 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 1.35% over the previous year. Weare forecasting a rise in regional generation to 2,884TWh by 2013, representing an increase of 10.51%.
Thermal power generation in 2008 was around 1,342TWh, accounting for 51.42% of the total electricitysupplied in the region. Our forecast for 2013 is 1,384TWh, implying 3.11% growth that reduces onlyslightly the market share of thermal generation to 47.99% - in spite of environmental concerns promotingrenewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Romania’s thermal generation in 2008 was35.4TWh, or 2.64% of the regional total. By 2013, the country is expected to account for 3.11% ofregional thermal generation.
Gas is the dominant fuel source in Romania, accounting for 34.6% of primary energy demand (PED) in2008. Gas is followed by oil at 28.0%, coal at 20.4%, hydro at 10.2% and nuclear with a 6.7% share ofPED. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 1,518mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2013,representing 11.84% growth over the period. Romania’s 2008 market share of 2.78% is set to rise to2.87% by 2013. In 2008, Romania accounted for 3.17% of regional nuclear energy consumption, with aforecast market share of 2.87% by 2013.
Romania is now in fourth place in BMI’s updated Power Business Environment Ratings, just behindKazakhstan. The score reflects a relatively low level of import dependence, a high proportion ofrenewable energy, growing PED and an established competitive landscape. Over the medium term,Kazakhstan has the potential to pull further away from Romania, while Russia poses a threat below.
BMI expects Romanian real GDP growth to average 1.97% a year between 2009 and 2013, although the2009 forecast is for a decline of 5.70%. The population is set to contract from 21.4mn to 21.3mn, andGDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita are forecast to rise 13.9% and 1.1%, respectively.
The country’s power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 49.3TWh in 2008 to49.6TWh by the end of the forecast period, while theoretical surplus generation should rise from anestimated 15.3TWh in 2008 to a forecast 26.9TWh in 2013, assuming 3.7% annual growth in generation.
Between 2008 and 2018 we forecast an increase in Romanian electricity generation of 40.58%, towardsthe upper end of the projected range for the CEE region. This equates to 18.77% in the 2013-2018 period,up from 18.37% in 2008-2013. PED growth is set to increase from 15.43% in 2008-2013 to 18.77% in2013-2018, representing 37.09% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 48.5% in hydro-power useduring 2008-2018 is a key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by44.3% between 2008 and 2018. More detail of BMI’s long-term forecasts can be found later in the report.
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