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Home > Industrial Markets > Energy > Equipment
SIC' 10
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| Published Date:
September 2009
Published By:
Yole Developpement
Page Count:
230
Order Code:
R393-108
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This $2.6B Total Accessible
Market is part of the overall
$12B Si-based power discretes
business (2008).
Today the largest applications in
potential revenue remain Power
Supply PFC, UPS and Motor AC
drives. Tomorrow, EV/HEV and inverters
for PV installations will take
the lead exhibiting higher CAGR (>15%/year)
However, cost issues slow-down SiC
penetration and we only forecast
~4% of the overall Silicon-based
power discretes market to be displaced
by SiC in 2019.
Low-Voltage applications (< 1.2kV)
are representing over 99% of today
SiC device sales but we anticipate
a huge increase of Medium-Voltage
applications (1.2kV-1.7kV) in the
next 2 years. High-Voltage apps
will slowly appear from 2013-2014
along with technology improvement
and cost reduction.
The entrance of SiC in the promising
EV/HEV field has been postponed
to 2014 as no switch has reached
large volume production yet and
car makers are still improving
silicon IGBT technology. Moreover,
most of the current or new entrant
EV/HEV manufacturers are working
on both GaN and SiC for their nextgen
inverters and no choice has
been validated yet.
In the 600-1200 V range, promising
GaN technologies might threaten
SiC. However, SiC industry maturity
should protect it from frontal competition
at least for the 2 next years.
In 2008 the SiC device market
reached $23M. 2009 should exhibit
something similar as the economic
downturn has lead to a quasi null
growth rate this year. 2014 will be
the year of expected introduction
of SiC in the automotive industry
leading to a $100M market before
2015. In a decade from now, we
anticipate a market size of several
hundred million dollars, dominated
by EV/HEV and PV inverter applications.
4” IS IN FULL-PRODUCTION AND 6” IS IN THE STARTING BLOCKS
The total SiC substrate merchant
market, including both n-type and
S.I. has reached ~$48M in 2008. It
is expected to exceed $300M in a
decade.
CREE stays ahead of the competition,
but its relative market share
on the open market is shrinking as
II-VI, SiCrystal and several new
entrants are gaining momentum in
the substrate battle.
We saw the emergence of 2 new
entrants in SiC substrates in 2008:
N-Crystals (Russia) and Xiamen
Powerway Advanced Material Co., Ltd
(China) who are manufacturing and
marketing 2” and 3” SiC substrates
4H & 6H in both S.I. or n-type doping.
Early 2009, another Chinese company,
TankeBlue, announced impressive
progress on scale-up production
of 3” SiC wafers, exhibiting micropipe
density<10/cm². This let us
think that Chinese companies are
becoming more and more present
on the market place proposing
products with state-of-the-art specs
and competitive pricing.
We assess that the technical gap
between yesterday’s leaders and
today’s challengers is decreasing
day by day.
4” wafers are now at full-production
at CREE and in final qualification
phase at II-VI, Dow Corning and
Nippon Steel. 6” is already announced
by 2010. 150 mm wafers will definitely
accelerate the cost reduction
of SiC device manufacturing.
IF NO TRANSISTOR, NO BRIGHT FUTURE FOR SiC BUSINESS
Transistor availability is the key
condition to envision significant
market growth. According to recent
announcements from CREE, Semi-
South, TranSiC, Rohm or Mitsubishi,
we remain confident that 2010 will
see first commercial volume offers
in MOSFET, J-FET or BJT.
Once this condition is met, the SiC
device industry will have to cut the
cost to fit with client expectations.
2 parameters will have to be improved:
- SiC substrate $/mm² cost
- SiC device manufacturing cost
- and yield, with a particular emphasis
on epitaxy process.
The adoption of the SiC technology
will also have to go through the
severe qualification process of the
industry (especially in the automotive
sector). There, progress on reliability
and robustness must fit the
current silicon standards.
If all conditions are passed, then
we can forecast a $800M market
size for SiC devices in a decade
from now.
This report presents the detailed
major market metrics of the
current and projected SiC device
and substrate business, describing
the targeted applications, the key
players, the supply-chain, the
volumes and related market size of
each segment.
It gives the possible total accessible
market for SiC electronics,
highlighting the strengths and
weaknesses of this technology over
the current established silicon
technologies. It describes the
recent progress of device technologies
as well as the new challenges
offered by 4” and 6”
substrates.
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