|
|
Home > Business/Finance > Diversified Services > Shipping & Logistics
Singapore Freight Transportation Report Q2 2008
|
|
In late December and early January Singapore Airlines (SIA’s) ambitious plan to acquire a 24% stake anda management role in Shanghai-based China Eastern Airlines (CEA) for US$920mn, unraveled. Theacquisition, painstakingly negotiated over more than a year, would have given SIA a ‘way in’ to the fastgrowingChinese market, well on its way to becoming the largest aviation market in the world. It wasstymied, however, by an unforeseen realignment within China’s state-owned airline sector, leading to arevolt by minority shareholders in CEA. China National Aviation Holding (CNAH), the parent of AirChina, signaled that it would be prepared to offer at least HKD5 per share for a ‘significant’ holding inCEA, trumping the SIA offer constructed on a price of HKD3.80. Hong-Kong based Cathay Pacific,which is tied to Air China through cross-shareholdings, said it would ‘seriously consider’ any requests tojoin moves to create a strategic partnership between Air China and CEA. In effect, such a realignmentwould give Cathay Pacific the ‘way in’ to the Chinese market that SIA had sought to achieve. Whileclearly a setback for SIA, a number of analysts and brokers suggested Singapore’s main airline had donethe right thing by resisting the temptation to get into a bidding war with CNAH. SIA’s share pricesdipped on the news that its bid for CEA had failed, but a number of analysts said they remained bullish onthe airline. BMI’s newly-released Singapore Freight Transport Report concludes that led by SIA, thecountry’s air freight volume will rise by an annual average of 9.8% throughout the five year 2008-2012forecast period.
Our airfreight forecast is based on a number of factors. Our forecast for economic growth in 2008-2012now stands at an annual average GDP increase of 4.9%. SIA has established itself as one of the world’smost profitable airlines, and should benefit from the imminent introduction of the Airbus A380superjumbo. The strategic move into China opens up new possibilities, while the budget airline sector isalso looking dynamic.
Maritime cargo growth will also be vigorous, expected to average 8.9% per annum in volume terms,despite a growing competitive challenge from Chinese ports. Overall, we now expect average annualgrowth in freight tonnage across all modes to total 5.8% in 2008-2012. With an aggregate score of 75.4out of a theoretical maximum of 100, Singapore scores well in the BMI freight rating for Asia Pacific,coming out comfortably above the regional average. Its strong points include low long-term political andeconomic risk and a strong regulatory environment, as well as a moderate but healthy rate ofinfrastructure growth.
For the 2008-2012 forecast period, we expect the transport and communications sector to continueoutpacing the economy as a whole in value terms. It will achieve average annual growth of 5.3%, versus5.1% for overall GDP. The total value of transport and communications GDP will rise to US$24.2bn innominal terms by 2012, representing 12.1% of Singapore’s GDP.
|
Similar Products
• Trucking
Published Jun 2008 by First Research, Inc.
• Thoresen Thai Agencies PCL - SWOT Analysis
Published Jun 2008 by Datamonitor
• FKI plc - SWOT Analysis
Published Jun 2008 by Datamonitor
• TNT NV - SWOT Analysis
Published Jun 2008 by Datamonitor
• Sweden Post - SWOT Analysis
Published Jun 2008 by Datamonitor
• UTi Worldwide Inc. - SWOT Analysis
Published Jun 2008 by Datamonitor
• Arkansas Best Corporation - SWOT Analysis
Published Jun 2008 by Datamonitor
• Ryder System, Inc. - SWOT Analysis
Published Jun 2008 by Datamonitor
• Miscellaneous Storage & Warehousing in the US - Industry Market Research Report
Published Jun 2008 by IBISWorld
• Packing and crating: Industry Cluster Report
Published Jun 2008 by BizMiner
|
|
|
|
0 items
