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Home > Manufacturing > Fabrication > Building/Construction
South Africa Infrastructure Report Q3 2009
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In BMI’s Q309 South Africa Infrastructure Report we are forecasting real growth in the constructionindustry of 2.52% in 2009, to reach a value of ZAR69.70bn (US$6.89bn). Due to a revised methodologyand an increase in forecasts for real capital investment growth in 2009, we have revised upwards ourforecast from 1.24% for 2009 as stated in our Q209 report. Our optimism for South Africa’s constructionindustry appears to have been well placed as Q109 real construction industry figures released by StatisticsSouth Africa in May 2009 show 12% real growth in the construction industry value compared with Q12008. Depending on Q2 figures, we may revise our figures upwards again in Q409.
South Africa’s infrastructure sector is being stimulated by a number of factors. In the transport sector,preparations for the country’s hosting of the 2010 FIFA World Cup are continuing to driveimprovements, with the majority of large projects under way and nearing completion as the tournamentapproaches. The reconstruction of OR Tambo Airport in Johannesburg is progressing, with the newdepartures hall having been completed in April 2009 and the first phase of the Gauteng FreewayImprovement Project due to be completed in April 2010. South Africa’s ports are also getting an upgradeincluding Durban and Richard’s Bay as part of Transnet’s ZAR80bn, five-year plan, which will upgraderail, pipelines and ports.
Developments in the power sector are continuing to be driven by Eskom’s expansion plans in response tosevere power shortages in early 2008 and years of underinvestment. The company has been working toraise financing for its projects and in May signed an agreement with seven European banks forEUR530mn. A portion of this loan will be put towards the 4,800MW coal-fired Medupi power plant,which is currently under construction with the first units due to come online from 2012. The cancelledinitial plan for a second nuclear power plant in South Africa had new life breathed into it in May 2009when a plan for the environmental impact assessment was released to the public. The plan includes atimeframe for the 4,000MW plant, which is due to be completed in 2018, and proposed locations.
Despite these factors driving growth in South Africa, the country’s construction industry will not beimmune from the overriding macroeconomic climate, which is forecast to lead to a slight contraction inreal GDP in 2009 of 0.3%. The impact of this on the construction industry will be felt in 2009 as realgrowth slows from 13.9% in 2008 to 2.52% in 2009. This is illustrated by the limited number of projectsthat we have recorded over the past quarter. Indeed, growth rates seen in 2008 will not return before theend of our forecast period, although we do expect growth to plateau at between 5.5% and 6% y-o-y in2012-2013.
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