The new Thailand Power Report forecasts that Thailand will account for 1.90% of Asia Pacific regionalpower generation by 2013, with a broadly balanced supply/demand picture. BMI’s Asia Pacific powergeneration assumption for 2008 is 7,116 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 3.2% over theprevious year. We are forecasting an increase in regional generation to 9,149TWh by 2013, representing arise of 28.6%.
Thermal power generation in 2008 totalled an estimated 5,590TWh, accounting for 78.6% of the totalelectricity supplied in the Asia Pacific region. Our forecast for 2013 is 7,046TWh, implying 26.0%growth that reduces the market share of thermal generation to 77.0%. This is thanks largely toenvironmental concerns promoting renewable sources, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation.
Thailand’s thermal generation in 2008 was 140TWh, or 2.51% of the regional total. By 2013, the countryis expected to account for 2.33% of thermal generation.
For Thailand, oil is the dominant fuel, accounting for 42.1% of 2008 primary energy demand (PED),followed by gas at 38.6%, coal at 17.6% and hydro-electricity with a 1.8% share of PED. Regional energydemand is forecast to reach 4,862mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2013, representing 25.1% growthfrom the 2008 level. Thailand’s 2008 market share of 2.25% is set to fall to 2.09% by 2013. Thailand’s6.9TWh of hydro-electric demand in 2008 is forecast to reach 9.2TWh by 2013, with its share of the AsiaPacific hydro market easing from 0.78% to 0.68% over the period. While there is no existing or near-termnuclear capacity, tentative plans exist for the construction of reactors, but there is no clear governmentpolicy.
Thailand is now ranked ninth above Hong Kong in BMI’s enlarged and updated Power BusinessEnvironment rating, thanks largely to its energy demand, plus moderate scores in most other categories.The country is at little risk from Hong Kong below it, and has the long-term potential to catch Malaysiaor the Philippines above it.
BMI is now forecasting Thai real GDP growth averaging 2.12% per annum between 2009 and 2013, withthe 2009 estimate being a decline of 3.80%. Population is expected to expand from 64.3mn to 66.2mnover the period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to increase by 40%and 11% respectively. The country’s power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated146TWh in 2008 to 167TWh by the end of the forecast period, requiring some power imports duringperiods of peak demand, assuming 3.2% average annual growth in electricity generation.
Between 2008 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Thai electricity generation of 44.7%, which isnear the middle of the range for the Asia Pacific region. This equates to 22.8% in the 2013-2018 period,up from 17.8% in 2008-2013. PED growth is set to increase from 16.1% in 2008-2013 to 16.5%,representing 35.3% for the entire forecast period. Hydro generation is expected to rise by 45% between2008 and 2018, with thermal power generation also forecast to increase by 45% over the same period.More detailed long-term BMI power forecasts can be found later in this report.
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