The economic downturn and seasonal trends were blamed for the significant decline in net additions forQ109 compared to Q408. This, combined with Hutchison Telecom discounting inactive subscribers,amounted to 814,000 new subscribers in Q109, compared to 2.062mn net additions in Q408. By the endof March 2009, there were a total of 62.633mn subscribers.
Operators determined to minimise the impact of the economic downturn on their market shares haveresorted to price war tactics, largely confined to the prepaid market. By the end of March 2009, thenumber of prepaid subscribers had risen by 1.3% in the quarter, with postpaid up by 0.43% in the samequarter. Prepaid accounted for 89.6% of the total in March.
The National Telecommunications Commission (NTC) plans to generate greater competition in the sectorby introducing MNP in November 2009. It hopes this will force operators to further lower their tariffs.
However, the overwhelming dominance of the prepaid market will see MNP have little impact ascustomers prefer to switch mobile numbers rather than pay a porting fee.
Our expectations are therefore that the prepaid market will continue to be the main driver behind growthin the mobile sector for some time and that, by 2009, there will be close to 70mn subscribers and apenetration rate of 108% before rising to 148% in 2013. The strength of prepaid will also be encouragedby the decision to delay the award of 3G licences until 2010, while operators continue to expand theirnetworks into rural markets as urban areas face saturation.
The impact of this to blended ARPUs will continue to be negative. BMI is for the first time forecastingaverage blended ARPU. Our ARPU forecast for Thailand is based on historical data published by themajor operators. This includes AIS, DTAC, True and Hutchison. According to the operators, they hadan average blended ARPU of THB256 in 2008, representing a 12.9% y-o-y decline. It is BMI’sexpectation that average blended ARPU rates will have fallen further during the course of 2010 toTHB207, and by 2013, reaching THB179.
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