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Home > Communications > Telecommunications > General Telecom
Turkey Telecommunications Report Q2 2008
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In the third quarter of 2007, the number of Turkish mobile subscribers increased by an estimated 4% toreach 59.849mn.
Vodafone expanded its Turkish subscriber base by 5.3% in the third quarter, whileTurkcell’s subscriber base grew by 3%. We estimate that during the first nine months of 2007, 7.421mnnew mobile customers were added to the Turkish market market. At the time of writing, only Vodafonehad published end of year data and, judging by the figures published by Vodafone, the operator hasexperienced a dramatic slowdown in net subscriber gains. Based on Vodafone’s Q407 growthexperiences, as well as our estimates for the number of Turkcell and Avea subscribers at the end of 2007,we are decided to leave our forecast figures for Turkey’s mobile market unchanged. We estimate thatthere were 62.161mn mobile customers at the end of 2007, giving a penetration rate of 83%. We maintainour belief that growth will slow during 2008 and the rest of the decade, as the market approachessaturation and operators place an increasing emphasis on next-generation services and migrating existingcustomers onto post-paid contracts. We anticipate that penetration will exceed 100% in 2010, rising toaround 116% by the end of our forecast period in 2012. Meanwhile, little progress appears to have beenmade by Turkey’s telecoms regulator regarding the licensing of 3G services, following the annulment ofthe country’s original 3G tender in September 2007. Two of the country’s three mobile operators -Vodafone and Avea - boycotted the tender in protest at delays in the implementation of mobile numberportability in Turkey. That left mobile market leader Turkcell as the only bidder and the regulator arguedthat the licences must be awarded in a competitive tender process.
Recent news on developments within Turkey’s telecoms sector has focused on the possible furtherprivatisation of fixed-line incumbent Türk Telekom. Local reports indicated in early January 2008 thatthe government hoped to earn US$2bn through the sale of a 15% stake in Türk Telekom. Metin Kilci,head of the privatisation administration, has reportedly said that Türk Telekom shares will be sold in aninitial public offering (IPO) by 10 May 2008. Telekom’s value has risen since the government sold 55%of the company to Saudi Oger for US$6.6bn in November 2005.
Meanwhile, it was announced in January 2008 that India’s Dhanus Technologies had acquired 100% ofTurkish alternative telco Borusan Telekom for US$30mn including debt of US$25mn, beating interestfrom companies including Hutchison Whampoa of Hong Kong and an unnamed US telecoms firm.Borusan Telekom is focused on providing corporate fixed line services, with estimated annual revenues ofUS$70mn.
Turkey sits in ninth place in our latest set of revised Business Environment Rankings for the Middle East.Although Turkey has a relatively high score for regulatory independence, it suffers from having a lowcountry risk score and the lowest country structure in the Middle East.
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