In this report, BMI forecasts that Venezuela will account for 12.31% of Latin America regional powergeneration by 2012. BMI’s Latin America power generation estimate for 2007 is 1,088 terawatt hours(TWh), representing an increase of 3.5% over the previous year. We are forecasting growth in regionalgeneration to 1,356TWh by 2012, representing a rise of 24.6%.
Latin American thermal power generation in 2007 is estimated by BMI at 379.2TWh, accounting for34.8% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2012 is 487.7TWh, implying 28.6%growth, increasing the market share of thermal generation to 36.0% - in spite of environmental concernsthat should mean greater use of renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear power. Venezuela’s thermalgeneration in 2007 was 38.5TWh, or 10.2% of the regional total. By 2012, the country is expected to stillaccount for 10.2% of thermal generation.
For Venezuela, oil is the dominant fuel, accounting for 37.5% of 2007 primary energy demand (PED),followed by gas at 35.9%, and hydro-electric energy with a 26.6% share of PED. Regional energydemand is forecast to reach 619mn toe by 2012, representing 20.0% growth over the period. Venezuela’s2007 market share of 13.83% is set to rise to 16.26% by 2012.
Venezuela is ranked equal fourth, alongside Argentina and above only Mexico in BMI’s Power BusinessEnvironment rating, thanks to its likely energy demand growth, considerable generating capacity and lowlevel of energy import dependency. The under-developed competitive landscape, regulatory issues andthreat of asset renationalisation conspire with country risk factors to deliver a low score that should beenough to keep Mexico at bay, but insufficient to provide upwards movement in the league table.BMI is now forecasting Venezuelan real GDP growth averaging 4.53% per annum between 2007 and2012, with the 2008 forecast being 5.80%. Population is expected to expand from 27.8mn to 30.5mn overthe period, with GDP per capita forecast to increase significantly (by 74%). A near-6.0% increase inelectricity consumption per capita is forecast, with the country’s power consumption expected to increasefrom 97TWh in 2007 to 113TWh by the end of the forecast period, providing greater export potential onthe basis of 5.7% annual growth in generating capacity.
Between 2007 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Venezuelan electricity generation of 79.2%,which is near the top of the range for the Latin America region. This equates to 27.6% in the 2013-2018period, down from 33.7% in 2007-12. PED growth is set to fall from 41.0% in 2007-12 to 23.5%,representing 81.2% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 82% in hydropower use during 2007-18is one key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 73% between2007 and 2018. More details of the longer-term BMI power forecasts can be found in the Appendix ofthis report.
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