In this report, BMI forecasts that Venezuela will account for 10.49% of Latin America regional powergeneration by 2013. BMI’s Latin America power generation estimate for 2008 is 1,130 terawatt hours(TWh), representing an increase of 2.5% over the previous year. We are forecasting growth in regionalgeneration to 1,320TWh by 2013, representing a rise of 16.9%.
Latin American thermal power generation in 2008 is estimated by BMI at 453TWh, accounting for 40.0%of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2013 is 523TWh, implying 15.5% growth,trimming the market share of thermal generation to 39.6% - in spite of environmental concerns thatshould be promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear power of environmental concerns thatshould be promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear power. Venezuela’s thermal generation in2008 was around 32TWh, or 7.08% of the regional total. By 2013, the country is expected to account for7.71% of thermal generation.
For Venezuela, oil is the dominant fuel, accounting for 40.0% of 2008 primary energy demand (PED),followed by gas at 35.8%, and hydro-electric energy with a 24.2% share of PED. Regional energydemand is forecast to reach 726mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2013, representing 14.5% growth.Venezuela’s 2008 market share of 12.84% is set to ease to 12.62% by 2013.
Venezuela is still ranked sixth and last, behind even Mexico, in BMI’s power sector BusinessEnvironment Ratings, in spite of its likely energy demand growth, considerable generating capacity andlow level of energy import dependency. The underdeveloped competitive landscape, regulatory issues andasset renationalisation conspire with country risk factors to deliver a particularly low score that may beinsufficient over the longer term to allow Venezuela to challenge Mexico above it.
BMI forecasts an average annual decline of 0.66% in Venezuelan real GDP growth between 2008 and2013, with a fall of 5.60% forecast in 2009. Population is expected to expand from 28.3mn to 31.0mnover the period, with GDP per capita forecast to increase by 8.5%. Electricity consumption per capita isexpected to rise by 4.7% during the period. The country’s power consumption is expected to increasefrom an estimated 104TWh in 2008 to 119TWh by 2013, providing a continuing theoretical surplus onthe basis of 3.3% annual average growth in electricity generation. Between 2008 and 2018, we areforecasting an increase in Venezuelan electricity generation of 45.3%, which is around the middle of therange for the Latin America region. This equates to 25.2% in the 2013-2018 period, up from 16.1% in2008-2013. PED growth is set to rise from 12.6% in 2008-2013 to 22.8% in 2013-2018, representing38.3% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 41% in hydro-power use during 2008-2018 is one keyelement of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 57% between 2008 and2018. More details of the longer-term BMI power forecasts can be found later in this report.
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