Industry Research Reports and Market Analysis at MindBranch.com

Television 2015 - The Future Of TV Financing In Europe

Published By: IDATE
March 2006
R221-147
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Description

This report looks at the future of European television based on an indepth analysis of the industry in 2005 covering competition between TV distribution networks, the emergence of new offerings, the threat from new entrants, gradual changes in media consumption, choices made by advertisers etc.

An increasingly diversified and high quality multi-channel TV offering
  • Deployment of VOD on cable and ADSL networks
  • PVR and media centre offerings
  • The beginnings of mobile TV and HD TV
New Internet practices likely to revolutionise the world of TV
  • Blogging, Vlogging and Podcasting spread in the USA
  • The number of video search engines rises
  • The emergence of TV Peer-to-Peer networks
An open-ended outlook clouded by uncertainty
  • Media consumption habits grow increasingly complex but change slowly
  • Will advertisers question the effectiveness of TV in the future?
  • Winning strategies for providers are far from clearly defined
Imagining the future of TV
  • To anticipate future trends and identify factors of change as far as possible
  • To improve the evaluation of certain challenges and opportunities
  • To consider the various options and assess their consequences


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Table of Contents
1. Introduction
1.1. Objectives
1.2. Methodology
General approach
Scenario development

2. Diagnosis
2.1. TV sector financing
Economic relationships that vary by TV distribution network
Revenue driven by pay TV
Financial situations that vary by type of player
Sector financing structure undergoing change
2.2. “Media” consumption characteristics
"New replacing the old"
Steady rise in communication product and service use and consumption
A new way of watching television
The Internet, still not entirely an entertainment medium …
Is the mobile telephone turning into a hobby?
Spending decisions indicative of change
2.3. Advertiser strategies against TV audience fragmentation
"TV + ad", until now a winning model for advertisers
TV, the main advertising medium in Europe
Television advertising threatened
What are the options for advertisers?
2.4. Enhanced TV offerings
Greater diversity with digital
TV over ADSL, taking promising first steps
Personal TV, the next stage?
Mobile TV becomes a reality
Toward better quality with HDTV

3. What are the challenges in the medium-to-long-term?
3.1. The Internet: facing up to the threat
A massive increase in the population of high speed subscribers
Illegal downloading of films and TV programmes
Blogging, Vlogging and Podcasting
The inevitable rise of Internet TV
3.2. Future consumption habits of today’s youth
Younger generation sets new trends…
A certain appreciation of ICT
Electronic entertainment equipment for the younger generation
Media practices of the “Internet generation”
3.3. Telecom operators: threats or opportunities?
Finding new avenues for growth
TV over DSL
Mobile video and TV services
3.4. Developing strategies for pertinent offerings
Defining a strategy for an appropriate multi-play offering
Mobile TV: finding the best development model
3.5. The audiovisual policy, regulatory and legal framework: making the right choice
The revision of the TWF directive
Rethink or keep the media chronology
Towards a system of free licences to ensure copyright protection?

4. Scenarios for the future
4.1. Backdrop…
A few “certainties”
Regulations - Audiovisual policy
Exogenous factors with an impact
4.2. Presentation of key scenarios
The key variables
Scenario composition
Fundamental hypotheses
Scenario 1: "TV in complete freedom"
Review of the main events in the period 2005-2015
An update on the economic models in place
4.2.2. Scenario 2: "Welcome to the world of egocasting"
The state of the TV market in 2015
A look back on the main events of 2005-2015
Review of the economic models in place
4.2.3 Scenario 3: "Reign of the media brands"
The state of the TV market in 2015
A look back on the main events of 2005-2015
Review of the economic models in place
4.3. What are the impacts?
France
Germany
Italy
Spain
United Kingdom

5. Conclusions
Towards a new paradigm for television…
Breakthrough elements
Irreversible developments
But a promising future
A few triggers to consider
IDATE presentation
DigiWorld Catalogue 2005


List of boxes
Box 1: Finland - Initial results of the FinPilot commercial trial
Box 2: Economic growth as the main determinant of advertising investment
Box 3: Some alternatives to televised advertising
Box 4: European advertising market development in the medium-to-long term
Box 5: IPTV differs from TV over ADSL
Box 6: Would the TiVo model be successful in Europe?
Box 7: Could an S-DMB solution be envisaged for Europe?
Box 8: HDTV = MPEG4
Box 9: The BitTorrent file distribution system
Box 10: Music and the Internet
Box 11: What is an RSS feed?
Box 12:TV on the Internet differs from IPTV
Box 13: Creative Commons Licences


List of figures
Figure 1: Overview diagram of financial flows in the TV value-added chain
Figure 2: Financial flows in the value-added chain: ADSL (1st system)
Figure 3: Financial flows in the value-added chain: ADSL (2nd system)
Figure 4: 2000-2004 revenue trends in the European Union TV sector (UE-15)
Figure 5: Changes in the TV sector financing structure in France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK
Figure 6: 2003 turnover for T-commerce services in Europe (EUR million)
Figure 7: 2003 turnover for pay-per-view services in Europe (in million of EUR)
Figure 8: Sources of alternative TV income in the United Kingdom - 2004 (GBP million)
Figure 9: Increases in the annual number of text messages sent in United Kingdom
Figure 10: Simultaneous use of multiple media in the United States
Figure 11: Media consumption in the five main European countries in 2003
Figure 12: Europeans’ media consumption
Figure 13: Average weekly media consumption by British households (hours)
Figure 14: Changes in British TV channel audience share - 1994-2004
Figure 15: Distribution of iTV households by medium and geographic area - end 2003
Figure 16: Utilisation of pay-per-view services by British households having cable or satellite TV in 2004
Figure 17: Structure of PVR installed base in the United States (n= 611)
Figure 18: Types of real-time programmes watched in American households with a DVR
Figure 19: French interest in various types of television on demand
Figure 20: French uses of the Internet
Figure 21: The market for mobile phone content in Western Europe - 2004
Figure 22: Expected uses of mobile TV
Figure 23: Trends in entertainment spending by sector - 1998-2003
Figure 24: Changes in the annual media spending of US households 1999-2005
Figure 25: Trends in communication spending, 2000-2005
Figure 26: Weekly coverage of the various media in Europe* - end of 2004
Figure 27: Changes in the relative share of TV in advertising investment in Europe
Figure 28: Comparison of annual GDP growth and advertising investment - United States
Figure 29: United States - Comparison of trends in prime time1 advertising investment and TV audience
Figure 30: Advertising and PVR-equipped households in the United States in 2004
Figure 31: Changes in net advertising investment in the United Kingdom (GBP millions)
Figure 32: Illustration of Brand Entertainment strategy
Figure 33: Illustration of Media Hub strategy
Figure 34: 2003-2007 Changes in advertising investment in Europe and the United States
Figure 35: Penetration of digital technologies in the United Kingdom (2005)
Figure 36: Types of TV reception in the 5 main EU countries - end 2004 (% of households)
Figure 37: Proportion of multi-channel TV households in Europe in 2004
Figure 38: Relative share of pay TV in the 5 main EU countries - (millions of TV households)
Figure 39: Broadband service development
Figure 40: Penetration of broadband Internet in households (%)
Figure 41: Thomson’s jukebox video
Figure 42: The Media Centre PC by Sony Vaio
Figure 43: Windows XP Media Center software by Microsoft
Figure 44: The Home Vita solution by Samsung
Figure 45: Chronology of the introduction of mobile video service
Figure 46: Timeframe for main advances in terminal technology
Figure 47: The mobile multimedia added-value chain
Figure 48: Change in the broadband installed base since 2001
Figure 49: Geographic origin of illegal TV broadcast downloads
Figure 50: FireANT, video RSS aggregator dedicated to vlogging
Figure 51: iPodder X, an RSS reader dedicated to podcasting
Figure 52: EPG offered by OMN
Figure 53: Evolution of generations in France
Figure 54: The values conveyed by ICT and aspirations of the younger generation
Figure 55: Perception of the media by French youth aged 15 to 24 years
Figure 56: Media-time budget of Europeans aged 15-24 years
Figure 57: Time spent watching TV each day by French people
Figure 58: Fluctuation in TV audience of French 18 to 22 year olds
Figure 59: Proportion of the French population ‘quite’ or ‘very interested’ in new TV equipment and services
Figure 60: Positioning of bundles in operators’ strategies
Figure 61: Positioning of the main types of player on the added-value chain for the distribution of audiovisual
content on mobiles
Figure 62: Organisation of the timeframes for broadcasting films on the different audiovisual media in France
Figure 63: Scenario 1 - Media consumption breakdown in 2015
Figure 64: Scenario 1 - Use of the different media in 2015
Figure 65: Scenario 1 - Penetration of digital technologies in 2015
Figure 66: Scenario 2 - Structure of Media consumption in 2015
Figure 67: Scenario 2 - Media utilisation in 2015
Figure 68: Average TV ratings in 2015 (%)
Figure 69: Scenario 2 - Penetration of digital technologies in 2015
Figure 70: Scenario 3 - Structure of media consumption in 2015
Figure 71: Scenario 3 - Media utilisation in 2015
Figure 72: Scenario 3 - Penetration of digital technologies in 2015
Figure 73: Type of screen proposed by the television portals
Figure 74: TV financing structure in France - 2004
Figure 75: Changes in advertising investment by medium in France
Figure 76: Structure of advertising investment by medium in France in 2004
Figure 77: Changes in advertising investment in the Internet in France
Figure 78: TV reception modes up to 2015 in France, Scenario 1
Figure 79: Changes in TV sector turnover in France, Scenario 1
Figure 80: Changes in TV sector revenue structure up to 2015 in France, Scenario 1
Figure 81: TV reception modes in France to 2015, Scenario 2
Figure 82: Changes in TV sector turnover in France, Scenario 2
Figure 83: Changes in TV sector revenue structure up to 2015 in France, Scenario 2
Figure 84: TV reception modes in France up to 2015, Scenario 3
Figure 85: Changes in TV sector turnover in France, Scenario 3
Figure 86: Changes in TV sector revenue structure up to 2015 in France, Scenario 3
Figure 87: Structure of TV financing in Germany in 2004
Figure 88: Changes in advertising investment by medium in Germany
Figure 89: Structure of advertising investment by medium in Germany in 2004
Figure 90: Changes in advertising investment in the Internet in Germany
Figure 91: TV reception in Germany to 2015, Scenario 1
Figure 92: Changes in TV sector turnover in Germany, Scenario 1
Figure 93: Changes in TV sector revenue structure in Germany up to 2015, Scenario 1
Figure 94: TV reception in Germany up to 2015, Scenario 2
Figure 95: Changes in TV sector turnover in Germany, Scenario 2
Figure 96: Changes in TV sector revenue structure up to 2015 in Germany, Scenario 2
Figure 97: TV reception in Germany up to 2015, Scenario 3
Figure 98: Changes in TV sector turnover in Germany, Scenario 3
Figure 99: Changes in TV sector revenue structure up to 2015 in Germany, Scenario 3
Figure 100: TV financing structure in Italy in 2004
Figure 101: Changes in advertising investment by medium in Italy
Figure 102: Structure of advertising investment by medium in Italy in 2004
Figure 103: Changes in advertising investment on the Internet in Italy
Figure 104: TV reception in Italy up to 2015, Scenario 1
Figure 105: Changes in TV sector turnover in Italy, Scenario 1
Figure 106: Changes in TV sector revenue structure up to 2015 in Italy, Scenario 1
Figure 107: TV reception in Italy up to 2015, Scenario 2
Figure 108: Changes in TV sector turnover in Italy, Scenario 2
Figure 109: Changes in TV sector revenue structure up to 2015 in Italy, Scenario 2
Figure 110: TV reception in Italy up to 2015, Scenario 3
Figure 111: Changes in TV sector turnover in Italy, Scenario 3
Figure 112: Changes in TV sector revenue structure up to 2015 in Italy, Scenario 3
Figure 113: TV financing structure in Spain in 2004
Figure 114: Changes in advertising investment by medium in Spain
Figure 115: Structure of advertising investment by medium in Spain in 2004
Figure 116: Changes in advertising investment on the Internet in Spain
Figure 117: TV reception in Spain up to 2015, Scenario 1
Figure 118: Changes in TV sector turnover in Spain, Scenario1
Figure 119: Changes in TV sector revenue structure up to 2015 in Spain, Scenario1
Figure 120: TV reception in Spain up to 2015, Scenario 2
Figure 121: Changes in TV sector turnover in Spain, Scenario 2
Figure 122: Changes in TV sector revenue structure up to 2015 in Spain, Scenario 2
Figure 123: TV reception in Spain up to 2015, Scenario 3
Figure 124: Changes in TV sector turnover in Spain, Scenario 3
Figure 125: Changes in TV sector revenue structure up to 2015 in Spain, Scenario 3
Figure 126: TV financing structure in the United Kingdom in 2004
Figure 127: Changes in TV financing in the United Kingdom by type of player (2000-2004)
Figure 128: Changes in advertising investment by medium in the United Kingdom
Figure 129: Structure of advertising investment by medium in the United Kingdom in 2004
Figure 130: Changes in advertising investment on the Internet in the United Kingdom
Figure 131: TV reception in the United Kingdom up to 2015, Scenario 1
Figure 132: Changes in TV sector turnover in the United Kingdom, Scenario 1
Figure 133: Changes in TV sector revenue structure up to 2015 in the United Kingdom, Scenario 1
Figure 134: TV reception in the United Kingdom up to 2015, Scenario 2
Figure 135: Changes in TV sector turnover in the United Kingdom, Scenario 2
Figure 136: Changes in TV sector revenue structure up to 2015 in the United Kingdom, Scenario 2
Figure 137: TV reception in United Kingdom up to 2015, Scenario 3
Figure 138: Changes in TV sector turnover in the United Kingdom, Scenario 3
Figure 139: Changes in TV sector revenue structure up to 2015 in the United Kingdom, Scenario 3
Figure 140: Stages of the television industry in Europe


List of tables
Table 1: Monthly ARPU for pay TV in 2003 (EUR)
Table 2: Operating revenue of European Union television firms (EU-25)
Table 3: Profit margin of European Union television firms (%)
Table 4: Communication product and service penetration of European households in 2004
Table 5: Structure of media consumption in the United States, 2000-2005
Table 6: Weekly time spent watching the television in France
Table 7: "Cost" of increasing Internet use in Europe in 2004
Table 8: Weekly allocation of entertainment time in the United States according to Internet use
Table 9: Gross cost of French media per 1,000 contacts (in EUR)
Table 10: Changes in network audience share in the United States
Table 11: Comparative advantages of various advertising media
Table 12: Changes in thematic TV channels’ relative share of total advertising investment in France
Table 13: Annual growth rate for the advertising market (%)
Table 14: Changes in media share of total advertising investment - Europe
Table 15: Digital TV households in Europe, by country
Table 16: European digital terrestrial television deployment plans
Table 17: Level of IPTV service development in the main European countries (as of the end of June 2005)
Table 18: Main IP television services in Europe (June 2005)
Table 19: Examples of IPTV services announced in Europe
Table 20: Availability of IP video and television services from the main operators of TV over DSL in Europe
Table 21: Overview of personal TV offerings in the United States - 2005
Table 22: Main VOD offerings in Europe
Table 23: VOD offerings in the United States (2005)
Table 24: VOD services available in Europe
Table 25: Worldwide installed base of PVRs (thousands of households)
Table 26: Comparison of various ways of accessing mobile TV and video services
Table 27: Strengths and weaknesses of the main mobile TV broadcast technologies
Table 28: Examples of mobile video streaming and downloading in 2005
Table 29: Charges for 2.5G mobile services
Table 30: Examples of revenue-sharing between mobile operators and content providers (all content)
Table 31: Main TV-to-mobile-broadcast projects and tests in 2005
Table 32: Main TV-to-mobile-broadcast projects and tests in 2005 (cont/d)
Table 33: Overview of HDTV services around the world
Table 34: European networks supporting HD service broadcasts
Table 35: Prospects for high-definition TV deployment in Europe
Table 36: Film downloads over the Internet
Table 37: Media development according to Intel
Table 38: Electronic entertainment equipment used by French youth
Table 39: Proportion of Internet users among French youth aged 15-24 years
Table 40: Trends in Internet use by French youth aged 15-24 years
Table 41: Proportion of North Americans regularly or occasionally using “new media” in 2004
Table 42: Proportion of the French population regularly using "new media" in 2004
Table 43: Interest of the French population in mobile video in 2004
Table 44: Changes in the positioning of the various players with respect to service offerings
Table 45: Range of services offered by landline telecommunications operators (bundles or otherwise)
Table 46: Bundle strategy typology
Table 47: TV and video offerings of the main telecommunications operators in Europe - end 2005
Table 48: Trends for the main macro-economic indicators for the Euro zone up to the year 2030
Table 49: Trends in GDP up to 2021 in the countries covered by the study
Table 50: Medium-to-long-term objectives and challenges for the main players in the television added-value chain
Table 51: Key variables in the development of the financing of the TV sector and factors influencing their
development
Table 52: Summary presentation of the three scenarios established by IDATE
Table 53: TV reception trends in France - installed base by medium
Table 54: Main TV channels in France
Table 55: Audience share of main TV channels in France (%)
Table 56: Main subscription TV operators in France
Table 57: Changes in audiovisual revenue in France
Table 58: Changes in TV sector revenue up to 2015 in France by source of revenue, Scenario 1
Table 59: Changes in TV sector revenue up to 2015 in France by TV broadcast medium, Scenario 1
Table 60: Changes in TV sector revenue up to 2015 in France by type of player, Scenario 1
Table 61: Changes in TV sector revenue up to 2015 in France by source of revenue, Scenario 2
Table 62: Changes in TV sector revenue up to 2015 in France by TV broadcast medium, Scenario 2
Table 63: Changes in TV sector revenue up to 2015 in France by type of player, Scenario 2
Table 64: Changes in TV sector revenue up to 2015 in France by source of revenue, Scenario 3
Table 65: Changes in TV sector revenue up to 2015 in France by TV broadcast medium, Scenario 3
Table 66: Changes in TV sector revenue up to 2015 in France by type of player, Scenario 3
Table 67:TV reception trends in Germany - installed base by medium
Table 68: Main TV channels in Germany
Table 69: Audience share of main TV channels in Germany (%)
Table 70: Main subscription TV operators in Germany
Table 71: Changes in TV revenue in Germany
Table 72: Changes in TV sector revenue up to 2015 in Germany by source of revenue, Scenario 1
Table 73: Changes in TV sector revenue in Germany up to 2015 by TV broadcast medium, Scenario 1
Table 74: Changes in TV sector revenue in Germany up to 2015 by type of player, Scenario 1
Table 75: Changes in TV sector revenue in Germany up to 2015 by source of revenue, Scenario 2
Table 76: Changes in TV sector revenue in Germany up to 2015 by TV broadcast medium, Scenario 2
Table 77: Changes in TV sector revenue in Germany up to 2015 by type of player, Scenario 2
Table 78: Changes in TV sector revenue in Germany up to 2015 by source of revenue, Scenario 3
Table 79: Changes in TV sector revenue in Germany up to 2015 by TV broadcast medium, Scenario 3
Table 80: Changes in TV sector revenue in Germany up to 2015 by type of player, Scenario 3
Table 81: TV reception trends in Italy - installed base by medium
Table 82: Main TV channels in Italy
Table 83: Audience share of main TV channels in Italy (%)
Table 84: Main subscription TV operators in Italy
Table 85: Changes in TV revenue in Italy
Table 86: Changes in revenue of the TV sector up to 2015 in Italy by source of revenue, Scenario 1
Table 87: Changes in TV sector revenue up to 2015 in Italy
Table 88: Changes in TV sector revenue up to 2015 In Italy by type of player, Scenario 1
Table 89: Changes in TV sector revenue up to 2015 in Italy by source of revenue, Scenario 2
Table 90: Changes in TV sector revenue up to 2015 in Italy by TV broadcast medium, Scenario 2
Table 91: Changes in TV sector revenue up to 2015 in Italy by type of player, Scenario 2
Table 92: Changes in TV sector revenue up to 2015 in Italy by source of revenue, Scenario 3
Table 93: Changes in TV sector revenue up to 2015 in Italy by TV broadcast medium, Scenario 3
Table 94: Changes in TV sector revenue up to 2015 in Italy
Table 95: TV reception trends in Spain - installed base by medium
Table 96: Main TV channels in Spain
Table 97: Audience share of main TV channels in Spain (%)
Table 98: Main subscription TV operators in Spain
Table 99: Changes in TV revenue in Spain
Table 100: Changes in TV sector revenue up to 2015 in Spain by source of revenue, Scenario 1
Table 101: Changes in TV sector revenue up to 2015 in Spain by TV broadcast medium, Scenario 1
Table 102: Changes in TV sector revenue up to 2015 in Spain by type of player, Scenario 1
Table 103: Changes in TV sector revenue up to 2015 in Spain by source of revenue, Scenario 2
Table 104: Changes in TV sector revenue up to 2015 in Spain by TV broadcast medium, Scenario 2
Table 105: Changes in TV sector revenue up to 2015 in Spain by type of player, Scenario 2
Table 106: Changes in TV sector revenue up to 2015 in Spain by source of revenue, Scenario 3
Table 107: Changes in TV sector revenue up to 2015in Spain by TV broadcast medium, Scenario 3
Table 108: Changes in TV sector revenue up to 2015 in Spain by type of player, Scenario 3
Table 109: TV reception trends in the United Kingdom - installed base by medium
Table 110: Main TV channels in the United Kingdom
Table 111: Audience share of main TV channels in the United Kingdom (%)
Table 112: Main subscription TV operators in the United Kingdom
Table 113: Changes in audiovisual revenue in the United Kingdom
Table 114: Changes in TV sector revenue up to 2015 in the United Kingdom by source of revenue, Scenario
Table 115: Changes in TV sector revenue up to 2015 in the United Kingdom by TV broadcast medium, Scenario
Table 116: Changes in TV sector revenue up to 2015 in the United Kingdom by type of player, Scenario 1
Table 117: Changes in TV sector revenue up to 2015 in the United Kingdom by source of revenue, Scenario
Table 118: Changes in TV sector revenue up to 2015 in the United Kingdom by TV broadcast medium, Scenario
Table 119: Changes in TV sector revenue up to 2015 in the United Kingdom by type of player, Scenario 2
Table 120: Changes in TV sector revenue up to 2015 in the United Kingdom by source of revenue, Scenario
Table 121: Changes in TV sector revenue up to 2015 in the United Kingdom by TV broadcast medium, Scenario
Table 122: Changes in TV sector revenue up to 2015 in the United Kingdom by type of player, Scenario 3
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