UAE Defence and Security Report Q1 2008
Published By: Business Monitor International
February 2008
R302-1326
Online Download $495.00
Description
Tension in the Gulf continued to rise in Q407 as a result of the face-off between the US and Iran over the
latter’s nuclear programme. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) faced the task of navigating a path between
its strategic ally, the US, and its close neighbour and trading partner, Iran. The Emirates also had to take
account of security scenarios in the immediate neighbourhood. According to the US Defence Security
Cooperation Agency (DSCA), in December 2007, weapons manufacturers Lockheed Martin and
Raytheon were working on an order worth up to US$9bn to supply the Patriot Advanced Capability-3
missile systems and associated equipment and services to the UAE. The Patriot system has been
promoted among US allies in the Gulf as a defensive shield in the context of a potential military
confrontation with nearby Tehran, which has been building up its arsenal of offensive missiles. DSCA
also named Raytheon as the main supplier of an additional US$1.36bn order for PAC-3 missiles, PAC-2
missile upgrades, and Patriot ground support equipment upgrades. Another manufacturer, Northrop
Grumman, was reported to be working on a US$437mn order to deliver upgrades and refurbishments of
E-2C aircraft for the UAE.
The UAE is arguably the most politically stable country in the Arab world. It is currently edging towards
reforms, largely at the behest of the US’ limited agenda to introduce popular participation in the Gulf
States, but these will be symbolic and will not cause any fundamental shifts in the power dynamics. The
UAE has few explicit security threats. However, its inauspicious geo-strategic location dictates a
permanent state of insecurity. Minor territorial disputes with Iran continue to put a low-level security
pressure on the Emirates, while instability in nearby Iraq and political uncertainties in the wider region
provide reason for caution. The security threats to the UAE in terms of insurgency and terrorism are thus
far not significant.
The UAE’s 10-year modernisation programme has created a military with the potential to challenge Iran
and Saudi Arabia for regional dominance. The confluence of strategic imperative and immediate wealth
contributed to the UAE’s establishment as a procurer, not a producer, of arms. The UAE lacks an
established local defence industry and its forces are almost entirely reliant upon foreign procurement,
training and expertise. The Offsets Group Programme mandates that foreign contractors establish joint
ventures with local firms, providing the opportunities for technology transfers and the establishment of
local maintenance and manufacturing facilities. A number of indigenous firms are however making
limited progress in strengthening their position within the industry. Strong support for advanced military
procurements and upgrades drive the industry for the medium term. Coming to the end of a 10-year
US$15bn defence modernisation programme, the UAE is the most rapidly developing military power in
the Gulf region, and engages in a brisk arms trade with a variety of international suppliers. Regional
security imperatives mean that the UAE is consistently looking to maintain its credible deterrent force by
importing the latest technologies. To dilute the potential political effect of heavy reliance of foreign arms
producers, the UAE consciously aims to diversify its suppliers among the four main global suppliers of
arms: the US, France, the UK and Russia. The UAE does not export arms to any significant degree.
It seems the Emirates have little to worry about for the time being - a stable political system, a strong
economy, limited security threats and a military with technology that can, in some aspects, rival the best
in the world.
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Table of Contents
- Executive Summary
- SWOT Analysis
- United Arab Emirates Political SWOT
- United Arab Emirates Security SWOT
- United Arab Emirates Defence Industry SWOT
- United Arab Emirates Economic SWOT
- United Arab Emirates Business Environment SWOT
- Political Overview
- Domestic Political Overview
- External Political Outlook
- Security Risk Analysis
- BMI’s Security Ratings
- Risk Ratings
- Table: Middle East & North Africa Defence & Security Ratings
- Table: Middle East & North Africa: State Terrorism Vulnerability Index
- Regional Security: The Middle East and North Africa
- Inter-State Conflicts
- Internal Conflicts
- UAE Conflict Risk
- UAE Terrorism Risk
- UAE Physical Safety Risk
- Security Risk Overview
- Internal Security Situation
- Historical Background
- External Security Situation
- Regional Security
- Military Structure & Defence Industry
- Armed Forces
- Table: Regional Armed Forces (including conscripted) 2007
- Current Strength
- Army
- Navy
- Air Force
- International Deployments
- Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Market Structure
- Arms Trade Overview
- Imports
- Exports
- Industry Trends & Developments
- Procurement Trends & Developments
- Procurement Background
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: UAE Defence Sector - Army Enlargements Historical Data & Forecasts
- Table: UAE Defence Sector - Defence Expenditure Historical Data & Forecasts
- Immediate Opportunities
- Key Risks to BMI’s Forecast Scenario
- Macroeconomic Forecast
- Table: United Arab Emirates - Economic Activity
- Company Profiles
- Abu Dhabi Ship Building (ADSB)
- BMI Forecast Modelling
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Defence Industry
- Sources
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