South Africa Telecommunications Report Q4 2008

South Africa Telecommunications Report Q4 2008

Published By: Business Monitor International
November 2008
R302-4663
Online Download $495.00

Description

South Africa’s mobile subscriber base grew by 4.8% in the first six months of 2008. Mobile penetration has now reached 95.9% and, as such, slow quarterly growth rates are to be expected. In Q208, South Africa’s leading mobile operator Vodacom reported much smaller gains than its main rivals - a mere 6.1% of total net additions. As a result of weak customer growth, Vodacom continued to lose market share to its main rivals, MTN and Cell C. Cell C appears to have been the real winner in terms of net additions in Q208. South Africa’s third largest mobile operator gained 490,000 customers in the three months ending June 2008.

Our new forecast for South Africa’s mobile market predicts that the customer base will increase by over 13% in 2008 and will surpass 50mn by the end of the year, giving a mobile penetration rate of just over 103%. Despite clear evidence that a definite slowdown is currently underway, it should be noted that the customer base continues to contain a reasonable number of inactive customers.

In addition to raising our expectations for mobile subscriber growth over the next five years, we have also upwardly revised our predictions for broadband growth. Our new broadband forecast for South Africa envisages the number of connections rising by over 44% in 2008, enabling penetration to reach 1.5% by the end of the year. In August 2008, private equity venture SEACOM announced that its undersea cable linking South Africa to Europe and Asia would be launched in June 2009; this development, along with the inauguration of several other undersea cables, is expected to help lower broadband costs over the next few years. Meanwhile, the proliferation of commercial WiMAX services offered by service providers other than the incumbent Telkom is also expected to lower service costs and increase the level of choice for customers. In July 2008, South Africa’s second national operator Neotel launched its first commercial WiMAX wireless broadband services, following the completion of service trials in Gauteng province. South Africa has dropped to third place in our latest set of business environments rankings for Africa.

Although previously ranked in first place, the recent ascendency of Botswana and Egypt has displaced South Africa from the top slot.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary: SWOT Analysis; South Africa Telecommunications Sector - SWOT; Business Environment Rankings; Africa; South Africa
Table: Africa Business Environment Rankings: Industry Forecast Scenario; Mobile
Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data & F 12: Fixed-Line
Table: Telecoms Sector - Fixed-Line - Historical Data & Forecasts: Internet
Table: Telecoms Sector - Internet - Historical Data & Forecasts: Market Data Analysis; Mobile
Table: South Africa Wireless Market, Q208
Table: Wireless Net Additions Market, Q2 2008: 3G; Fixed-Line
Table: Telkom Fixed Telephony Access Lines ('000): Internet
Table: Telkom Internet Customers ('000): Industry Developments; Mobile Data; Vodacom*; MTN*; Cell C; Virgin Mobile; Macroeconomic Climate
Table: South Africa - Economic Activity: Regulatory Environment; South Africa: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities; Legislation And Market Liberalisation; Regulatory Developments; Company Monitor
Table: Nokia Net Sales 2006-2007 (EURmn)
Table: Nokia Mobile Device Volume By Geographic Area (mn)
Table: Nokia Net Sales H107-H108 (EURmn): Selected Profiles - Operators; Telkom; Vodacom; Mobile Telephone Networks (MTN); Cell C; Competitive Landscape; Competitor Analysis
Table: Key Players: South Africa Telecoms Sector
Table: Selected Operators Financial Indicators: Key Players; Fixed-Line; Internet; Mobile; Glossary Of Terms; BMI Forecast Modelling; How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts; Telecommunications Industry; Sources

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