Colombia Food and Drink Report Q3 2009

Colombia Food and Drink Report Q3 2009

Published By: Business Monitor International
June 2009
R302-6610
Online Download $495.00

Description

BMI sees little chance of Colombia avoiding a recession in 2009 as the twin engines of growth in recentyears - private consumption and fixed investment - feel the brunt of collapsing consumer confidence, theglobal downturn and ongoing risk aversion. We are, therefore, forecasting that Colombia will experiencean economic contraction of 1.5% this year, the country’s first contraction since 1999, which compares togrowth of 3.4% in 2008 and 7.6% in 2007.

According to the country’s national statistics office, retail sales grew by just 0.5% in 2008, down fromgrowth of 11% in 2007, with growth well into negative territory in the latter stages of the year. This isclearly an ominous signal for the country’s retailers, and BMI is expecting total mass grocery retail salesto stagnate in 2009. Any increase in sales is likely to be driven by new store openings, rather than by asignificant increase in like-for-like sales.

Indeed, in the last quarter, the country’s two largest retailers have both announced plans to rein inexpansion over the course of this year. Almacenes Exito, which is a subsidiary of France-based Casino,has stated it will invest COP190bn (US$81.5mn) in 2009, down from COP500bn (US$214.7mn) in 2008.

Meanwhile, the Colombian unit of Carrefour has revealed it will invest EUR100mn (US$129.3mn) in2009, compared with EUR200mn (US$248.7mn) in 2008. However, strong growth is still expected infood consumption in Colombia over the next five years. By 2013, total food consumption is expected torise by 47.8% (nominal growth rate in local currency terms), stemming from a projected 36.5% increasein per-capita spending and an 8.3% increase in the size of the population. Using BMI forecasts for theCOP/US$ exchange rate, this translates into total food consumption growth of 107.9% in US dollar termsas the Colombian peso is forecast to strengthen considerably against the US dollar over the next fiveyears. This growth will be driven by increased demand for value-added and premium products for themost part.

Colombia is the world’s third-largest coffee producer. At the end of March, the National Federation ofCoffee Growers reported that Colombian coffee shortages will start to ease by August, with volumesnormalising by September as the mid-year crop from southern and northern regions is delivered.

Production was down 9% y-o-y in 2008, as a result of poor weather and high input prices associated withthe global commodities bubble. The federation said its 2009 first half crop would be around 4.5mn bags,down 1.5mn bags from a year earlier, but said strong recent flowering indicated a normal second half ofthe year. Production for 2009 is seen at more than 11mn 60-kilogram bags. Colombia is a major supplierof some of the best Arabica coffee in the world and hopes to increase production to 17mn bags by 2014,which, given the current economic climate, seems an overly ambitious target, particularly as the highdemandspeciality coffee sector, which is hoped will drive growth, is likely to be the worst affected interms of consumer demand.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary: SWOT Analysis; Colombia Food Industry SWOT; Colombia Drink Industry SWOT; Colombia Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT; Business Environment; Latin America Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings
Table: Latin America Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings Q3 2009: Colombia’s Food & Drink Business Environment Rating; Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Colombia - Economic Activity, 2005-2013: Food; Industry Forecast Scenario; Total Food Consumption; Colombia Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts; Trade; Food & Drink Trade Balance - Historical Data & Forecasts; Canned Food/Prepared Food; Canned Food Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2005-2013; Confectionery; Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2005-2013; Industry Developments; Market Overview; Overview of Sector; Confectionery; Dairy; Meat; Seafood; Drink; Industry Forecast Scenario; Hot Drinks
Table: Hot Drink Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2005-2013: Alcoholic Drinks
Table: Alcoholic Drink Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2005-2013: Soft Drinks
Table: Soft Drink Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts: Industry Developments; Market Overview; Hot Drinks; Soft Drinks And Bottled Water; Alcoholic Drinks; Mass Grocery Retail; Industry Forecast Scenario; Colombia Mass Grocery Retail - Value Sales by Format (US$bn) - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2005-2012
Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type (%): Industry Developments; Market Overview
Table: Structure Of Colombia's Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number Of Outlets
Table: Structure Of Colombia's Mass Grocery Retail Market - Sales By Format (US$bn)
Table: Average Annual Sales Value By Format (US$mn): Competitive Landscape; Key Players; Food And Drink
Table: Key Players in Colombia's Food & Drink Sector: Mass Grocery Retail
Table: Key Players in Colombia's Mass Grocery Retail Market: Company Analysis; Food; C.I. Union de Bananeros de Uraba, SA (Uniban); Alianza Team (Tecnologia Empresarial de Alimentos SA); Grupo Nacional de Chocolates; Drink; Postóbon; Grupo Empresarial Bavaria; Mass Grocery Retail; Almacenes Exito; Carrefour (Colombia); Olímpica; Appendix Commodity Price Forecasts; Corn
Table: Corn, 2005-2010: Soybean
Table: Soybean, 2005-2010: Rice
Table: Rice, 2005-2010: Wheat
Table: Wheat, 2005-2010: Cocoa
Table: Cocoa, 2005-2010: Coffee
Table: Coffee, 2005-2010: Milk
Table: Milk, 2005-2010: Sugar
Table: Sugar, 2005-2010: Country Snapshot: Colombia Demographic Data; Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030: Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012: Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings; Ratings Methodology; Ratings Overview; Ratings System; Indicators
Table: Limits Of Potential Returns
Table: Risks To Realisation Of Potential Returns: Weighting; Weighting; BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary; Food & Drink; Mass Grocery Retail; BMI Food & Drink Forecasting And Sourcing; How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts; Sourcing

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