Serbia Food and Drink Report Q3 2009

Serbia Food and Drink Report Q3 2009

Published By: Business Monitor International
June 2009
R302-6636
Online Download $495.00

Description

In BMI’s revised Food and Drink Business Environment Ratings (BER) regional matrix for Q309, Serbia no longer occupies the bottom place in the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) matrix. In fact, it is placed11th, out of 14 key markets in the region, above Bulgaria, as well as Latvia and Estonia, although thechange is due more to the considerable worsening of those countries’ scores, rather than an improvement of Serbia’s compound figure. In fact, Serbia is also expected to post growth contraction in the currentyear, which will - in addition to rising unemployment and a potentially explosive political situation with Kosovo - weigh down on the country’s food and drinks expenditure.

Indeed, we have revised down our Serbian growth forecast for 2009, and now project a 1.6% contraction(compared to our previous expectation of a 0.8% expansion). The amendment to our forecast is based onan expectation of a further slowdown in external demand and fall in capital inflows. A marginal recoveryof 1.2% growth is projected in 2010. However, we expect to see signs of a recovery in H210 and amarked improvement in 2011 - with growth forecast to rise to 3.5%. In the meantime, the country willcontinue to rely on IMF funding, having already secured an US$520mn Stand-By-Agreement (SBA), inorder to ensure stability and financing for the country amid the global economic crisis.

Nevertheless, there are positive developments within the food and beverages industry in Serbia. In April2009, Medela - a Serbian confectionery producer - announced plans to increase its production capacityby 50% in 2010, despite the current financial crisis. Similarly, Bambi Banat, one of the most prominentconfectionery manufacturers in Serbia, recently opened a new chocolate factory in Serbia. Around thesame time, Kosovo-based soft drinks manufacturer Bibita acquired a licence from the American juicemaker Tampico Beverages to manufacture and distribute juices under its brand. Tampico, the top-sellingrefrigerated juice brand in the US, is aiming to expand its currently limited presence in Europe, althoughBMI is cautioning that the unresolved political relationship between Kosovo, Serbia and the internationalcommunity will hamper faster export growth.

However, there is no doubt that the financial crisis is biting. For example, local brewer Beogradskaindustrija piva (BIP) reported that its investment in the construction of a new beer factory has beenpostponed. In fact, according to local press, scheduled foreign investment worth around EUR800mn(US$1bn) has been cancelled, in the face of continuing economic crisis. In the meantime, the RomaniabasedForeign Investors Council (FIC), an umbrella organisation for over 100 multinationals engaged invarious industrial activities, is predicting that foreign direct investment (FDI) into Serbia will be on holduntil Q309 at least, with companies expected to return to the country with the first signs of improvement.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary: SWOT Analysis; Serbia Food Industry SWOT; Serbia Drink Industry SWOT; Serbia Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT; CEE Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings
Table: Regional Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings: Serbia’s Food & Drink Business Environment Rating; Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Serbia - Economic Activity: Food; Industry Forecast Scenario; Food Consumption
Table: Serbia Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts: Confectionery
Table: Value Sales of Serbia's Confectionery (US$mn) - Historical Data & Forecasts: Canned Food
Table: Value/Volume Sales of Serbia's Canned Food - Historical Data & Forecasts: Trade
Table: Serbia Food & Drink Trade Indicators - Export, Import and Balance Value (US$mn) - Historical Data and Forecasts: Industry Developments; Market Overview; Food Consumption; Food Production; Leading Players; Confectionery; Canned Food; Trade; Agriculture; Sugar Production; Organic Agriculture; Drink; Industry Forecast; Alcoholic Drinks
Table: Serbia Alcoholic Drinks Sector - Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts: Soft Drinks
Table: Serbia Soft Drinks Sector - Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts: Hot Drinks
Table: Serbia Hot Drinks Sector - Value Sales (US$mn) - Historical Data & Forecasts: Industry Developments; Market Overview; Alcoholic Drinks; Beer; Spirits; Wine; Soft Drinks
Table: Serbia - Volume Consumption Of Soft Drinks By Category (mn litres)
Table: Serbia - Value Consumption Of Soft Drinks By Category (US$mn): Hot Drinks; Mass Grocery Retail; Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Serbia Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format (US$bn) - Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Serbia Grocery Retail Sales By Format (%) - Historical Data & Forecasts: Industry Developments; Market Overview; Leading Players
Table: Mercator - Private Label As % of Product Sales In Foreign Markets
Table: Structure Of Serbia's Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number Of Outlets
Table: Structure Of Serbia's Mass Grocery Retail Market - Sales Value By Retail Format (US$bn): Competitive Landscape; Key Players; Food & Drink
Table: Key Players in Serbia's Food & Drink Sector (2008): Mass Grocery Retail
Table: Key Players in Serbia's Mass Grocery Retail Sector (2008): Company Analysis; Food; Bambi; Mladost-Sid; Mondi Serbia; Drink; Coca-Cola / IBP Beograd AD; Carlsberg Serbia/Pivara Celarevo; Apatinska Pivara (InBev); Arteska International Company; BB Minaqua; Knjaz Milos; Agriculture; Sunoko; Mass Grocery Retail; Mercator; Veropoulos; Delta Holding; Metro; Appendix; Commodity Price Forecasts; Corn
Table: Corn, 2005-2010: Soybean
Table: Soybean, 2005-2010: Rice
Table: Rice, 2005-2010: Wheat
Table: Wheat, 2005-2010: Cocoa
Table: Cocoa, 2005-2010: Coffee
Table: Coffee, 2005-2010: Milk
Table: Milk, 2005-2010: Sugar
Table: Sugar, 2005-2010: Country Snapshot: Serbia Demographic Data; Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030: Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2000/01
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030: Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2000-2012: Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings; Ratings Methodology; Ratings Overview; Ratings System; Indicators
Table: Limits Of Potential Returns
Table: Risks To Realisation Of Potential Returns: Weighting
Table: Weighting: BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary; Food & Drink; Mass Grocery Retail; BMI Food & Drink Forecasting And Sourcing; How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts; Sourcing

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