The overwhelming successes of children’s book series in recent years such as Harry Potter, Captain Underpants and Stephenie Meyer’s Twilight have sent publishers scrambling to uncover the next multi-title blockbuster craze. In addition, bestselling individual titles of rapidly growing genres like graphic novels have illuminated the children’s book market as a lucrative space for publishers, editors, marketers, distributors and retailers in the trade book industry. What’s more, the nuances of children’s books compared to “young adult” titles needs to be better understood by everyone in the industry value chain.

Armed with an archive of trade book data that goes back more than 30 years, Simba’s team of seasoned trade book analysts examines the market for children’s books segment by segment, from youngsters to tweens to teens. In addition, Children’s Publishing Market Forecast 2010 provides high-quality, unbiased market intelligence on the publishing houses, and the entire retail landscape, from independent bookstores to online outlets to big box stores.

Gain access to exclusive statistics and analysis such as:

• An in-depth look at bestselling children’s books drawn from the USA Today, Publishers Weekly and New York Times lists, with breakdowns of top-performing titles, authors, imprints and a comprehensive category ranking of which books are selling and which are not.
• Expanded analysis of the most vital facet of children’s publishing: series books.
• Results from Simba’s surveys of independent retailers across the country rating different books and genres; as well as info on buyer profiles and behaviors.
• Exclusive five-year category trends for 15 major juvenile categories.

Children’s Publishing Market Forecast 2010 includes detailed strategic and financial profiles of companies such as Candlewick Press, Disney Publishing Worldwide, Hachette Book Group, HarperCollins, Holtzbrinck, Houghton Mifflin, Penguin Group, Random House, Scholastic and Simon & Schuster.

This report is a critical tool in evaluating growth potential, understanding trends affecting the industry, sizing up the competition, reviewing potential partner or acquisition profiles, examining market share rankings of leading publishers, benchmarking performance, and planning short- and long-term growth strategies.

Children’s Publishing Market Forecast 2010 is essential for publishing executives, M&A advisors, market analysts, and industry consultants who need to understand the business strategies driving the children’s trade book publishing industry today.

Table of Contents

Methodology

Executive Summary

Chapter 1: Overview of the U.S. Children’s Book Market and Buyer Demographics

Introduction

Who Are the Buyers?

Girls Are Still Reading More Than Boys

Table 1.1: Who Is Buying Most of the Children’s/YA Titles in Your Store?

Table 1.2: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Adults Who Have Purchased Children’s Books

Table 1.3: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Buyer Overview Spring 2007/Winter 2009

Table 1.4: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults) with No Children in Household vs. One or More

Table 1.5: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults) with One or More Children in Household

Table 1.6: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults) Buying Books as Gifts

Table 1.7: Describe the Gender Mix of Children’s/YA Book Buyers at Your Store 15

Chapter 2: Trends in Children’s Book Publishing

Introduction

Children’s/YA Business vs. Adult Trade: What’s Healthier?

Children and Young Adults Are Reading Less

The Role of the Internet, Electronic Components Still Evolving

Series Still Rising

Series Case Study: Harry Potter

Fewer Authors Responsible for More Books

Trade Paperback Still Gaining Favor

Motion Picture Tie-Ins

Retailers and Publishers Relationships and Influence Changing

Teen Book Market Growth Outpacing Young Children’s

Table 2.1: Growth of Juvenile Trade vs. Adult Trade

Table 2.2: Bookstores Compare the First-Half Performances of Adult Trade and Juvenile, 2009 vs. 2008

Table 2.3: Percentage of Children Who Read Almost Every Day for Fun

Table 2.4: Frequency with Which Children Read Books for Fun, by Age

Table 2.5: Frequency with Which Children Read Books for Fun

Table 2.6: Percentage of Children Who Read a Book the Previous Day

Table 2.7: Percentage of Time Spent Reading While Using Other Media

Table 2.8: Growth of Series in Title Output as a Percentage of Total Books Published, 2004-2009

Table 2.9: NYT/USA Today Children’s Bestsellers, July 2007-June 2008

Table 2.10: NYT/USA Today Children’s Bestsellers, July 2008-June 2009

Table 2.11: Scholastic Revenue, FY2000-2008

Table 2.12: Average Bestselling Titles per Author

Table 2.13: What Format of Children’s/YA Has Been a Particularly Strong Performer in the First Half of 2009 vs. 2008?

Table 2.14: What Format of Children’s/YA Has Been a Particularly Weak Performer in the First Half of 2009 vs. 2008?

Table 2.15: How Would You Rate the Following Formats of Children’s Books in Terms of How They Sell?

Table 2.16: Top 20 Books to Movies, 2002-2008

Table 2.17: Children’s Titles on Weekly Bestseller Lists (NYT, USA Today)

Table 2.18: When Looking at Children’s and Young Adult Titles Separately, How Would You Say Your Business Is Trending?

Table 2.19: What Age Range Are Your Most Successful Children’s/YA Titles Found?

Chapter 3: Leading Authors, Books and Imprints

Introduction

New York Times Series Bestsellers

USA Today Bestsellers

Bestselling Books

Bestselling Authors

Leading Imprints

Composite Analysis of USA Today and New York Times Lists

Bestselling Books

Bestselling Authors

Leading Imprints

Comparing Parent Publishers: Total Bestsellers and Weeks per Title

Table 3.1: No. of New Children’s/YA Titles Appearing on NYT & USA Today Bestseller Lists, July 2006-June 2009

Table 3.2: Top 20 New York Times Series, July 2008-June 2009

Table 3.3: Top 20 New York Times Series Authors, July 2008-June 2009

Table 3.4: Top New York Times Series Imprints, July 2008-June 2009

Table 3.5: Top 20 USA Today Bestsellers, July 2008-June 2009

Table 3.6: Top 20 USA Today Authors, July 2008-June 2009

Table 3.7: Top 20 USA Today Imprints, July 2008-June 2009

Table 3.8: Top 20 Authors, July 2008-June 2009

Table 3.9: Top 20 Authors, July 2007-June 2008

Table 3.10: Top 20 Imprints, July 2008-June 2009

Table 3.11: Leading Children’s Book Publishers, Two-Year Comparison, July 2007-June 2009

Table 3.12: Comparison of Publishers, July 2008-June 2009

Chapter 4: Market Sizing and Forecasts

Introduction

Leading Children’s Publishers

Candlewick

Disney Publishing Worldwide

Hachette/Little, Brown Books for Young Readers

HarperCollins

Houghton Mifflin Harcourt

Macmillan

Penguin Group (USA)

Random House

Scholastic

Simon & Schuster

Revenue Trends

Valuation Trends

Size of the Children’s Publishing Market

Leading Children’s Publishers by Revenue

First-Half Comparisons, 2008 vs. 2007

Forecast for Balance of 2009 and Beyond

Table 4.1: Harry Potter-Only Revenue, Scholastic

Table 4.2: Revenue Growth, Children’s Trade Book Market, 2007-2011P

Table 4.3: Leading Children’s Publishers, 2007-2011P

Table 4.4: AAP Results: Children’s/YA Category Net Sales

Table 4.5: AAP Results: Children’s/YA Category Returns

Chapter 5: Category Trends

Introduction

The Top Categories

USA Today Bestseller Data

Children’s Titles vs. All Titles Released

Children’s/YA Category Analysis

Action & Adventure

Animals

Family & Relationships

Fantasy

Graphic Novel

History

Horror

Horror & Ghost

Humor

People & Places

Religion

Schools & Education

Science Fiction

Social Issues

Social Science

Format Trends

Table 5.1: Leading Children’s Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2007-June 2008

Table 5.2: Leading Children’s Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2008-June 2009

Table 5.3: Leading USA Today Children’s Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2008-June 2009

Table 5.4: New Children’s/YA Titles vs. All New Titles Released, 2004-2008

Table 5.5: Select Category Ratings, Six-Year Overview

Table 5.6: Action & Adventure Bestseller Performance

Table 5.7: Vital Statistics - Action & Adventure

Table 5.8: Animals Bestseller Performance

Table 5.9: Vital Statistics - Animals

Table 5.10: Family & Relationships Bestseller Performance

Table 5.11: Vital Statistics - Family & Relationships

Table 5.12: Fantasy Bestseller Performance

Table 5.13: Vital Statistics - Fantasy

Table 5.14: Graphic Novel Bestseller Performance

Table 5.15: Vital Statistics - Graphic Novel

Table 5.16: History Bestseller Performance

Table 5.17: Vital Statistics - History

Table 5.18: Horror Bestseller Performance

Table 5.19: Vital Statistics - Horror

Table 5.20: Horror & Ghost Bestseller Performance

Table 5.21: Vital Statistics - Horror & Ghost

Table 5.22: Humor Bestseller Performance

Table 5.23: Vital Statistics - Humor

Table 5.24: People & Places Bestseller Performance

Table 5.25: Vital Statistics - People & Places

Table 5.26: Religion Bestseller Performance

Table 5.27: Vital Statistics - Religion

Table 5.28: Schools & Education Bestseller Performance

Table 5.29: Vital Statistics - Schools & Education

Table 5.30: Science Fiction Bestseller Performance

Table 5.31: Vital Statistics - Science Fiction

Table 5.32: Social Issues Bestseller Performance

Table 5.33: Vital Statistics - Social Issues

Table 5.34: Social Science Bestseller Performance

Table 5.35: Vital Statistics - Social Science

Table 5.36: Total Juvenile Hardcover Titles Published, 2003-2008

Table 5.37: Total Juvenile Softcover Titles Published, 2003-2008

Table 5.38: Class Share of E-Book Bestsellers, 2008-2009

Chapter 6: Distribution and Retail Sales

Introduction

Where Books Are Being Purchased

Children’s/YA Through the Lens of Bookstores

Mass Merchandisers and Children’s Book Retailing

Performance and Outlook of the Big Three Chains

Barnes & Noble

Borders Group

Books-A-Million

Profit Margins at the Big Three Chains

Superstores and Small Format Store Closings

Online Bookselling

Book Clubs, Fairs and Direct-to-Consumer Sales

Table 6.1: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Sales Channel Trends

Table 6.2: Number of Physical Stores, Big Three vs. Big Box

Table 6.3: What % of Your Business Is Comprised of Children’s/YA Sales?

Table 6.4: What % of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Buyers Bought Another Book at the Same Time?

Table 6.5: How Effective Are the Following Children’s/YA Promotional Efforts?

Table 6.6: Bestselling Children’s Books at Select Retail Store Web Sites, 2009

Table 6.7: Revenue Growth, Leading Bookstore Chains, Fiscal 2004-2008

Table 6.8: Growth in Superstore Sales, Major Retail Chains, 2004-2008

Table 6.9: Big Three Bookstore Chains Operating Performance, 2004-2008

Table 6.10: Number of Superstore Outlets, 2003-2008

Table 6.11: Revenue of Leading Online Booksellers, 2004-2008

Table 6.12: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Channel by Type of Book Buyer

Chapter 7: Forecasts and Conclusions

Conclusions

Other Recommendations

Table 7.1: Things Parents Have Done in Relation to Child’s Reading Habits

Table 7.2: Revenue Growth, Children’s Trade Book Market, 2006-2010P

Profiles of Leading Children’s Book Publishers

Candlewick Press

Disney Publishing Worldwide

Hachette Book Group

HarperCollins Publishers

Houghton Mifflin Harcourt

Macmillan

Penguin Group (USA)

Random House

Scholastic Corp.

Simon & Schuster