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Mobile Messaging & IP Evolution: Players, Strategies & Forecasts 2009-2014

Published By: Juniper Research Limited
April 2009
R399-243
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Description

This sizeable report investigates the future for the mobile messaging market, providing forecasting and analysis for both network-based services (SMS, MMS) and IP-based services (Mobile Email & Instant Messaging). The report includes a vital discussion about the shift in the mobile messaging dynamic, looking at how the social Web will drive evolution in the messaging world in combination with the emerging paradigm brought about by IP-based messaging services.

Key projections within a substantial forecasting suite include; total global revenues forecast by region and by product sector. Other forecasts include; mobile messaging user numbers and annual volumes of messaging by product, volumes of paid-for messages and total operator-billed revenues, and total mobile messaging advertising revenues.

This comprehensive strategic report explores a number of business models such as value-chain disruption, evolution of mobile networks and the emergence of mobile ad-funded tariffs, plus the various types of value-added services being developed to complement the growing number of messaging services available.

Key questions this report answers:
  • What is the market opportunity for mobile messaging services?
  • What are the factors driving market demand and evolution, and where are the various services being adopted?
  • How are services delivered and revenues derived?
  • Who comprises the value chain & what strategies are they adopting?
  • How do next-generation mobile messaging services, convergence and VAS impact current offerings?
  • Who uses mobile messaging services, and what are the various use case scenarios?
  • What are the enabling technologies and industry/standards developments?
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Types of Mobile Messaging
VAS & Voice, Video and Other Services
Market Evolution & Convergence
Mobile Messaging Market Opportunity
Mobile Messaging Challenges
Future Mobile Awards 2009
1. Challenges, Conclusions & Recommendations
1.1 Introduction
1.2 Challenges
1.3 Conclusions & Recommendations
2. Commercial Landscape for Mobile Messaging
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Mobile Messaging Market Overview
2.2.1 Mobile Messaging Market Definitions
i. Mobile Messaging Categories
ii. Mobile Messaging Experiences
Table 2.1: Synchronous and Asynchronous Messaging Types
iii. Motivation and Usage Scenarios
iv. Mobile Messaging Mechanisms
a. Conversation Thread
b. Converged Inbox
c. Emoticons
Figure 2.1: Examples of Emoticons
d. Predictive Text
e. Presence
f. Text Speak
2.2.2 Market Drivers
i. Bundled/Unlimited Tariffs
ii. Cultural Influences
iii. Prosumer
iv. Youth Market and Online Communities
Table 2.2: US Teens Communications Habits
2.3 Messaging Service Development
2.3.1 SMS
i. Background
ii. Adoption
iii. Commercial Options
a. Mobile-originated SMS
b. Mobile-terminated SMS
c. Premium-Rate SMS (PRSMS)
d. Expanding SMS Services
Figure 2.2: The SMS/MMS Market
i. Company Profile: Anam Mobile
a. Company Background
b. Products and Services
c. Strategy
ii. Company Profile: TeleMessage
a. Company Background
b. Products and Services
Figure 2.3: The TeleMessage Architecture
c. Case Study: AIS (Thailand)
2.3.2 MMS
i. Background
ii. Adoption
a. MDA (Mobile Data Association)
Table 2.4: Growth Of UK SMS and MMS Volumes, 2007-2008
iii. Commercial Options
Table 2.5: Retail Cost Per MMS ($), Forecast 2009-2014
a. MMS Postcard Service
i. Company Profile: Acision
a. Company Background
b. Products and Services
- Messaging
- Mobile Marketing
Figure 2.4: Acision’s Mobile Marketing Architecture
- Charging Solutions
2.3.3 Mobile Email
i. Background
Table 2.6: Mobile Email Challenges
ii. Adoption
iii. Commercial Options
Table 2.7: Cost Per Email Monthly Subscription ($), Forecasts 2009-2014
Figure 2.5: The Mobile Email Market
a. ASP/NOC
b. Behind the Firewall
c. Webmail
iv. Company Profile: SEVEN
a. Company Background
b. Products and Services
c. 3 UK
d. Telefonica
v. Company Profile: Visto
a. Company Background
b. Products and Services
Figure 2.6: Visto Mobile Platform Options
c. Strategy
2.3.4 Mobile IM
i. Background
a. AIM (AOL Instant Messenger)
b. Google Talk
c. Yahoo! Messenger
d. Windows Live Messenger
ii. Adoption
iii. Commercial Options
Figure 2.7: Mobile IM Market
Table 2.8: Cost per Monthly IM Subscription, Forecasts 2009-2014
iv. Company Profile: Orange France
b. Strategy
v. Company Profile: eBuddy
a. Company Background
b. Products and Services
c. Strategy
Table 2.10: eBuddy Users & Revenues by Region
3. Enterprise Mobile Messaging
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Market Overview
3.2.1 Background
3.2.2 Adoption
3.2.3 Commercial Options
i. Company Profile: iAnywhere (Sybase)
a. Company Background
b. Products and Services
- Afaria Mobile Management and Security Software
- iAnywhere Mobile Office
Figure 3.1: Mobile Inbox of the Future.
c. Strategy
3.3 SMS & MMS
i. PageOne
a. Company Background
Table 3.1: Revenue and Net Income Growth ($m) 2004-2008
b. Products and Services
Figure 3.2: PageOne’s Network-Independent Messaging Architecture
ii. Clickatell
a. Company Background
b. Products and Services
Table 3.2: Clickatell Messaging Pricing SMS-MT & SMS-MO - Germany
Figure 3.3: The Enterprise Messaging Gateway Value Chain
c. Strategy
3.4 Mobile Email
i. Company Profile: Isode
a. Company Background
b. Products and Services
Figure 3.4: Mobile Email Via IMAP-IDLE
c. Strategy
ii. Microsoft Windows Mobile
Table 3.3: Microsoft KPIs 2004-2008
a. Products and Services
b. Strategy
Figure 3.5: Exchange 2007 SP1 DM (Device Management)
c. Mobile Messaging with Exchange ActiveSync
- Exchange ActiveSync Protocol
- Direct Push
iii. Motorola Good
a. Company Background
b. Products and Services
Figure 3.6: Good Mobile Connection Overview
c. Strategy
iv. RIM (Research In Motion)
a. Company Background
Table 3.4: RIM KPIs Q3 2008 to Q3 2009
b. Products and Services
- NOC (Network Operations Centre)
- BlackBerry MDS (Mobile Data Service)
Figure 3.7: BlackBerry Mobile Data Service Architecture
- BES (BlackBerry Enterprise Server)
- BIS (BlackBerry Internet Service)
- BlackBerry Devices
- BlackBerry Connect
- BlackBerry Built-In
- BlackBerry Alliance Program
- BlackBerry Support Services
c. Strategy
Figure 3.8: RIM/BlackBerry Value Chain
- Bridging the Enterprise/Consumer Divide
3.5 Mobile IM
Figure 3.9: Mobile IM Enterprise Architecture
i. Company Profile: CallWave
a. Company Background
b. Products and Services
4. Business Models
4.1 Introduction
Figure 4.1: P2P Mobile Messaging Commercial Evolution
4.2 Mobile Messaging Value Chain
Figure 4.2: The Mobile Messaging Value Chain
4.2.1 Value Chain Members
i. Agency/SI
ii. Aggregators/Hubbing Providers
iii. ASP/ISV
iv. Brands
v. End User
vi. MNOs
vii. Vendors
4.2.2 Messaging Category Variations
4.2.3 Disruptive Models
i. On Portal vs Off Portal/Direct-to-Consumer (D2C)
a. On-Net Portal & ODP
b. Off-Portal
c. Traffic Trends
d. The Messaging ‘Longtail’
Figure 4.3: Operator Approaches To The Value Chain
ii. Mobile Email
a. Emerging Business Model Options
iii. Mobile IM
iv. Personal Instant Messaging Initiative (GSMA)
a. Strategy
b. Challenges
4.2.4 Messaging Billing Evolution
i. Company Profile: Patni Telecom Consulting
a. Company Background
b. Products and Services
4.3 Messaging Service Interconnection
4.3.1 Hubbing
Table 4.1: The Hubbing & Bi-Lateral Messaging Market by Region (Approx.)
i. Aggregators
ii. IPX
Figure 4.4: Cascading Interconnect Payments
Figure 4.5: The IPX Model
a. Company Background
b. Products and Services
c. Strategy
Figure 4.6: The mBlox Value Chain
d. Sender Pays Data Trial
4.4 Advertising and Mobile Messaging
Figure 4.7: Mobile Advertising Mediums
4.4.1 Mobile Advertising Market
4.4.2 Mobile Advertising Cost Models
i. CPC (Cost-per-Click)
ii. CPM (Cost-per-Mille)
iii. CPA (Cost-per-Action/Acquisition)
iv. CPL (Cost-per-Call)
4.4.3 Mobile Advertising Inventory
i. Text Messaging (SMS)
a. SMS Advertising Creative Technical Specifications
b. SMS Ad Units
ii. SMS Ad Functionality
iii. MMS
a. MMS Advertising Creative Technical Specifications
b. MMS Ad Units
iv. Mobile Web
a. Mobile Web Advertising Creative Technical Specifications
b. Mobile Web Ad Units
4.4.4 Delivery Mediums
i. CSC (Common Short Code)
ii. MMS
iii. SMS
iv. Viral Marketing
v. Profile: Mobile Marketing Association (MAA)
a. Mobile Marketing
b. Adoption
4.4.5 Mobile Ad-Funded Messaging Tariffs
i. Adoption
Figure 4.8: Out There Media - Number of Mobile Ad Campaigns
ii. Challenges & Drivers
Figure 4.9: Most Active Mobile Advertisers
iii. Company Profile: Amobee
a. Company Background
b. Products and Services
Table 4.2: Amobee Ad Pricing (West Europe & North America)
Figure 4.10: Amobee’s Unified Platform For Ad Management
c. Case Study: Orange Pilots In-SMS Ads Concept
Figure 4.11: P2P SMS On-Net Traffic Interception
d. Case Study: Frog2Frog Partnership for Mobile Messaging Advertising
e. Case Study: Vodafone Czech Republic Launches Mobile Advertising
Figure 4.12: SMS Gratis Message Flow & Ad Insertion
iv. Company Profile: Blyk
a. Company Background
5. Mobile Messaging Forecasts
5.1 Forecast Definitions & Methodology
5.1.1 Forecast Definitions
5.1.2 Forecast Methodology
Figure 5.1: Forecast Methodology
5.2 The Global Market for Mobile Messaging
5.2.1 Total Global Revenues For Mobile Messaging
Figure 5.2: Total Global Revenues for Mobile Messaging ($m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2007-
2014
Table 5.1: Total Global Revenues for Mobile Messaging ($m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-
2014
Figure 5.3: Total Global Revenues for Mobile Messaging, Split by Product (SMS, MMS, IM,
Email) ($m) 2007-2014
Table 5.2: Total Global Revenues for Mobile Messaging, Split by Product (SMS, MMS, IM,
Email) ($m) 2009-2014
5.3 SMS
5.3.1 SMS Subscribers
Figure 5.4: Number of Mobile Subscribers Using SMS (m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
Table 5.3: Number of Mobile Subscribers Using SMS (m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014 141
5.3.2 SMS Volumes
Figure 5.5: Total Annual SMS Volume (m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2007-2014
Table 5.4: Total Annual SMS Volume (m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
5.3.3 Volume of Paid-for SMS Messages
Figure 5.6: Total Volume of Paid-for SMS Messages (m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2007-2014 .. 142
Table 5.5: Total Volume of Paid-for SMS Messages (m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
5.3.4 Operator Billed SMS Revenues
Figure 5.7: Total Operator Billed SMS Revenues ($m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2007-2014
Table 5.6: Total Operator Billed SMS Revenues ($m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
5.3.5 SMS Based Advertising Revenues
Figure 5.8: SMS Based Advertising Revenues ($m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2007-2014
Table 5.7: SMS Based Advertising Revenues ($m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
5.4 MMS
5.4.1. MMS Subscribers
Figure 5.9: Number of Mobile Subscribers Using MMS (m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2007-2014
Table 5.8: Number of Mobile Subscribers Using MMS (m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
5.4.2. Volumes of Paid-for MMS Messages
Figure 5.10: Total Volume of Paid-for MMS (bn), Split by 8 Key Regions 2007-2014
Table 5.9: Total Volume of Paid-for MMS (bn), Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
5.4.3. Operator-billed MMs Revenues
Figure 5.11: Total Operator-Billed MMS Revenues ($m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2007-2014 . 147
Table 5.10: Total Operator-Billed MMS Revenues ($m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014 .. 148
5.4.4 Total Ad-funded MMS Volumes
Figure 5.12: Total Ad-funded MMS Traffic (m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2007-2014
Table 5.11: Total Ad-funded MMS Traffic (m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
5.4.5 MMS Based Advertising Revenues
Figure 5.13: MMS Based Advertising Revenues ($m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2007-2014
Table 5.12: MMS Based Advertising Revenues ($m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
5.5 Mobile Email
5.5.1 Subscribers Using Mobile Email
Figure 5.14: Number of Mobile Subscribers Using Email (m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2007-2014
Table 5.13: Number of Mobile Subscribers Using Email (m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
5.5.2 Total Operator-billed Email Revenues
Figure 5.15: Total Operator-Billed Email Revenues ($m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2007-2014 152
Table 5.14: Total Operator-Billed Email Revenues ($m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014 . 152
5.6 Mobile IM
5.6.1 Subscribers Using Mobile IM
Figure 5.16: Number of Mobile IM Users (m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2007-2014
Table 5.15: Number of Mobile IM Users (m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
5.6.2 Users Paying for Mobile IM
Figure 5.17: Number of Users Paying for Mobile IM (m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2007-2014 . 154
Table 5.16: Number of Users Paying for Mobile IM (m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014 .. 154
5.6.3 Operator-billed IM Revenues
Figure 5.18: Total Operator-Billed IM Revenues ($m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2007-2014
Table 5.17: Total Operator-Billed IM Revenues ($m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
5.6.4 Number of Ad-funded Mobile IM Subscribers
Figure 5.19: Total Number of Ad-funded Mobile IM Subscribers (m), Split by 8 Key Regions
2007-2014
Table 5.18: Total Number of Ad-funded Mobile IM Subscribers (m), Split by 8 Key Regions
2009-2014
Figure 5.20: Total Value of Mobile IM Ad-Spend ($m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2007-2014
Table 5.19: Total Value of Mobile IM Ad-Spend ($m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
6. Strategies
6.1 Introduction
6.2 Aggregators & Hubs
i. NeuStar
a. Company Background
Table 6.1: NeuStar Revenue and Net Income Growth 2003-2008 ($m)
b. Products and Services
Figure 6.1: NeuStar ICP Overview
c. Strategy
ii. Sybase 365
a. Company Background
Table 6.2: Sybase KPIs 2004-2008
b. Products and Services
Table 6.3: Sybase Messaging KPIs 2008 vs. 2007
c. Strategy
iii. Syniverse Technologies
a. Company Background
b. Products and Services
Figure 6.2: The NEXT Advanced Messaging Hub
Figure 6.3: Syniverse Revenue Growth 2003-2007 ($m)
iv. VeriSign
a. Company Background
b. Products and Services
c. Strategy
Table 6.4: VeriSign Estimated Revenues Generated for Customers in Q1 2007-Q4 2008
6.3 ASP/ISV
i. Danger
a. Company Background
b. Products and Services
Figure 6.4: T-Mobile’s Sidekick Slide
ii. MSN & Windows Live for Windows Mobile
a. Company Background
b. Products and Services
c. Strategy
iii. MXit
a. Company Background
b. Products and Services
c. Strategy
iv. IXI Mobile & Ogo
a. Company Background
b. Products and Services
Figure 6.5: Ogo Devices for Messaging and Web 2.0
c. Strategy
v. Tencent QQ
a. Company Background
Mobile Messaging & IP Evolution: Players, Strategies & Forecasts 2009-2014
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b. Strategy
6.4 Brands & Ad Networks
i. Fox Mobile Group
a. Company Background
b. Products and Services
ii. Out There Media
a. Company Background
b. Products and Services
Figure 6.6: Mobucks Mobile Advertising Marketplace Value Chain
c. Case Study: Tomato Plus!
Figure 6.7: Tomato Plus!/Blyk Subscriber Growth
6.5 MNOs
i. MTN (South Africa) & noknok
a. Company Background
b. Strategy
ii. O2 UK & Bluebook
a. Company Background
b. Strategy
Table 6.5: O2 UK - Typical Messaging Costs
Table 6.6: O2 UK KPIs Q1 2008 to Q4 2008
6.6 Vendors
i. Miyowa
a. Company Background
b. Products and Services
Figure 6.8: Miyowa Move Multimedia Platform Architecture
c. Strategy
ii. Nokia
a. Company Background
Table 6.7: Nokia KPIs - 2008 versus 2007
b. Products and Services
c. Strategy
e. Devices & Services
Figure 6.9: Nokia’s E66
iii. Cloudmark
a. Company Background
b. Products and Services
Figure 6.10: Cloudmark Technology and Global Threat Network
7. American & European Markets
7.1 North America
7.1.1 AT&T (US)
Table 7.1: AT&T KPIs (Revenues, Subscriptions & ARPU) Q4 2007 to Q4 2008
Table 7.2: AT&T - Typical Messaging Costs per Message (SMS, MMS, Email, IM & Voicemail)
7.1.2 Helio (US)
Figure 7.1: Helio’s Ocean Device
Table 7.3: Helio ‘A La Carte’ - Typical Messaging Costs per Message (SMS, MMS, Email, IM
& VVO)
7.1.3 Rogers Wireless (Canada)
Table 7.4: Rogers Wireless Text Messaging Bundles
Table 7.5: Rogers Wireless KPIs (Revenues, Subscriptions & ARPU) Q4 2007 to Q4 2008 .. 190
7.1.4 Virgin Mobile USA
Table 7.6: Virgin Mobile USA KPIs (Revenues, Subscriptions & ARPU) Q4 2007 to Q4 2008
Table 7.7: Virgin Mobile USA - Typical Messaging Costs per Message (SMS, MMS, Email, IM & Video)
7.2 South America
7.2.1 America Movil
Table 7.8: America Movil KPIs (Revenues & Subscriptions) Q4 2007 to Q4 2008
i. Mexico (Telcel)
Table 7.9: Telcel KPIs (Revenues, Subscriptions & ARPU) Q4 2007 to Q4 2008
Table 7.10: Telcel - Typical Messaging Costs per Message (SMS, MMS, Web to SMS, Mobile
Data & Voicemail)
ii. Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay (Claro)
Table 7.11: Claro (Argentina, Paraguay & Uruguay) KPIs (Revenues, Subscriptions & ARPU) Q4
2007 to Q4 2008
Table 7.12: Claro (Argentina) - Typical Messaging Costs per Message (SMS, MMS, Email, IM
& Voice Messaging)
iii. Brazil (Claro)
iv. Chile (Claro)
v. Colombia (CoMCEL)
vi. Ecuador (Porta)
vii. Peru (Claro)
viii. Central America (Claro)
ix. Caribbean (Claro)
x. United States (TRACFONE)
7.2.2 ENTEL (Chile)
Table 7.13: Entel PCS KPIs (Revenues, Subscriptions & ARPU) Q4 2007 to Q4 2008
Table 7.14: ENTEL - Typical Messaging Costs per Message (SMS, MMS, Email, Mobile Data,
IM & SMS Messenger)
7.2.3 Telefónica LatinoAmérica
Table 7.15: Telefónica LatinoAmérica KPIs (Revenues & Subscriptions) Q4 2007 to Q4 2008
i. Telefónica Móviles Chile (Movistar)
Table 7.16: Telefonica Moviles Chile KPIs (Revenues & Subscriptions) Q4 2007 to Q4 2008
Table 7.17: Telefonica Chile - Typical Messaging Costs per Message (SMS, MMS, Email, IM,
Mobile Data, Voicemail & Voice Messaging)
ii. Vivo (Brazil)
Table 7.18: Vivo KPIs (Revenues, Subscriptions, ARPU & Market Share) Q4 2007 to Q4 2008
Table 7.19: Vivo - Typical Messaging Costs per Message (SMS, MMS, Email, IM & Data) .. 199
7.3 Western Europe
7.3.1 Vodafone
Table 7.20: Vodafone Group KPIs (Revenues & Subscriptions) for Six Months Ended September 30, 2008
Table 7.21: Vodafone Group (Europe) KPIs (Revenues & Subscriptions) for Six Months
Ended September 30, 2008
Table 7.22: Vodafone Group (Rest of World) KPIs (Revenues & Subscriptions) for Six
Months Ended September 30, 2008
i. Vodafone Germany
Table 7.23: Vodafone Germany - Typical Messaging Costs per Message (SMS, MMS, Email,
IM & Visual Mailbox)
ii. Portugal
Table 7.24: Vodafone Portugal - Typical Messaging Costs per Message (SMS, MMS, Email &
IM)
iii. Spain
iv. UK
7.3.2 Telefónica Móviles España SA (Telefonica Movistar - Spain)
Table 7.25: Telefónica Móviles España KPIs (Revenues & Subscriptions) Q4 2007 to Q4 2008
Figure 7.2: Telefónica Móviles España Mobile IM Screenshot
Table 7.26: Telefonica Movistar (Spain) - Typical Messaging Costs per Message (SMS, MMS,
Email, & IM)
7.3.3 Telefónica Europe
i. Telefónica O2 UK
Table 7.27: Telefónica UK KPIs (Revenues, Subscriptions & ARPU) Q4 2007 to Q4 2008
Mobile Messaging & IP Evolution: Players, Strategies & Forecasts 2009-2014
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Table 7.28: O2 UK - Typical Messaging Costs per Message (SMS, MMS, Email, IM &
Voicemail)
ii. Telefónica O2 Germany
Table 7.29: Telefónica O2 Germany KPIs (Revenues, Subscriptions & ARPU) Q4 2007 to Q4 2008
iii. Telefónica O2 Ireland
Table 7.30: Telefónica O2 Ireland KPIs (Revenues, Subscriptions & ARPU) Q4 2007 to Q4 2008
iv. Telefónica O2 Czech Republic
Table 7.31: Telefónica O2 Czech Republic KPIs (Revenues, Subscriptions & ARPU) Q4 2007 to Q4 2008
Table 7.32: Telefónica O2 Czech Republic - Typical Messaging Costs per Message (SMS,MMS, Email, IM & Voicemail)
7.4 Eastern Europe
7.4.1 mobilkom austria group
Table 7.33: mobilkom austria group KPIs (Revenues, Operating Income & Subscriptions) Q4 2008 and Q4 2007 y-o-y Comparison
i. mobilkom austria
Table 7.34: mobilkom austria KPIs (Revenues, Subscriptions & ARPU) Q4 2008 and Q4 2007
y-o-y Comparison
Table 7.35: mobilkom austria - Typical Messaging Costs per Message (SMS, MMS, Email & IM)
ii. Vipnet
Table 7.36: Vipnet KPIs (Revenues, Operating Income, Subscriptions, ARPU & Market Share)
Q4 2008 and y-o-y Comparison
Table 7.37: Vipnet - Typical Messaging Costs per Message (SMS, MMS, Email, Data &
Voicemail)
7.4.2 VimpelCom Group - Beeline (Russia & CIS)
Table 7.38: VimpelCom Mobile KPIs (Revenues, Subscriptions, ARPU & Market Share)
(Russia) Q3 2007 to Q3 2008
Table 7.39: VimpelCom (Russia - Moscow) - Typical Messaging Costs per Message (SMS, MMS, IM & Voice Messaging)
7.4.3 Turkcell
Table 7.40: Turkcell KPIs (Revenues, Subscriptions & ARPU) Q3 2007, Q2 2008, Q3 2008, Q4 2008
Table 7.41: Turkcell - Typical Messaging Costs per Message (SMS, MMS, Email, IM & Voice SMS)
8. Asian & African Markets
8.1 China & Far East
8.1.1 China Mobile
Table 8.1: China Mobile KPIs (Revenues, Subscriptions, ARPU & Traffic), 2007-2008
Table 8.2: China Mobile - Typical Messaging Costs per Message (SMS, MMS, GPRS, Email,
IM, Voice & PIM)
8.1.2 China Unicom
Table 8.3: China Unicom (GSM) KPIs (Revenues, Subscriptions & ARPU), 2007-2008
Table 8.4: China Unicom - Typical Messaging Costs per Message (SMS & MMS)
8.1.3 NTT DoCoMo (Japan)
Figure 8.1: Aggregate ARPU by Japanese Operator
Figure 8.2: Packet ARPU by Japanese Operator
Table 8.5: NTT DoCoMo Wireless KPIs (Revenues, Subscriptions, ARPU & Market Share) Q3
2007 (December 2007) to Q3 2008 (December 2008)
Table 8.6: NTT DoCoMo - Typical Messaging Costs per Message (SMS, Email, Mobile Data
& Chaku-moji)
8.1.4 KTF (South Korea)
Table 8.7: KTF KPIs (Revenues, Subscriptions, ARPU, Data Usage &Messaging) Q4 2007 to
Q4 2008
Mobile Messaging & IP Evolution: Players, Strategies & Forecasts 2009-2014
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Table 8.8: KTF - Typical Messaging Costs per Message (SMS, MMS, Email, & Mobile Data)
8.2 Indian Sub Continent
8.2.1 Bharti Airtel
Table 8.9: Bharti Airtel KPIs (Revenues, Subscriptions, ARPU & Market Share) Q4 2007 to Q4
2008
Table 8.10: Bharti Airtel - Typical Messaging Costs per Message (SMS, MMS, Email, IM, &
Voice)
8.2.2 Reliance Mobile
Table 8.11: Reliance Mobile KPIs (Revenues, Subscriptions, ARPU & Market Share) December
2007 to December 2008
Table 8.12: Reliance Mobile - Typical Messaging Costs per Message (SMS, MMS, Email,
Alerts, IM, Talking Message & Voicemail)
8.2.3 Telenor Pakistan
Table 8.13: Telenor Pakistan KPIs (Revenues, Subscriptions & ARPU) Q4 2007 to Q4 2008.
Table 8.14: Telenor Pakistan Data Packages
Table 8.15: ‘SMS fulltime’ Tariffs
Table 8.16: Telenor Pakistan - Typical Messaging Costs per Message (SMS, MMS, Alerts,
Email, Bubble Message & Backup)
8.3 Rest of Asia
8.3.1 3 (Australia)
Table 8.17: 3 (Australia) KPIs (Revenues, Subscriptions & ARPU) Half Year and y-o-y
Comparison
Table 8.18: 3 (Australia) - Typical Messaging Costs per Message (SMS, Email, Mobile Data,
IM, Video & Voicemail)
8.3.2 DiGi (Malaysia)
Table 8.19: DiGi KPIs (Revenues, Subscriptions, Mobile Data & ARPU) Q4 2007 to Q4 2008
Table 8.20: DiGi - Typical Messaging Costs per Message (SMS, MMS, Email, IM, BubbleTalk
& Mobile Data)
8.3.3 Globe Telecom (Philippines)
Table 8.21: Globe KPIs (Revenues, Subscriptions, Mobile Data & ARPU), 2007-2008
Table 8.22: Globe - Typical Messaging Costs per Message (SMS, MMS, Email, Mobile Data &
IM)
8.3.4 Telstra Mobile (Australia)
Table 8.23: Telstra (Australia) KPIs ((Revenues, Subscribers & ARPU) Full Year Results and yo-
y Comparison
Table 8.24: Telstra - Typical Messaging Costs per Message (SMS, MMS, Email, & IM)
8.4 Africa & Middle East
8.4.1 etisalat
Table 8.25: Etisalat - Typical Messaging Costs per Message (SMS, MMS, Email & Data)
8.4.2 Vodacom (South Africa)
Table 8.26: Vodacom KPIs (Revenues, Subscriptions, ARPU & Market Share) Six Months Ended
September 30 2008 and y-o-y Comparison
i. Mobile Email
a. Mobile IM
ii. SVS (Short Voice Service)
iii. Voicemail2SMS
Table 8.27: Vodacom South Africa - Typical Messaging Costs per Message (SMS, MMS,
Email, IM, Voicemail & SVS)
8.4.3 Zain
Table 8.28: Zain Group KPIs (Revenues & Subscriptions), 2007-2008
i. Jordan
Table 8.29: Zain (Jordan) KPIs (Revenues, Subscriptions, ARPU & Market Share), 2007-2008
Table 8.30: Zain (Jordan) - Typical Messaging Costs per Message (SMS, MMS, Email &
Mobile Data)
ii. Kenya
Table 8.31: Zain (Kenya) KPIs (Revenues, Subscriptions, ARPU & Market Share), 2007-2008
Table 8.32: Zain (Kenya) - Typical Messaging Costs per Message (SMS, MMS, Email &
Mobile Data)
iii. Nigeria
Table 8.33: Zain (Nigeria) KPIs (Revenues, Subscriptions, ARPU & Market Share), 2007-2008
Table 8.34: Zain (Nigeria) - Typical Messaging Costs per Message (SMS, MMS, Email & Mobile Data)
iv. Uganda
Table 8.35: Zain (Uganda) - KPIs (Revenues, Subscriptions, ARPU & Market Share), 2007-2008
Table 8.36: Zain (Uganda) - Typical Messaging Costs per Message (SMS & Voicemail)
9. Mobile Messaging Value Added Services
9.1 Introduction
9.2 Voice
9.2.1 Voice Messaging/Voice SMS
i. Background
ii. Adoption
iii. Commercial Options
9.2.2 Voice Messaging Providers
i. Bubble Motion
a. Company Background
b. Products and Services
c. Strategy
Figure 9.1: BubbleTALK Deployment Options
ii. Kirusa
a. Company Background
b. Products and Services
iii. SpinVox
a. Company Background
b. Products and Services
c. Strategy
9.2.3 Visual Voicemail
i. Background
Figure 9.2: Visual Voicemail User Interface
ii. Adoption
Figure 9.3: Visual Voicemail Delivered to TV Screen
iii. Company Profile: Comverse
a. Company Background
b. Products and Services
9.3 Video
9.3.1 Videomail
i. Background
ii. Adoption
iii. Commercial Options
a. Video Colour Ring Back Tones
b. Video Caller ID
iv. Company Profile: Dialogic
a. Company Background
b. Products and Services
Figure 9.4: Dialogic’s Portflio
9.4 Other
9.4.1 Address Book
i. Address Book & Presence
ii. Address Book ‘Favourites’ List
Figure 9.5: On-Device Client Providing Converged Favourites List
iii. Network Backup & Storage
iv. Company Profile: NewBay Software
a. Company Background
b. Products and Services
Figure 9.6: NewBay’s LifeCache ‘Model for Innovation and Delivery’
9.4.2 Media Translation
9.4.3 PIM
10. Mobile Messaging, Convergence & IP
10.1 Introduction
10.2 Convergence and IP
10.2.1 Legacy Mobile Infrastructures
i. Circuit-Switching vs. Packet Switching
ii. SS7 Signalling
iii. IN (Intelligent Network)
10.2.2 Paths to IP
i. Migration Drivers
Figure 10.1: An IP-Based Messaging Architecture
ii. IP Efficiencies
iii. Messaging 2.0
iv. IMS & SDP
10.2.3 Vendor Profiles
i. Airwide Solutions
a. Company Background
b. Products and Services
Figure 10.2: Airwide Solutions’ Fusion - A Next-Generation Messaging Architecture
ii. Bharti Telesoft
a. Company Background
b. Products and Services
c. Strategy
iii. Ericsson
a. Company Background
b. Products and Services
iv. Nokia Siemens Networks
a. Company Background
Table 10.1: Nokia Siemens Networks - Revenue and Net Income Growth 2007-2008 ($m)
b. Products and Services
c. Strategy
10.3 Converging Communities
10.3.1 Social Media & Web 2.0
Figure 10.3: Social Networking On Mobile
i. In Mail & Public Messaging
ii. Facebook
a. Company Background
b. Services and Products - Fixed Internet
c. Mobile Services
iii. MySpace
a. Company Background
b. Products and Services
- MySpace Mobile
iv. Twitter
10.3.2 IM and the Interactive Communication Landscape
Figure 10.4: The Interactive Communication Market
i. Bots
ii. Company Profile: Colibria
a. Company Background
b. Products and Services
Figure 10.5: The Colibria Elevate Platform
c. Strategy
10.3.3 Messaging to Blend Fixed & Mobile Web?
10.3.4 VoIP Communities
i. Company Profile: fring
a. Company Background
b. Products and Services
Figure 10.6: The fring Value Chain
c. Strategy
d. Case Study: mobilkom’s A1 & fring
Figure 10.7: The fring Mobile Client
ii. Company Profile: Skype
a. Company Background
b. Products and Services
iii. Company Profile: Vyke
a. Company Background
b. Products and Services
c. Strategy
11. Industry Bodies and Developments
11.1 Introduction
11.2 Industry Bodies
11.2.1 3GPP
i. IP-Multimedia Subsystem (IMS)
Figure 11.1: IMS Architecture Overview
ii. MMTel
Figure 11.2: MMTEL Interworking Overview
11.2.2 Fixed-Mobile Convergence Alliance
Figure 11.3: FMCA Objectives
11.2.3 GSM Association (GSMA)
i. IP Interworking
a. GRX
Figure 11.4: The GRX Architecture
b. IPX
Figure 11.5: The IPX Architecture
ii. Open Connectivity Programme
a. SMS Hubbing
iii. PathFinder
iv. Voice Messaging Service Definition
Table 11.1: Voice Messaging Functions
Figure 11.6: Distributed Interworking Method for Voice Messaging Service
10.2.4 Open Mobile Terminal Platform (OMTP)
Figure 11.7: OMTP Focus
i. BONDI Initiative
11.2.5 RTT Alliance
11.3 Wireless Web Developments
11.3.1 IETF (Internet Engineering Task Force)
i. ENUM
ii. LEMONADE (licence to enhanced mobile oriented and diverse endpoints)
iii. Real-Time Text over IP (ToIP)
iv. SIP (Session Initiation Protocol)
v. SIP-SIMPLE (SIP for Instant Messaging and Presence Leveraging Extensions)
a. Optimisations
b. Instant Messaging
c. IM Chat Rooms
d. IM Features
vi. XMPP (Extensible Messaging and Presence Protocol)
11.3.2 XMPP Standards Foundation (XSF)
11.3.3 OMA (WAP 2.0 & IMPS v.1.3)
i. Converged IP Messaging (CPM)
Figure 11.8: Converged IP Messaging
ii. OMA Browsing
iii. OMA-CP (Client Provisioning)
iv. OMA-EMN (Email Notification)
v. OMA MEM (Mobile E-Mail)
vi. OMA MMS 1.3
vii. OMA Presence SIMPLE V2.0
viii. OMA Push V2.2
ix. OMA SIMPLE IM V1.0
a. Deferred Messaging
x. WAP 2.0
a. WAE (Wireless Application Environment)
b. Introduction of Internet Protocols
c. WAP Programming Model
d. Enhanced Services
xi. IMPS V.1.3 (Instant Messaging and Presence Service)
Figure 11.9: OMA’s IMPS Architecture
xii. OMA DS (Data Synchronization)
xiii. XDM
11.3.4 Web Services
i. REST (REpresentational State Transfer)
ii. SOAP (Simple Object Access Protocol)
11.3.5 W3C and the Mobile Web Initiative (MWI)
Appendix: Mobile Messaging Technologies
1 Introduction
2 Core P2P Mobile Messaging Services
2.1 SMS (Short Message Service)
i. SMS Architecture
Figure A1: SMS Architecture
ii. SMS Standards & Protocols
iii. SMS Interworking
2.2 Enhanced Messaging - EMS & RCS
i. Rich Communication Suite (RCS) Initiative
Figure A2: The Objectives of RCS
2.3 MMS
i. MMS Architecture
Figure A3: MMS Architecture
Table A1: Supporting non-MMS Phone Access
ii. MMS Standards & Protocols
iii. MMS Interworking
Figure A4: The SMTP Design Structure
2.4 Mobile Email
Figure A5: Email Architecture
Table A2: Common Email Approaches
i. Mobile Email Architectures
Figure A6: Pull and Push Technology
ii. Mobile Email Standards
2.5 Mobile IM & Presence
i. Mobile IM (Web-Based)
ii. SMS+/SMS 2.0/Super SMS (On-Net)
2.6 Messaging Gateway and Routers
i. Messaging Gateways
List of Forecasts
All forecasts are for 2009-2014, except where noted below.
Regional forecasts cover 8 regions: North America, South America, Western Europe, Eastern Europe, Far East
& China, Indian Sub Continent, Rest of Asia Pacific, Africa & Middle East.
Mobile Messenging
Total Global Revenues for Mobile Messaging ($m), Split by 8 Key Regions
Total Global Revenues for Mobile Messaging ($m), Split by Product (SMS, MMS, IM, Email)
SMS
Number of Mobile Subscribers Using SMS (m), Split by 8 Key Regions
Total Annual SMS Volume (m), Split by 8 Key Regions
Total Volume of Paid-for SMS Messages (m), Split by 8 Key Regions
Total Operator Billed SMS Revenues ($m), Split by 8 Key Regions
SMS Based Advertising Revenues ($m), Split by 8 Key Regions
Retail Cost per SMS (by Region) 2008-2013
MMS
Number of Mobile Subscribers Using MMS (m), Split by 8 Key Regions
Total Volume of Paid-for MMS (bn), Split by 8 Key Regions
Total Operator-Billed MMS Revenues ($m), Split by 8 Key Regions
Total Ad-funded MMS Traffic (m), Split by 8 Key Regions
MMS Based Advertising Revenues ($m), Split by 8 Key Regions
Email
Number of Mobile Subscribers Using Email (m), Split by 8 Key Regions
Total Operator-Billed Email Revenues ($m), Split by 8 Key Regions
Number of Mobile IM Users (m), Split by 8 Key Regions
Cost Per Email Monthly Subscription ($)
Instant Messaging
Number of Users Paying for Mobile IM (m), Split by 8 Key Regions
Total Operator-Billed IM Revenues ($m), Split by 8 Key Regions
Total Number of Ad-funded Mobile IM Subscribers (m), Split by 8 Key Regions
Total Value of Mobile IM Ad-Spend ($m), Split by 8 Key Regions
Cost per Monthly IM Subscription
Mobile Messaging & IP Evolution: Players, Strategies & Forecasts
Juniper Research Ltd +44 (0)1256 830002 www.juniperresearch.com
Historical Data Points
KPIs by Region
All KPIs are for Q4 2007 to Q4 2008 unless stated below.
North America
AT&T KPIs (Revenues, Subscriptions & ARPU)
Rogers Wireless KPIs (Revenues, Subscriptions & ARPU)
Virgin Mobile USA KPIs (Revenues, Subscriptions & ARPU)
South America
America Movil KPIs (Revenues & Subscriptions)
Telcel KPIs (Revenues, Subscriptions & ARPU)
Claro (Argentina, Paraguay & Uruguay) KPIs (Revenues, Subscriptions & ARPU)
Entel PCS KPIs (Revenues, Subscriptions & ARPU)
Telefónica LatinoAmérica KPIs (Revenues & Subscriptions)
Telefonica Moviles Chile KPIs (Revenues & Subscriptions)
Vivo KPIs (Revenues, Subscriptions, ARPU & Market Share)
Western Europe
Vodafone Group KPIs (Revenues & Subscriptions) for Six Months Ended September 30, 2008
Vodafone Group (Europe) KPIs (Revenues & Subscriptions) for Six Months Ended September 30, 2008
Vodafone Group (Rest of World) KPIs (Revenues & Subscriptions) for Six Months Ended September 30, 2008
Telefónica O2 Germany KPIs (Revenues, Subscriptions & ARPU)
Telefónica O2 Ireland KPIs (Revenues, Subscriptions & ARPU)
Telefónica O2 Czech Republic KPIs (Revenues, Subscriptions & ARPU)
Eastern Europe
mobilkom austria group KPIs (Revenues, Operating Income & Subscriptions) Q4 2008 and Q4 2007 y-o-y
Comparison
mobilkom austria KPIs (Revenues, Subscriptions & ARPU) Q4 2008 and Q4 2007 y-o-y Comparison
Telefónica Móviles España KPIs (Revenues & Subscriptions)
Telefónica UK KPIs (Revenues, Subscriptions & ARPU) Q4 2007 to Q4 2008
Vipnet KPIs (Revenues, Operating Income, Subscriptions, ARPU & Market Share) Q4 2008 and y-o-y
Comparison
VimpelCom Mobile KPIs (Revenues, Subscriptions, ARPU & Market Share) (Russia) Q3 2007 to Q3 2008
Turkcell KPIs (Revenues, Subscriptions & ARPU) Q3 2007, Q2 2008, Q3 2008, Q4 2008
China & Far East
China Mobile KPIs (Revenues, Subscriptions, ARPU & Traffic), 2007-2008
China Unicom (GSM) KPIs (Revenues, Subscriptions & ARPU), 2007-2008
NTT DoCoMo Wireless KPIs (Revenues, Subscriptions, ARPU & Market Share) Q3 2007 (December 2007) to
Q3 2008 (December 2008)
KTF KPIs (Revenues, Subscriptions, ARPU, Data Usage &Messaging)
Bharti Airtel KPIs (Revenues, Subscriptions, ARPU & Market Share)
Reliance Mobile KPIs (Revenues, Subscriptions, ARPU & Market Share) December 2007 to December 2008
Mobile Messaging & IP Evolution: Players, Strategies & Forecasts
Juniper Research Ltd +44 (0)1256 830002 www.juniperresearch.com
Telenor Pakistan KPIs (Revenues, Subscriptions & ARPU)
Globe KPIs (Revenues, Subscriptions, Mobile Data & ARPU)
Rest of Asia
3 (Australia) KPIs (Revenues, Subscriptions & ARPU) Half Year and y-o-y Comparison
DiGi KPIs (Revenues, Subscriptions, Mobile Data & ARPU)
Telstra (Australia) KPIs ((Revenues, Subscribers & ARPU) Full Year Results and y-o-y Comparison
Vodacom KPIs (Revenues, Subscriptions, ARPU & Market Share) Six Months Ended September 30 2008 and
y-o-y Comparison
Zain Group KPIs (Revenues & Subscriptions), 2007-2008
Zain (Jordan) KPIs (Revenues, Subscriptions, ARPU & Market Share), 2007-2008
Zain (Kenya) KPIs (Revenues, Subscriptions, ARPU & Market Share), 2007-2008
Zain (Nigeria) KPIs (Revenues, Subscriptions, ARPU & Market Share), 2007-2008
Zain (Uganda) KPIs (Revenues, Subscriptions, ARPU & Market Share), 2007-2008
Typical Messaging Costs per Message
VVO = Voice, Video & Other, IM = Instant Messaging, SVS + Short Verse Service.
North America
AT&T - Typical Messaging Costs per Message (SMS, MMS, Email, IM & Voicemail)
Helio ‘A La Carte’ - Typical Messaging Costs per Message (SMS, MMS, Email, IM & VVO)
Virgin Mobile USA - Typical Messaging Costs per Message (SMS, MMS, Email, IM & Video)
South America
Telcel - Typical Messaging Costs per Message (SMS, MMS, Web to SMS, Mobile Data & Voicemail)
Claro (Argentina) - Typical Messaging Costs per Message (SMS, MMS, Email, IM & Voice Messaging)
ENTEL - Typical Messaging Costs per Message (SMS, MMS, Email, Mobile Data, IM & SMS Messenger)
Telefonica Chile - Typical Messaging Costs per Message (SMS, MMS, Email, IM, Mobile Data, Voicemail & Voice
Messaging)
Vivo - Typical Messaging Costs per Message (SMS, MMS, Email, IM & Data)
Western Europe
Vodafone Germany - Typical Messaging Costs per Message (SMS, MMS, Email, IM & Visual Mailbox)
Vodafone Portugal - Typical Messaging Costs per Message (SMS, MMS, Email & IM)
Telefonica Movistar (Spain) - Typical Messaging Costs per Message (SMS, MMS, Email, & IM)
O2 UK - Typical Messaging Costs per Message (SMS, MMS, Email, IM & Voicemail)
Telefónica O2 Czech Republic - Typical Messaging Costs per Message (SMS, MMS, Email, IM & Voicemail)Eastern Europe
mobilkom austria - Typical Messaging Costs per Message (SMS, MMS, Email & IM)
Vipnet - Typical Messaging Costs per Message (SMS, MMS, Email, Data & Voicemail)
VimpelCom (Russia - Moscow) - Typical Messaging Costs per Message (SMS, MMS, IM & Voice Messaging)
Turkcell - Typical Messaging Costs per Message (SMS, MMS, Email, IM & Voice SMS)
China & Far East
China Mobile - Typical Messaging Costs per Message (SMS, MMS, GPRS, Email, IM, Voice & PIM)
Mobile Messaging & IP Evolution: Players, Strategies & Forecasts
Juniper Research Ltd +44 (0)1256 830002 www.juniperresearch.com
China Unicom - Typical Messaging Costs per Message (SMS & MMS)
NTT DoCoMo - Typical Messaging Costs per Message (SMS, Email, Mobile Data & Chaku-moji)
KTF - Typical Messaging Costs per Message (SMS, MMS, Email, & Mobile Data)
Bharti Airtel - Typical Messaging Costs per Message (SMS, MMS, Email, IM, & Voice)
Reliance Mobile - Typical Messaging Costs per Message (SMS, MMS, Email, Alerts, IM, Talking Message & Voicemail)
Telenor Pakistan - Typical Messaging Costs per Message (SMS, MMS, Alerts, Email, Bubble Message & Backup)Rest of Asia
3 (Australia) - Typical Messaging Costs per Message (SMS, Email, Mobile Data, IM, Video & Voicemail)
DiGi - Typical Messaging Costs per Message (SMS, MMS, Email, IM, BubbleTalk & Mobile Data)
Globe - Typical Messaging Costs per Message (SMS, MMS, Email, Mobile Data & IM)
Telstra - Typical Messaging Costs per Message (SMS, MMS, Email, & IM)
Etisalat - Typical Messaging Costs per Message (SMS, MMS, Email & Data)
Vodacom South Africa - Typical Messaging Costs per Message (SMS, MMS, Email, IM, Voicemail & SVS)
Zain (Jordan) - Typical Messaging Costs per Message (SMS, MMS, Email & Mobile Data)
Zain (Kenya) - Typical Messaging Costs per Message (SMS, MMS, Email & Mobile Data)
Zain (Nigeria) - Typical Messaging Costs per Message (SMS, MMS, Email & Mobile Data)
Zain (Uganda) - Typical Messaging Costs per Message (SMS & Voicemail)
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