Emerging Business Models in Voice: the impact of Skype and other private VoIP applications
Published By: Analysys Mason
September 2004
R51-177
PDF Format (Up to 5 Users) via Email, Minimum 1 Business Day $999.60
Description
Price reduced due to age.
The launch of Skype's free telephony software download in August 2003 caught the industry's imagination as it rapidly overtook more established VoIP players to attain subscriber figures never before seen in this emerging segment. The software, initially offered to the users of KaZaA's file sharing network, spread through word-of-mouth, with no traditional marketing, to claim over 7 million users in August 2004. Several copycat services have been launched this year, all offering free on-net calls within their closed user groups and offering optional extras including voicemail, conferencing and termination services to the PSTN. These all have minimal network infrastructure, relying as they do on 'peer-to-peer' topologies to support the services. These private VoIP applications (PVAs) highlight the susceptibility of traditional voice service providers, both fixed and mobile, to new business models made possible by widespread broadband access.
This report assesses the potential impact on the Western European voice market of these PVAs. It evaluates the underlying business models and quantifies their short-term impact on the core businesses of both fixed and mobile service providers. The longer-term potential for a 'critical-mass effect' of PVA users giving rise to a new market structure is also explored and the possible scale of its impact is determined. The report explains how existing service providers can protect their revenues, and evaluates the strategic alternatives available to market participants.
Emerging Business Models in Voice: the impact of Skype and other private VoIP applications answers your key questions:
- What are the existing business models in the market and how are they likely to evolve?
- What are the factors required to trigger a 'critical-mass effect'?
- How much do traditional operators stand to lose?
- Who could take advantage of the new business models, and how?
- How should traditional operators respond to this threat?
Who should read this report?
- Mainstream fixed voice operators: understand the threat posed by the emerging business models, assess the scale of the potential impact and develop counter-strategies to minimise the danger
- Internet Service Providers: understand where the main opportunities lie in terms of market segments, business models and distribution strategies for the launch of voice services
- Specialist VoIP providers: identify the main opportunities and develop longer-term market strategies
- Mobile network operators: understand the potential impact on mobile usage and revenues
- Equipment vendors: understand the market drivers and identify new opportunities
|
Table of Contents
0 Summary
1 Voice markets face increasingly severe fragmentation
1.1 Voice markets are fragmenting under different technologies and competition
1.2 Private VoIP applications are a new and potentially strong force for fragmentation
1.3 A critical mass of PVA users could overthrow existing market structures
2 PVAs are gaining acceptance in the market
2.1 PVAs have a strong heritage as Internet applications
2.2 A PVA bandwagon is rolling
2.3 But other players are contesting PVAs' potential market
3 PVA business models are uncertain
3.1 The voice market is vulnerable to segment targeting
3.2 Potential opportunities exist for new PVA players
3.3 But there is no single killer PVA business model
3.4 PVA players must adapt and evolve
4 A PVA critical-mass effect is possible
4.1 Market evolution could create the conditions for a PVA critical-mass effect
4.2 The potential impact of PVAs can be estimated
4.3 PVA adoption and usage could grow fast
4.4 Potential critical-mass impacts are significant
5 PVAs hasten the long-term restructuring of the voice market
5.1 PVAs could lead to a new market structure and value chains
5.2 There are key general impacts from the introduction of PVAs
5.3 Impacts will vary among different types of existing player
5.4 Fixed-line incumbents should consider two key strategic responses
Actions
List of figures and tables
Figure 2.1: Active users of Skype's and Vonage's VoBB services, January to August 2004
Table 2.1: Examples of private VoIP applications
Table 2.2: VoBB PSTN emulation services
Table 2.3: Telco/ISPs' competing VoBB services
Figure 3.1: Rate of growth in fixed traffic, mobile traffic, PSTN connections and active mobile subscriptions in larger Western European countries, 2002–3
Table 3.1: Key attributes for potential PVA players in selected industry segments
Figure 4.1: Key assumptions and inputs for PVA impact model
Figure 4.2: Numbers of potential PVA users in Western Europe, categorised into super, average and low users
Figure 4.3: Potential PVA revenues in Western Europe
Figure 4.4: Potential numbers of PVA users in Western Europe switching allegiance to VoIP and cancelling or downgrading PSTN subscriptions
Figure 4.5: Potential revenue losses to incumbent PSTN providers in Western Europe caused by PVAs
Figure 4.6: Potential proportion of total residential PSTN market lost to PVAs in Western Europe
Figure 5.1: Voice in a future PVA-impacted market
Figure 5.2: Fragmentation of voice usage across fixed and mobile markets |
Order Form * Please reference product number R51-177 when ordering or inquiring.
MindBranch, Inc.,
131 Ashland St., Suite 200 North Adams, MA 01247
tel: 800-774-4410
fax: +1-413-664-9791
www.mindbranch.com
|
