Though the market for chef-and restaurant-branded food products in the U.S. grew at an annual rate of eight percent between 2004 and 2008 in dollar sales, in unit terms growth was much less exciting. And for 2009, a new era may be beginning. For food marketers the prospects of changing market dynamics due to shifting consumer preferences, economic worries and a New Frugality may be challenging but can also be viewed as providing new and exciting opportunities.

MarketTrend: The U.S. Market for Chef- and Foodservice-branded Food Sold at Retail examines these issues and many others by looking at the current market, trends, major brands, and consumer preferences. The report presents concise, thought-provoking analyses of various aspects of the industry and provides a forecast for the market through 2013.

Methodology

The report uses data from IRI, which tracks sales through mass retail channels (except Wal-Mart) and Product Launch Analytics, a service of Datamonitor, which provides data on new product introductions. Other research data were gathered from trade associations, business journals, financial reports and brand literature, and from the Internet for other useful information on the topic.

Where possible, discussion in terms of unit sales has been included to provide a picture of “real” growth. Sales for all of 2008 were estimated by Packaged Facts based on sales through September 2008 or in some cases through part of November 2008.

About the Author

Cogitamus Consulting is a branding and market research boutique in NYC that's all about hard work, imagination and common sense. Working with our clients, we custom tailor solutions and provide creative, thought-provoking analysis that address the most pertinent questions facing marketers, through general business consulting, white papers, and branded product concept and strategy development.

Chapter 1: Executive Summary

Scope

Chef Brands

Restaurant Brands

Categories

Items Omitted

Methodology

Market Size and Growth

Chef/Foodservice Food Products Top $3.7 Billion

Figure 1-1: U.S. Chef- and Foodservice-Branded Food Products Market, 2004-2008 (in billions $)

Market Forecast

Market to Reach $4.4 Billion by 2013

Figure 1-2: U.S. Chef- and Restaurant-Branded Food Products Market Forecast, 2008-2013 (in billions $)

Brand Activity

Brand Activity Overview: Casual Dining Dominates

Table 1-1: Top 20 IRI-Tracked Chef and Foodservice Brands, 2004-2008 (in millions $)

Consumer Trends

Food Products Market Landscape

The Power of a Name

Chef-Brands May Benefit More than Foodservice

Eating Patterns Shifting

Cooking Ingredients and Kitchen Staples Important Again

Ethnic Food is Growing

Diverse America Has Diverse Tastes

Smaller Households Positive for Market

Consumer Health Concerns Paramount

What about Convenience?

Company Ethics and Added Values Important to Consumers

Consumers See Benefits of Social Responsibility

New Product Introduction Trends

Changing American Taste Buds

New Product Introductions Drop 38% in 2008

Sauces, Dressings & Condiments See Most Introductions

New Product Claims: Solidify Premium & Convenience Positions

Emerging Benefit Areas: Health and Sustainability

What’s Next in Flavor?

Ever-Growing World of Super Foods and Flavors

Meal Kit Concept Sees Constant Stream of Introductions

Empty Nesters Targeted

Add-ins Help Consumer Make it Fresher

Looking Ahead

Positive Marketing Karma in Appropriate and Authentic Licenses

Celebrity Chefs Keep Personal Brands Fresh with Cookbook Offerings

Many Top Chain Restaurants Not in Retail Market

Table 1-2: Restaurants and Institutions Top 400 Rankings: Top 20 Family Dining and Top 20 Casual Dining, 2008

Do Not Disengage from Loyal Consumers

Target Younger Shoppers Now for Long Term

Make Use of Alternative Medias

Product Placement Opportunities Abound

Certain Purchases Outside of Branded More Likely

Chapter 2: Market Trends

Scope

Chef Brands

Restaurant Brands

Categories

Items Omitted

Methodology

Food Products Market Landscape

Consumer Health Concerns Paramount

Eating Patterns Shifting

Ethnic Food is Growing

An Opportunity Ready to Eat

Market Size and Growth

Chef/Foodservice Food Products Top $3.7 Billion

Figure 2-1: U.S. Chef- and Foodservice-Branded Food Products Market, 2004-2008 (in billions $)

Table 2-1: U.S. Chef- and Foodservice-Branded Food Products Market Year-over-Year Percentage Change, 2004-2008 (in millions $)

Foodservice Products Garner Lion’s Share of Market

Figure 2-2: Dollar Share of U.S. Chef- and Foodservice-Branded Food Products by Brand Type, 2008 (%)

IRI-Tracked Sales Account for 54% of Market

Dinners and Entrées More than Half of IRI-Tracked Sales

Table 2-2: IRI-Tracked Dollar Sales of U.S. Chef- and Foodservice-Branded Food Products by Category, 2004-2008 (in millions $)

Condiments, Sauces and Seasonings Market Saturated

Figure 2-3: Share of IRI-Tracked Dollar Sales of U.S. Chef- and Foodservice-Branded Food Products, by Category, 2008 (%)

Side Dishes Grow 8%

Bob Evans: The King of Breakfast

Table 2-3: IRI-Tracked Unit Sales of U.S. Chef- and Foodservice-Branded Food Products by Category, 2004-2008 (unites, in millions)

Soup Growth Cooling

Frozen Desserts Getting Hot

Figure 2-4: Share of IRI-Tracked Unit Sales of U.S. Chef- and Foodservice-Branded Food Products, by Category, 2008 (%)

Top 20 Products

Marie Callender’s Leads

California Pizza Kitchen Posts Strong Growth

Ken’s Steak House Salad Dressing Growth Slows

Boston Market Serves Up Savory Sales

Other Notable Products

Table 2-4: Top 20 IRI-Tracked Dollar Sales of U.S. Chef- and Restaurant-Branded Food Products, 2004-2008 (in millions $)

Table 2-5: Top 20 IRI-Tracked Unit Sales of U.S. Chef- and Restaurant-Branded Food Products, 2004-2008 (in millions units)

Market Forecast

Market to Reach $4.4 Billion by 2013

Figure 2-5: U.S. Chef- and Restaurant-Branded Food Products Market Forecast, 2008-2013 (in billions $)

Economy, Shifting Consumer Buying Habits to Cause Decline in 2009

Table 2-6: U.S. Chef- and Restaurant-Branded Food Products Market Forecast Year-over-Year Percentage Change, 2008-2013 (in millions $)

Chapter 3: Brand Activity

Brand Activity Overview: Casual Dining Dominates

Fast Food Reigns in Mid-Tier

Chefs and Restaurateurs Operate Below $50 Million Mark

Family Friendly Foods of Marie Callender’s and Bob Evan’s Top Out

Table 3-1: Top 20 IRI-Tracked Chef and Foodservice Brands (in millions $)

Fine Dining Not to Be Left Out

Figure 3-1: Top 20 Chef and Foodservice Brands in Retail, U.S. by IRI-Tracked Dollar Sales, 2008 (%)

Chef Brands Carve a Niche

Old School Classics, Nathans and White Castle Have Good Showing

Selected Chef Brand Profiles

Emeril’s

Overview

Performance

Table 3-2: IRI-Tracked Dollar Sales of Emeril’s-Branded Food Products, 2004-2008 (in thousands $)

Table 3-3: IRI-Tracked Unit Sales of Emeril’s-Branded Food Products, 2004-2008 (in thousands units)

Selected New Product Introductions

Table 3-4: Selected Emeril’s Branded New Product Introductions, 2004-2008

Paula Deen

Overview

Performance

Table 3-5: IRI-Tracked Dollar Sales of Paula Deen-Food Products, 2007-2008 (in thousands $)

Table 3-6: IRI-Tracked Unit Sales of Paula Deen-Food Products, 2007-2008 (in thousands units)

Selected New Product Introductions

Table 3-7: Selected Paula Deen Branded New Product Introductions, 2004-2008

Wolfgang Puck

Overview

Performance

Table 3-8: IRI-Tracked Dollar Sales of Wolfgang Puck-Branded Food Products, 2004-2008 (in thousands $)

Table 3-9: IRI-Tracked Unit Sales of Wolfgang Puck-Branded Food Products, 2004-2008 (in thousands units)

Selected New Product Introductions

Table 3-10: Selected Wolfgang Puck’s Branded New Product Introductions, 2004-2008

Selected Foodservice Brand Profiles

Boston Market

Overview

Performance

Table 3-11: IRI-Tracked Dollar Sales of Boston Market-Branded Food Products, 2004-2008 (in thousands $)

Table 3-12: IRI-Tracked Unit Sales of Boston Market-Branded Food Products, 2004-2008 (in thousands units)

Selected New Product Introductions

Table 3-13: Selected Boston Market Branded New Product Introductions, 2004-2008

Margaritaville

Overview

Performance

Table 3-14: IRI-Tracked Dollar Sales of Margaritaville-Branded Food Products, 2004-2008 (in thousands $)

Table 3-15: IRI-Tracked Unit Sales of Margaritaville-Branded Food Products, 2004-2008 (in thousands units)

Selected New Product Introductions

Table 3-16: Selected Margaritaville Branded New Product Introductions, 2004-2008

Taco Bell

Overview

Performance

Table 3-17: IRI-Tracked Dollar Sales of Taco Bell Food Products, 2004-2008 (in thousands $)

Table 3-18: IRI-Tracked Unit Sales of Taco Bell Food Products, 2004-2008 (in thousands units)

Selected New Product Introductions

Table 3-19: Selected Taco Bell Branded New Product Introductions, 2004-2008

Chapter 4: Consumer Trends

The Power of a Name

Sauces to Saucepans Get the Brand Treatment

Is the Party Over?

Chef-Brands May Benefit, Foodservice May Suffer

Consumer Behavior Shifts

Shift in Consumer Psychology

Consumers Get Thrifty: Cook in More, Dine Out Less

Cooking at Home More Could Be Longer Term Trend

Celebrity Chefs Making It Easier

Cooking Ingredients and Kitchen Staples Important Again

Chef, Foodservice Brands Show Mixed Signals

Frozen Foods, The Bastion of Foodservice Branding May Suffer

The Recession Is an Opportunity

Determining Value Key for Consumer

Consumers More Informed Than Ever

Internet the New Value Tool

Table 4-1: Statements Indicating Consumer Role as Researcher, Fact-Finder, Planner, Spring 2008 (index)

Diverse America Has Diverse Tastes

Hispanic, Asian and Multi-Racial to Drive Population Growth

Table 4-2: U.S. Population Estimate and Projections by Race, 2007-2020 (in thousands persons)

Food Business Responds to Consumer Interest in Ethnic Flavors

Interest in a Variety of Cuisines Growing

Table 4-3: Popular Ethnic Food Categories by Number of Recipes on Popular Consumer Websites, FoodNetwork.com, 2006 versus 2008

Smaller Households Positive for Market

Table 4-4: U.S. Households by Number of Persons in Household, 2003-2007 (in millions)

America’s More Healthful Lifestyle

Ingredients, Portion Control Lead Concerns

Dieting No Longer about Weight

What about Convenience?

Can Health, Convenience, and Thrift Co-exist?

Consumer Food Fears

Company Ethics and Added Values Important to Consumers

Good Causes a Good Draw

New York’s Tavern on the Green Embraces a Cause

Consistency May Be the Best Policy

Consumers See Benefits of Social Responsibility

Consumers Sought More Organic Foods, Marketers Respond

Social Responsibility Goes Mainstream

Environmental Benefits May Lead

In Bad Economy Consumers Less Committed

Chapter 5: New Product Introduction Trends

Changing American Taste Buds

New Product Introductions Drop 38% in 2008

Table 5-1: Estimated Number of Chef- and Foodservice-Branded Introductions, U.S., 2004-2008*

Sauces, Dressings & Condiments See Most Introductions

Figure 5-1: Share of Chef- and Foodservice-Branded Introductions by Segment, U.S., 2004-2008 (percent)

New Product Claims: Solidify Premium & Convenience Positions

Opportunity in Other Emerging Benefit Areas, Especially Health and Sustainability

Table 5-2: Total New Food Introduction Tags, 2004 & 2008 versus 2004-2008 Chef- and Foodservice-Brand Tags

New Product Flavors: Trend Toward Savory and Spicey but Not Exotic

Table 5-3: Top 20 Chef- and Foodservice-Branded Flavors, 2004-2008

What Comes After Chinese, Italian and Mexican?

Table 5-4: Non-traditional Ethnic Foods Consumption by Age, Percent Consuming Twice a Month or More, 2007

Mapping a Food Trend

Ever-Growing World of Flavors

Super Foods Still Getting Good Press

Super Foods in Chef and Restaurant Introductions

Table 5-5: Selected Foods Deemed Super

Meal Kit Concept Sees Constant Stream of Introductions

Empty Nesters Targeted

Add-ins Help Consumer Make it Fresher

Some Brands Busier with Introductions Than Others

Table 5-6: Selected List of New Product Introductions, 2004-2008

Chapter 6: Looking Ahead

Positive Marketing Karma in Appropriate and Authentic Licenses

Restaurant Names, Licensing and Diet Tie-Ins

Celebrity Chefs Keeping Personal Brands Fresh with Cookbook Offerings

Table 6-1: Selected List from Top 100 Chef Cook Book Titles on barnesandnoble.com, March 2009

Chef Versus Personality

Top Restaurant Cook Books Highlight Opportunity in Healthier and High End Products

Table 6-2: Selected List from Top 100 Restaurant Cook Book Titles on barnesandnoble.com, March 2009

Many Top Chain Restaurants Already in Retail Market

Table 6-3: Restaurants and Institutions Top 400 Rankings: Top 20 Family Dining, 2008

Table 6-4: Restaurants and Institutions Top 400 Rankings: Top 20 Casual Dining, 2008

Less Activity in Sandwich, Café, Mexican, Seafood and Burgers

Table 6-5: Restaurants and Institutions Top 400 Rankings: Top 20

Sandwich/Bakery-Café, 2008

Table 6-6: Restaurants and Institutions Top 400 Rankings: Top 20 Mexican, 2008

Table 6-7: Restaurants and Institutions Top 400 Rankings: Top 15 Seafood, 2008

Table 6-8: Restaurants and Institutions Top 400 Rankings: Top 20 Burgers, 2008

Do Not Disengage from Loyal Consumers

Target Younger Shoppers Now for Long Term

Take Marketing to Virtual Heights

Make Use of Alternative Medias

Behavioral Targeting in Diverse and Fragmented Market

Product Placement Opportunities Abound

Certain Purchases Outside of Branded More Likely

Couponing Coming Back Strong

Appendix: Addresses of Selected Marketers