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Commercial Geostationary Satellite Transponder Market in North America - Growth Opportunities in a Mature Market

Product Type: Market Research Report
Published by: Frost & Sullivan
Published: December 2003
Product Code: R1-2537
Description
Excess Capacity and Competition from Terrestrial Networks Narrows Market Opportunities for Satellite Operators

North American satellite service providers are facing declining revenues as the vast build-up of transponder capacity - an outcome of highly optimistic market forecasts - remains unused in many primary markets. The migration of broadcasting from analog to digital signals has increased satellite efficiency in terms of content broadcast per transponder, which is reducing the demand for new capacity. Besides, intense competition is likely from the terrestrial networks in point-to-point applications such as corporate networking that holds huge growth potential. These developments are compelling satellite operators to seek effective ways to compete with terrestrial networks. They are adopting a 'wait-and-watch' approach and are extremely careful in adding further capacity to different frequencies - particularly to C-band - that already have high fill rates.

This research presents a comprehensive study of the North American commercial, geostationary satellite transponder market. It gauges both supply and demand for transponder capacity (C, Ku, and Ka frequency bands) that are leased by third parties for use in several applications such as video broadcast, telephony, Internet trunking, and networking. This is supported by an in-depth analysis of competition and market share as well as qualitative discussions on the regulatory environment and operating strategies.

Satellites - the Best Bet for Providing Seamless Point-to-Multipoint Applications

Video broadcast drives the North American satellites market, occupying more than 60 percent of the total transponders in the region. "Video, one of the key point-to-multipoint applications, is the backbone for transponder demand in this region, and satellites are unbeatable in this aspect," says the analyst. Unlike the terrestrial technologies, satellites do not incur additional costs for addressing each new user once the point-to-multipoint applications system is operational. This innate strength is providing a distinct competitive advantage to satellite systems, which simply cannot be replicated by terrestrial means. Market participants are working toward developing hybrid systems to leverage the strengths of both these technologies and thereby, increase market penetration.

Demand from the Government and Military Sectors Drive Market Growth

Consumer demand for commercial communications satellite capacity has dwindled in recent times. However, demand from the government and military sectors has increased dramatically, accounting for nearly 10 percent of the revenues of major satellite service providers. This is only expected to increase further and market participants have created new divisions to target these verticals and offer specific products and services.

"Satellite operators have enjoyed success so far since the military had chosen to use commercial capacity," says the analyst. "Future market success depends on the military's willingness to continue its reliance on commercial satellites rather than dedicated (military-owned) ones." Another critical factor will be the strategies of the Pentagon pertaining to global dispersion of troops and resource consolidation. Dispersion of troops is likely to boost commercial leasing whereas resource consolidation - Pentagon's strategy since World War II - is likely to choke growth. Besides these, military's choice between using several frequency bands and consolidating on one (or few) frequency bands for satellite transmission is likely to play a key role in the selection of satellite service providers.

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

      1. Report Overview for the Commercial Satellite Transponder Markets in

          North America

           1. Introduction to the North American Satellite Capacity Market

           2. Applications for the Commercial Satellite Transponder Capacity Market

           3. Competitive Analysis of Satellite Operators Serving North America

      2. Research Findings for the North American Transponder Markets

           1. Market Opportunities and Forecasts

           2. Strategic Recommendations for the North American Satellite Transponder

               Markets



2. North American Markets for Satellite Transponder Capacity

      1. Markets for Commercial Geostationary Satellite Services

           1. Market Overview and Definitions

           2. Definition of Satellite Applications

           3. Challenges Facing the North American Commercial GEO Satellite Transponder

               Market

               a. Competition from Terrestrial Networks Narrows the Addressable Market to Be

                  Tapped by Satellites

               b. One Technology Trend and One Business Trend are Highlighting the Problem

                  of Over Capacity

               c. The Need for Bundled Applications in a Private Satellite Network Presents

                  Technological and Cost Concerns

               d. The Demand for Interoperability with Terrestrial Networks Requires

                  Participants to Address Further Technological and Regulatory Issues

               e. Advances in Digitization and Compression Puts in Jeopardy Growth in Video

                  Broadcast Applications

               f. Satellite Operators are Faced With a Struggle to Convert the Potential of

                  Ka-band Into a Viable and Profitable Business Endeavor

           4. Market Drivers

               a. Satellites Have Wide Area Coverage That Cannot be Replicated By

                  Terrestrial Technologies

               b. Point-to-Multipoint Applications are Most Efficiently Provided Using Satellites

               c. Demand for Networking Services Offers High Potential Growth Rates for

                  Satellite Operators

               d. Decreasing Transponder Lease Price and Increased Capacity Expands the

                  Transponder Market

               e. U.S. Government Need for Reliable and Secure Bandwidth is Likely to Increase

                  Demand for Commercial Capacity

               f. Satellite and Terrestrial Technologies can be Advantageously Combined to

                  Increase Market Penetration

               g. Growing Consumer Interest in Foreign Programming Should Lead to More Video

                  Content Transmitted Over Satellites

               h. Increasing Number of Long Distance Telephony Minutes Should Impact

                  Satellite Transponder Demand Positively

               i. Growth in HDTV is Very Important for Increasing Transponder Usage

               j. High Personal Computer Penetration and Internet Use in North American Markets

                  Should Lead to an Increase in Satellite Broadband Services

           5. Market Restraints

               a. Competition from Terrestrial Wireline and Wireless Technologies Limits

                   Market Penetration

               b. Launch Failures and Risks Associated with Satellite Deployment Threaten to

                   Keep Pushing Insurance Costs Up

               c. Improvement in Compression Technologies Limits Growth in Demand for

                   Transponder Capacity

               d. Physical Disadvantages Such as Rain Attenuation and Propagation Delay

                   are Technological Hurdles Constantly Faced by Satellite Operators

               e. Low Awareness of Satellite Communications' Benefits Checks Uptake by New

                   End Users

               f. Low Acceptance of New Technologies and Applications Limits Promise of New

                  Growth Opportunities

               g. Migration of Military Communications to Higher Frequency Bands Should

                   Decrease Demand for Commercial Capacity

               h. The Threats from MEO and LEO Satellite Systems Could Reduce Growth Rates

      2. North America Transponder and Revenue Forecast

           1. Market Engineering Measurement Analysis for North America

           2. Transponder and Revenue Forecasts for the North American Market

           3. Demand Analysis for Satellite Applications in North America

           4. Pricing Trends and Forecast for Transponders in North America

           5. Intelsat's Bid for Loral Skynet

      3. Strategic Reccomendations

           1. Applications

           2. Ka-Band

           3. Government and Military Market



3. Satellite Technology & Regulations and Operators Serving North America

      1. Satellite Services and the Competitive Structure of the Market

           1. Communication Satellite Technology Overview

           2. Strengths and Weaknesses of Commercial Satellites

           3. Regulatory Overview for the Satellite Services Market in North America

           4. Competitive Structure of Operators Serving North America

           5. Market Share Analysis for Leased Capacity in North America

      2. 2003 Frost & Sullivan Awards - North America

           1. Frost & Sullivan Awards for the North America Commercial Geostationary

               Satellite Transponder Market

           2. Award Category: Market Leadership

           3. Award Category: Regional Satellite Operator







   List Of Figures



Chapter 1



Satellite Operators with Coverage in North America (North America), 2003

Nahuelsat's Fleet, Launch Date, EoL, Orbital Location, and TPE's by Frequency Band (World), 2003

Total Leased Transponders and Total Revenues (North America), 1999-2009

Total Transponder Supply and Total Leased Transponders (North America), 1999-2009



Chapter 2



Commercial Geostationary Satellite Transponder Market: Impact of the Top Six Industry Challenges (North America), 2002-2009

Commercial Geostationary Satellite Transponder Market: Market Drivers Ranked in Order of Impact (North America), 2002-2009

Commercial Geostationary Satellite Transponder Market: Market Restraints Ranked in Order of Impact (North America), 2002-2009

Total Leased Transponders and Total Revenues (North America), 1999-2009

C-Band Leased Transponders and C-Band Revenues (North America), 1999-2009

Ku-Band Leased Transponders and Ku-Band Revenues (North America), 1999-2009

Ka-Band Leased Transponders and Ka-Band Revenues (North America), 1999-2009

Total Supply vs. Total Leased Transponders and Utilization Rate (North America), 1999-2009

C-Band Supply vs. C-Band Leased Transponders and Utilization Rate (North America), 1999-2009

Ku-Band Supply vs. Ku-Band Leased Transponders and Utilization Rate (North America), 1999-2009

Ka-Band Supply vs. Ka-Band Leased Transponders and Utilization Rate (North America), 1999-2009

Total Leased Transponders by Application (North America), 1999-2009

C-Band Leased Transponders by Application (North America), 1999-2009

Ku-Band Leased Transponders by Application (North America), 1999-2009

Ka-Band Leased Transponders by Application (North America), 1999-2009

Demand Drivers for Video, Telephony, Networking and Internet Trunking Applications (North America), 2002

C- and Ku-Band Transponder Price Range for Video, Telephony and Networking Applications (North America), 2003

Price Decline in Undersea Fiber Capacity Scaled to Transponder Equivalents (North America), 2001-2003

Transponder Equivalent Lease Rates for C- and Ku-Bands (North America), 1999-2009

The Gutting of Skynet (World), 2002

Intelsat Boosts North American Presence (World), 2002

Intelsat Boosts Video Presence (World), 2002



Chapter 3



Satellite Technology, Regulations and Operators Serving North America

Communication Satellite Frequency Band Allocations (World), 2003

Competitive Structure of the Satellite Transponder Market (North America), 2003

Satellite Operators Covering North America and Fleet Numbers (North America),

2003

Binariang's Fleet, Launch Date, EoL, Orbital Location, and TPE's by Frequency Band (World), 2003

Eutelsat's Fleet, Launch Date, EoL, Orbital Location, and TPE's by Frequency Band (World), 2003

France Telecom's Fleet, Launch Date, EoL, Orbital Location, and TPE's by Frequency Band (World), 2003

Hispamar's Fleet, Launch Date, EoL, Orbital Location, and TPE's by Frequency Band (World), 2003

Hispasat's Fleet, Launch Date, EoL, Orbital Location, and TPE's by Frequency Band (World), 2003

Intelsat's Fleet, Launch Date, EoL, Orbital Location, and TPE's by Frequency Band (World), 2003

JSAT's Fleet, Launch Date, EoL, Orbital Location, and TPE's by Frequency Band (World), 2003

Loral Skynet's Fleet, Launch Date, EoL, Orbital Location, and TPE's by Frequency Band (World), 2003

Loral Skynet do Brasil's Fleet, Launch Date, EoL, Orbital Location, and TPE's by Frequency Band (World), 2003

Mabuhay's Fleet, Launch Date, EoL, Orbital Location, and TPE's by Frequency Band (World), 2003

Nahuelsat's Fleet, Launch Date, EoL, Orbital Location, and TPE's by Frequency Band (World), 2003

New Skies' Fleet, Launch Date, EoL, Orbital Location, and TPE's by Frequency Band (World), 2003

PanAmSat's Fleet, Launch Date, EoL, Orbital Location, and TPE's by Frequency Band (World), 2003

RSCC's Fleet, Launch Date, EoL, Orbital Location, and TPE's by Frequency Band (World), 2003

SatMex's Fleet, Launch Date, EoL, Orbital Location, and TPE's by Frequency Band (World), 2003

SCC's Fleet, Launch Date, EoL, Orbital Location, and TPE's by Frequency Band (World), 2003

SES Americom's Fleet, Launch Date, EoL, Orbital Location, and TPE's by Frequency Band (World), 2003

Spacecom's Fleet, Launch Date, EoL, Orbital Location, and TPE's by Frequency Band (World), 2003

Star One's Fleet, Launch Date, EoL, Orbital Location, and TPE's by Frequency Band (World), 2003

Telesat's Fleet, Launch Date, EoL, Orbital Location, and TPE's by Frequency Band (World), 2003

Satellite Operator Market Share by Leased Capacity: Total Transponder Equivalents (North America), 2002

Satellite Operator Market Share by Leased Capacity: C-Band Transponder Equivalents (North America), 2002

Satellite Operator Market Share by Leased Capacity: Ku-Band Transponder Equivalents (North America), 2002

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