U.S. Wireless Carrier 2003 Service Provider Analysis: A Snapshot of Carrier Metrics and Key Future Indicators

This IDC study presents a competitive analysis of the major U.S. wireless carriers for the full year 2003. Standard industry operating metrics (including net subscriber additions, ARPU, churn, CPGA, CCPU, and MOU) as reported by the carriers are used as the framework for a discussion of the state of the wireless industry and the outlook for future growth. Individual carrier operating results for their domestic operations are provided for the major national carriers ? Verizon Wireless, Cingular Wireless, AT&T Wireless, Sprint PCS, T-Mobile USA, and Nextel ? as well as second-tier carriers ? ALLTEL, U.S. Cellular, TracFone Wireless, Dobson Communications, Leap Wireless, Virgin Mobile, Western Wireless, and Qwest Wireless ? with sequential quarter and year-to-year comparisons. Additionally, IDC provides weighted 2003 industry averages for many of these key metrics.

At the close of 2003, the number of U.S. wireless subscribers was just under 154 million, albeit at a declining annual growth rate of 7.9%. The top-tier national carriers are no longer adding subscribers at the sustained rates of the past, and other metrics such as ARPU, CPGA, and churn are becoming a more critical basis upon which to assess their relative strengths, weaknesses, challenges, and opportunities.

"For the wireless carriers as well as their customers, 2003 was a year of substantial change. WLNP, slowing revenue, and subscriber growth, the rise of data service revenue, and the emergence of successful MVNO models are just some of the key trends and factors that affected the market. Keeping churn down while building a strong base of loyal, high-value customers will be critical heading into 2004." ? Lewis Ward, senior research analyst of IDC's Wireless and Mobile Communications program.