Personal Computing in Western Europe, Forecast and Analysis, 2006-2010

The Western European PC market continued to demonstrate strength in 2005 as overall shipments reached over 47 million units, representing a solid 16.3% increase year on year.

"While the notebook momentum is expected to continue, overall growth in Western Europe is set to display more moderate levels at 9.9% in 2006 and 8.1% in 2007," said Eszter Morvay, research analyst for IDC's EMEA Quarterly PC Research Group.

Desktop sales will continue to decelerate while maintaining positive trends at 1.3% in 2006 and 2.2% in 2007. Demand will remain constrained in 2006 by a lack of large-scale corporate rollouts and an ongoing transition to mobility in the SMB space, while consumer trends may also be slower this year. Traction around new Media Center and digital home solutions will continue but the delay of the launch of Vista may lead to "wait and see" attitudes and affect consumer demand levels in 2006. However, in 2007, the market will start to benefit from the next corporate refresh wave as well as the migration trends to Vista.

Notebook sales will remain buoyant over the forecast period, and are expected to increase by 21.5% in 2006 and 14.8% in 2007. However, continued price erosion will result in much softer trends in revenue terms. Private purchases will remain the key driver of growth with attractive prices stimulating first-time buyers as well as a growing renewal market. Commercial notebook sales will display double-digit trends as portable adoption continues unabated in SMBs along with growing demand in the corporate sector. Increasing integrated wireless solutions will also assist further portable adoption across all segments.

"Beyond 2008, the market will become increasingly dependent on replacement demand. However the evaluation of new client form factors across both the business and consumer segments will continue to represent major opportunities. A fierce competitive environment and declining profit margins will nevertheless remain a key challenge for industry players," she added.