U.S. Consumer ISP 2006-2010 Forecast and Analysis: From Access to Audience

This IDC study presents our five-year forecast for the U.S. consumer ISP market. The market for consumer ISP web connections is undergoing dramatic change; broadband connections are on the upsurge and dial-up connections are declining.

In this document, you will learn what will be the change in total consumer Internet access accounts and in consumer Internet access spending over the five years of the forecast (2006-2010).

Although dial service is declining, it will persist well beyond our forecast horizon (2010) since it serves the needs of those without credit cards and those who value the lowest monthly subscription charges.

The growth in the market for consumer ISP web connections is driven by population growth, demographics (young adults "replacing" an older generation), and enthusiastic user uptake of bandwidth-hungry applications such as downloads of network content such as music, video, TV, and movies and uploads of user-created content such as music, photos, and videos.

"The ISP market is changing dramatically as customers abandon narrowband dial-up for broadband connections to the Internet and as the leading ISPs diversify their business models from access to a mix of subscription fees and sponsored/advertising fees. An emerging opportunity is presented by wireless broadband technologies such as WiFi and WiMAX, which removes dependency on local telco or cable company networks and enable ISPs to gain a more economical access option," says Mark Winther, research analyst, IDC.