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New Zealand Telecommunications Market 2008-2012 Forecast and AnalysisProduct Type: Market Research ReportPublished by: IDC Published: May 2008 Product Code: R104-33859 Description
This IDC study is the first integrated market analysis and forecast for New Zealand's telecommunications market, which is an in-depth study of the current and future opportunities and challenges facing the New Zealand market for the next five years. We evaluate in detail international trends, macro-economic factors including regulation, competition, technologies, and services. These underpin our detailed market development scenario and forecast assumptions for New Zealand's broadband, voice, and mobile markets. "The New Zealand market is on the cusp of change. The industry to date has been marked with dissension and bitter infighting. A year of further infighting, legal and regulatory challenge, and inward focus will slow rather than speed development: the potential now is for carriers to learn from the mistakes in overseas markets and refocus back on the customer, collaborating as an industry where necessary whilst competing fiercely for the customer," says Rosalie Nelson, research manager, Telecommunications, IDC New Zealand. "IDC is assuming steady rather than stellar competitive growth. We anticipate the emergence of new full-service competitors eroding Telecom's market share, but Telecom will continue to be the most powerful market player unless there is a truly disruptive change through acquisition or consolidation amongst the market leaders." Table of Contents
Table of ContentsIDC Opinion In This Study Methodology Situation Overview The New Zealand Market Today International context Broadband: Running Hard to Bring Up the Rear Figure: New Zealand Internet Connections, 2005?2007 Figure: Broadband Growth and Penetration in Developed Broadband Markets Figure: New Zealand Versus OECD Broadband Penetration The Throttle on Speed Voice Services: An Emerging Battleground Figure: New Zealand PSTN Access Lines and Revenues, 2005?2007 Figure: Percentage Change in PSTN Access Lines and Revenues, 2006?2007 Mobile Market ? Saturated but Costly Figure: Mobile Subscriber Growth and Blended ARPU Macroeconomic Factors Broadband Becomes a Political Platform Public and Economic Benefits Versus Competitive Market Outcomes Regulatory Initiatives Table: New regulation: Opportunities and challenges Capital and Labour Constraints: Can We Deliver on Time? New Zealand's Competitive Landscape The Landgrab Is on Figure: New Zealand Market Share Splits, September 2007 Figure: Telco Market Revenue Share The Market Restructures for Full-Service Competition Figure: Competitor's Market Positioning and Telecom's Response Competitive Platforms: Access or Services? Figure: Positioning of Competitor Groups in New Zealand Services Development New Zealand's New-Wave Services: Are We Ready? Figure: New Zealand Telecom Services Capability Table: New Services Development: Risks and Opportunities Technology The Broadband Soup Table: Technologies and Capabilities Squeezing the Most out of Copper Figure: Impact of Distance on xDSL Technology and Capability Short-Circuiting the Copper Loop Figure: Cabinetisation Plan Next-Generation Networks: Creating Lasagna out of Spaghetti 3G Versus WiMAX Future Outlook Market Development Scenario and Forecast Scenario One: Competitive Status Quo Scenario Two: Proliferation then Consolidation Scenario Three: Strong Broadband Growth, Steady Competition Forecast and Assumptions Table: Key Forecast Assumptions for the New Zealand Telco Market, 2008-2012 Broadband Forecasts: Strong Growth but Pressure on ARPU Figure: New Zealand Broadband Penetration Figure: Broadband Penetration Forecast: NZ Versus OECD Average Technology Development Figure: Internet Connection Technology Type Revenue Growth Driven by New Subscribers Figure: New Zealand Broadband Subscriber and Revenue Growth Figure: New Zealand Internet Subscribers Versus ARPU Fixed Telephony Forecasts: A Long, Slow Decline Figure: Access Lines and Calling Service Type Figure: Calling Type Revenue Cellular Forecasts: 3G Services Take Centre Stage Figure: Mobile Subscriber Penetration Figure: Mobile Subscriber Growth (Air Interface) Mobile Remains a Duopoly Figure: New Zealand Mobile Market Share Forecast Essential Guidance Learn More Related Research Synopsis |
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