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Validating Consumer Credit Risk Models: What Methods Are Relevant to Assuring Your Model's Stability in a Volatile Business Environment

Product Type: Market Research Report
Published by: IDC
Published: April 2009
Product Code: R104-39227
Description

This Financial Insights report details why a validation is essential, the appropriate steps to carry out a validation analysis, and who the business constituents are that rely on validations and also details what we mean by model "performance."

"As the global economy struggles in recession, lenders across industry verticals should closely track and validate their scoring models. During economic times of rapid expansion and contraction, scoring models can degrade in their ability to make optimal loan recommendations. Sound population and scorecard tracking and validation practices are part of a robust enterprise risk management program." - Dana Wiklund, research director, Global Risk Management

Table of Contents
Table of Contents

Financial Insights Opinion

In This Report

Situation Overview

Variability Within a Population

Consumer Behavior

Who Uses Validations?

Who Should Perform Validation Analytics?

How Validations Fit Within an Enterprise Risk Management Context

Method Specifics

Tracking Through-the-Door Populations

Final Score Report

Figure: Final Score Report

Population Stability

Figure: Population Stability

Characteristic Analysis

Figure: Characteristic Level Changes

Interval Bad Rates

Figure: Interval Bad Rate Analysis

Validation Sample

Components of a Score Validation

Statistical Measures Used in Score Validations

Kolmogorov-Smirnov Statistic

Figure: Kolmogorov-Smirnov Statistic

Divergence

Figure: Divergence

Predictiveness Index

Figure: Predictiveness Index

Information Value

Figure: Information Value

Future Outlook

Essential Guidance

Actions to Consider

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